Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, the notion that a well-defined national identity helps to reduce hostility against ethnic minorities and/or foreigners goes straight against every empirical evidence of every nation ever since the birth of nationalism. 

And it's not as if it isn't already pretty clear what is an English identity.

It really really isn't. Scotland and Ireland and Wales have a very clear identity. England doesn't, or at least not one that is entirely accepted. 80% of people who identified as 'English' not 'British' voted Leave (and 64% for 'more English than British'). 60% of 'British' identifying people voted Remain.

Remember the big, ridiculous Labour scandal of the Shadow Minister who had to step down after tweeting the picture of the house with three English flags.

Englishness has been emerging for a while but for a long time it was something that was reserved for international football tournaments and was associated with the far-right, football hooliganism etc. Now Scotland may be leaving people like me - who would never say we were English - are going to have to get used to it and England will, to nick the Irish phrase, need to learn to be ourselves alone. That identity is going to have to change.

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, the notion that a well-defined national identity helps to reduce hostility against ethnic minorities and/or foreigners goes straight against every empirical evidence of every nation ever since the birth of nationalism. 

Ethnic national identity - yes. I'm talking about civic nationalism - as in Scotland, to an extent Ireland, the US, Canada, Australia, arguably, potentially France.

I think English nationalism has happened. That's why we left, now we need to make sure it becomes the civic type not the ethnic. I think this is similar to the moments in European history that the UK (with the exception of Ireland) skipped because we were building a 'British' Empire. The decline of that common project is at least party why I think Scottish nationalism has risen and I think it's similar with England now.

[The Minsky Moment]

I see people mention greece a lot but really don't get how the eu is somehow to blame there.
Europe stopped greece from going under.

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

[Sheilbh]

I see people mention greece a lot but really don't get how the eu is somehow to blame there.
Europe stopped greece from going under.

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

Quite. Lagarde after the latest round when asked about the debt relief agreement that had apparently been worked out, 'which debt relief agreement?'

[garbon]

I see people mention greece a lot but really don't get how the eu is somehow to blame there.
Europe stopped greece from going under.

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

If that was done, would Greece's problems just go away?

[Admiral Yi]

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

The debt is de facto being written down through the principal and interest moritorium.

And of course this is not the argument being made by your typical "austerity is evil" opponent of the bailouts.

[The Larch]

Sheilbh, the notion that a well-defined national identity helps to reduce hostility against ethnic minorities and/or foreigners goes straight against every empirical evidence of every nation ever since the birth of nationalism. 

And it's not as if it isn't already pretty clear what is an English identity.

It really really isn't. Scotland and Ireland and Wales have a very clear identity. England doesn't, or at least not one that is entirely accepted. 80% of people who identified as 'English' not 'British' voted Leave (and 64% for 'more English than British'). 60% of 'British' identifying people voted Remain.

Remember the big, ridiculous Labour scandal of the Shadow Minister who had to step down after tweeting the picture of the house with three English flags.

Englishness has been emerging for a while but for a long time it was something that was reserved for international football tournaments and was associated with the far-right, football hooliganism etc. Now Scotland may be leaving people like me - who would never say we were English - are going to have to get used to it and England will, to nick the Irish phrase, need to learn to be ourselves alone. That identity is going to have to change.

I'm not going to pretend to be knowledgeable enough and correctly evaluate all the issues you're bringing to the picture, but from the outside this dilemma seems pretty obvious and not such a conundrum as you make it up to be.

[Sheilbh]

I see people mention greece a lot but really don't get how the eu is somehow to blame there.
Europe stopped greece from going under.

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

If that was done, would Greece's problems just go away?

God no

They need to leave the Euro, they need extensive structural reforms (especially structural reforms of the left), debt restructuring and a huge devaluation in my opinion. But piling debt on debt isn't helping anyone, it's just stoking resentment from creditors who're 'lending' money that'll never be repaid and debtors who are saddle with debts that can never be repaid.

There's an idea that Greece is always the at the forefront of modernising, emerging Europe, they then catastrophically over-reach, suffer humiliating collapse but still come off better than when they started. So you know, Greece was the first nationalist rebellion in Europe (and the first to attract foreign support) and the first to tie nationalism to constitutionalism; then they deal with huge population displacement after the First World War in an incredible way (again a result of over-reaching) that sets the precedent for a lot of European population exchanges; then the Greek civil war is the first frontline of the Cold War in many ways; then their democratisation in 67-74 sets the trend that happens elsewhere in southern Europe and the world. Arguably their full integration into the European project fits that pattern, they weren't ready, they didn't really meet the rules and it was Europe as a tool for modernisation and identity - I think that trend has happened elsewhere in the EU too. Sadly I'm not sure they'll still come out ahead this time.

[The Minsky Moment]

The debt is de facto being written down through the principal and interest moritorium..

Worst of both worlds.  That is the very definition of kicking the can

[The Minsky Moment]

it's just stoking resentment from creditors who're 'lending' money that'll never be repaid and debtors who are saddle with debts that can never be repaid.

I believe at this point the vast majority of the debt is held by European governments and quasi-government bodies, so this isn't really an issue anymore.  The private creditors were already bailed out by the Euro governments so the moral hazard ship has already sailed.  What is really at stake now is what set of economically meaningless numbers will be recorded on an institutional balance sheet.  There is no economic or policy rationale for foot-dragging on a write-down.  The obstacles are political.

[Admiral Yi]

Worst of both worlds.  That is the very definition of kicking the can

What are the two worlds of which you speak?

[Admiral Yi]

I believe at this point the vast majority of the debt is held by European governments and quasi-government bodies, so this isn't really an issue anymore.  The private creditors were already bailed out by the Euro governments so the moral hazard ship has already sailed.  What is really at stake now is what set of economically meaningless numbers will be recorded on an institutional balance sheet.  There is no economic or policy rationale for foot-dragging on a write-down.  The obstacles are political.

If the German national debt or tax bill (to which the bailout loans are directly tied) are meaningless numbers then obviously so is Greek indebtedness, and you have no reason to complain about it.

[Sheilbh]

it's just stoking resentment from creditors who're 'lending' money that'll never be repaid and debtors who are saddle with debts that can never be repaid.

I believe at this point the vast majority of the debt is held by European governments and quasi-government bodies, so this isn't really an issue anymore.  The private creditors were already bailed out by the Euro governments so the moral hazard ship has already sailed.  What is really at stake now is what set of economically meaningless numbers will be recorded on an institutional balance sheet.  There is no economic or policy rationale for foot-dragging on a write-down.  The obstacles are political.

Exactly. But that's what I mean is it's stoking resentment from 'creditors' who are ultimately European governments with electorates. The more debt that gets piked on the more the political narrative of 'lazy, good-for-nothing Greeks' gets reinforced and the more difficult it gets to resolve the issue. And the Greeks are left with unpayable, fictional debts.

Incidentally for I see my optimism is shared with my least favourite columnist who I always disagree with and am reconsidering as we speak
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

[Sheilbh]

I don't think nationalism is necessarily a bad thing. I actually think the lack of a 'national' identity for England has been a problem for some time and has led to the festering disenchantment of many people. I think we now actually have to have the fight of what Englishness is and what England is about - I think this could be the biggest issue of the next several years, especially if Scotland leaves. For myself I support and hope that an open, civic nationalism of the type that's emerged in Scotland and Ireland will win.

Heh, when I think of Irish nationalism "open" and "civic" are not the words that come to my mind. I think of the IRA. But then I must admit I don't know a lot about Ireland. Maybe they have this positive open, civic nationalism that somehow contributes to curing xenophobia. 

Sorry just saw this and realised I'd not said what I meant. All politics and all people I know in Ireland identify as nationalist. Every Taoiseach who has ever gone to Brussels is a nationalist.

So that includes the xenophobia and the anti-xenophobes, they're just different shades of Irish nationalism. I think Scottish nationalism is civic, and we have to make English nationalism the same especially if the UK does break up.

[viper37]

I see people mention greece a lot but really don't get how the eu is somehow to blame there.
Europe stopped greece from going under.

Kicked the can down the road/swept problem under rug/metaphor of your choice.
That problem is not going away b/c of refusal to write down the unsustainable debt load.

If that was done, would Greece's problems just go away?

For the next 20-30 years?  Sure.  They'd go back into debt, doing the exact same thing.  If you put your hand on the stove and it does not burn, you do it again.  Once part of your flesh stays there, you never do it again.