Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I am really hoping there will be an election this year, and the LibDems, maybe in coalition with Corbyn-less Labour (be that the Labour party or the non-Stalinists who left it), run with the explicit promise of ignoring the referendum and staying in the EU.

If they win (which they won't) that would be a clear mandate to reverse the whole thing. I can't see any other solution where ignoring the referendum wouldn't cause far more chaos and shit than an actual Brexit.

Then all the tories have to do is promise to totally cut all ties with the eu then laugh as the left wing vote is split.

[Valmy]

A Brit friend of mine shared this 2 year old article yesterday in the aftermath of the whole shebang we're in. What do you think about it?

Sounds absolutely ridiculous. British leadership only got shitty the exact same time everybody else's did. And in any case this is being driven by populist uprisings, that exact same as everywhere else. International forces are at play not some weird quirk of the British elite.

Not that I don't think boarding schools are terrible mind you.

Nevertheless, this golden path is as sure today as it was 100 years ago, when men from such backgrounds led us into a disastrous war

This is especially eye rolling. Britain was hardly a leader in getting that started and they had absolutely no choice in the matter once Germany invaded Belgium. But suddenly boarding school is responsible? Laughable.

[Admiral Yi]

Any thoughts on what a reasonable or fair deal would look like?

I think a strong argument could be made for nothing at all.  Britain doesn't have much in the way of cards to play.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Eh, Britain is a county of 60m whose largest source of imports are EU countries. Rational heads like Merkel's aren't going to want to have no deal at all with Britain.

The "worst case" for all parties would be a simple free trade agreement, with nothing else (none of the policy integration, no customs union etc.) That would essentially mean no tariffs, which would at least remove a "disastrous" economically harmful trade barrier. But it would also mean Britain receives none of the other benefits to the EU. An FTA would be unlikely to be that controversial in Brussels, the EU is on the verge of doing an FTA with America just as an example (I suspect it won't happen given both current Presidential candidates have veered into animosity to trade.)

But the thing is a free trade agreement is nice, but the lion's share of benefit to EU membership isn't tariff free trade. America for example has that with Mexico and Canada, but there are still significant trade barriers between the three countries. The EU's trade and commerce regulations, which are much maligned, actually represent the framework for reducing trade barriers to the point that doing business in France vs Italy is a lot closer to the difference between doing business in California vs Michigan than it is Canada vs the United States. It's a huge boon to any company that sells products and services at a regional or global scale--and even the small businesses that primarily only serve local foot traffic even benefit because the EU makes free movement of people possible, which increases potential visitors and tourism.

Britain taking just an FTA would, in my opinion, be seen as a pretty harsh outcome by any observer.

[Admiral Yi]

Anyone happen to know anything about EU tariffs?  I know they're sky-high on agriculture, but no clue about manufactured goods.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Anyone happen to know anything about EU tariffs?  I know they're sky-high on agriculture, but no clue about manufactured goods.

I was reading a long document that said if Britain left and got no deal at all (not even a FTA) then they'd be subject to WTO rules.

Under that regime food imports would face an average 15% tariff, 10% tariff on cars.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The tariffs are not huge, but are a big minus for any third party wanting to use the UK as a bridgehead for trading with Europe. Most of our car industry is Japanese-owned and sells massively to Europe, the Japanese might be thinking they chose the wrong country to invest in now,

[CountDeMoney]

What I want to know is how it's going to affect the foundation of English industry, particularly the cornerstone of its exports to the United States: Princess Diana commemorative plates.

[Admiral Yi]

I was reading a long document that said if Britain left and got no deal at all (not even a FTA) then they'd be subject to WTO rules.

Under that regime food imports would face an average 15% tariff, 10% tariff on cars.

Last time I read about CAP (admittedly a long time ago) agricultural tariffs were much higher than that, more on the order of 40-60%.  Perhaps a distinction between processed food and ag commodities?

[Zanza]

Every single commodity group has its own tariff ratio and special rules.

[derspiess]

What I want to know is how it's going to affect the foundation of English industry, particularly the cornerstone of its exports to the United States: Princess Diana commemorative plates.

disclaimer: Not all plates increase in value.  Some go down.

[OttoVonBismarck]

This indicates average food tariff of 15%. I'd guess it's like America, some food imports we hardly tax at all, and others (due to politics usually) we tax insanely. For example we have a "sugar quota", a small amount can be imported at a lower tariff rate but once the quota is hit, a stupid-high tariff kicks in. 88% on unrefined sugar and 73% for refined. Incidentally almost 90% of sugar sold in the U.S. is produced here.

And we pay about a 33% higher price in supermarkets for sugar than the rest of the world, but we do protect sugar growers (1/5th of 1% of all U.S. farmers.)  And thus also why most processed foods in America are sweetened with corn syrup.

[CountDeMoney]

What I want to know is how it's going to affect the foundation of English industry, particularly the cornerstone of its exports to the United States: Princess Diana commemorative plates.

disclaimer: Not all plates increase in value.  Some go down.

I CALL BULLSHIT ON THAT

[Zanza]

Rational heads like Merkel's aren't going to want to have no deal at all with Britain.

I am not really sure what the international image of Merkel is these days. But it helps to consider that she ultimately oversaw the last time the EU reacted to a referendum. That was when the Greeks got really harsh terms after voting "No" to another deal with the EU. She is rational, but she is also really cold in her political considerations.

[Iormlund]

Best deal for England is probably going to be rather complex, unless the next PM wants to cheat his or her way out of it and go for a Norway. Many little things need to be addressed, such as how are expats going to get health coverage or establishing fishing quotas (to put examples already mentioned).