Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

Not far right wing enough to be seen as a 'symptom'?

[PJL]

I'm starting to think Corbyn may be more electable than many people realise. I was expecting a big surge to the Lib Dems after the referendum (say to about 15% or so), but recent post referendum polls still show them in single figures. In some respects this is concerning as it suggests Britain is perhaps more divided than at any time since the 1970s. In that atmosphere I think a breakaway Labour group could well fare badly (much more so the Corbyn's Labour is doing which is bobbing around 30% or so).

Not I'm saying he's going to win anytime soon, but if the economy tanks badly due to the Tories, and if Britain continues to be this divided, I can actually see Corbyn becoming the PM after May / Leadsom, even after all that has happened. In fact I'm not even sure a hard left Labour party would fare that badly in an election. We are definitely living in an era where moderates are out of favour (which is also why i won't rule out Leadsom as next PM either).

[The Minsky Moment]

You've mentioned the monetization idea before.  Would you stop at Greece, and if so, why? 

Personally I wouldn't and the ECB hasn't.  They've spent billions buying securities for no purpose other than to generate higher inflation.  So why not at least solve another policy problem at the same time by buying the Greek debt?  [aside from legal constraint of course]

That said, Greece is categorically different; its the only country where the debt load reaches the level of unsustainability and where there has been no recovery.

Of course a write down increases German debt.  Their contribution to the bailout was financed through bonds issued by a special purpose institution, guaranteed by Germany.

Good point, I had forgotten about that crazy arrangement.  But the mark to market point still stands.  Formally writing down doesn't change the underlying reality.  If Germany is currently recognizing the value of those obligations at zero than they are misvaluing their own debt right now.

[Tamas]

Corbyn talks and acts like a Soviet/Russian agent. Him becoming PM would be an utter catastrophe.

[dps]

I side with the elite over the proles, always. Unsure as to why people would want to glorify the stupid.

It's not like the elites are all that smart themselves.  Sure, some of them are, but some of them are among the dumbest people on the planet.

[Valmy]

I side with the elite over the proles, always. Unsure as to why people would want to glorify the stupid.

It's not like the elites are all that smart themselves.  Sure, some of them are, but some of them are among the dumbest people on the planet.

True. But at least they are marginally better informed.

[PJL]

Corbyn talks and acts like a Soviet/Russian agent. Him becoming PM would be an utter catastrophe.

Yeah, he'd split the country, cause a major crash, create big divisions within society, just for some short term political advantage. Oh wait, that's Cameron.

Two weeks ago I would have said Corbyn would have been worse than Cameron. Now I doubt that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The big divisions were already there. My indictment of Cameron would be that he had little or no idea that they existed.

[mongers]

The big divisions were already there. My indictment of Cameron would be that he had little or no idea that they existed.

Indeed, perhaps the definition of an out of touch toff.   

[mongers]

So the UK gets a woman PM in September.

[Admiral Yi]

So why not at least solve another policy problem at the same time by buying the Greek debt?  [aside from legal constraint of course]

Because of the fairness issue.

Good point, I had forgotten about that crazy arrangement.  But the mark to market point still stands.  Formally writing down doesn't change the underlying reality.  If Germany is currently recognizing the value of those obligations at zero than they are misvaluing their own debt right now.

Certainly.  But it still rebuts your claim that intergovernmental obligations are meaningless book entries.  That is money German taxpayers have pledged to repay.

[fromtia]

I have been reading this thread closely, and it's fascinating and everyone has very interesting things to say.

I'm horrified by brexit, of course and the ensuing Monster movie/Car crash that is apparently going to go on for a long time is impossible to look away from.

In about 1991 or so, I studied modern history for an A level at Cambridge Regional College. I was unfortunate to have to study Corn Law and Captain Swing as a part of that course, but fortunate enough to have been taught by an accomplished scholar of that period, one Mike Murphy. He was hilarious, and quite the firebrand. He would often reflect at length on current British politics and compare them to the politics of the 1830's.  There are two things he said that have always stayed with me.

1. The British ruling class of the 1830's were profoundly religious in a way it is hard for contemporary Britons of the working and middle class to understand.

2. The question of what extent to be involved in Europe is a central question of British politics and in the modern era divides the Conservative party. It will come to a head at some point and will be a catastrophe when it does.

"Woah", I keep saying to myself.

Also: Theresa May....holy shit, she is nasty isn't she? I think they trundled out Leadsom just so we wouldn't notice by dint of Leadsoms awfulness that May is wearing a human skin and has burning coals for eyes.

[The Minsky Moment]

So why not at least solve another policy problem at the same time by buying the Greek debt?  [aside from legal constraint of course]

Because of the fairness issue.

The unfairness being?

[Sheilbh]

It's a reference to Shelf's theories about Brexit leading to both a more pronounced English (as opposed to British) nationalism and consequently a rise in national/ethnic tolerance.

I think English nationalism started rising as a force when the Labour government started depending on Scottish votes on health and education policy that only affected England but which are devolved matters to the Scottish Parliament. Similarly I really noticed it when Gordon Brown was PM. If a Scot can't be British PM then what's the point of the union?

But I think it's been growing since then and Brexit was a vote where every region in England, but London, when for remain. You exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland and this wasn't a close referendum.

A consequence of it will quite possibly be that England is itself alone and we need to work out what England is and who is 'the English' because we can hardly pretend to be Britain when Ireland reunites and Scotland declares independence. I hope and think that English nationalism will be something that everyone can own - like Irish nationalism - and that it will be explicitly civil - like in Scotland, the US, Australia etc - but I don't think it's something we can avoid having a row about.

I hate anti-elitism and think snobbishness is a symptom not a cause. It's easier and more comforting to blame elitist snobs in their ivory towers and their lawyer politicians.

I don't like inverse snobbery either but I'm on Languish and I don't know any Leave voters. The chance of me encountering someone moaning about experts (despite their justifiably strained reputation) is fairly slim.

Not far right wing enough to be seen as a 'symptom'?

Thatcher was a symptom. The Lib Dems are an infection.

And it's not a right-left thing. I include Syriza and Podemos and possibly Corbyn when I'm talking about populism.

Fromtia:
There was a piece on the BBC today basically asking is this an issue of free trade v nationalism in which case it's a big issue for the Tories because the last time they split over the Corn Laws it was the same; or is it an issue of class in which case it's a big issue for Labour.

I'm not sure what I think yet.

[Sheilbh]

And on the whole snobbishness page, the front page of a new paper launching tomorrow: