Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

"It was taking an American-style media approach," said Banks. "What they said early on was 'facts don't work' and that's it. The remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn't work. You have got to connect with people emotionally. It's the Trump success."

At least for America, and sadly now for Britain, this is amazingly apt.

[PJL]

If I were the Lib Dems, I'd do some sort of arrangement with the SNP (especially now the Scots LDs are warming to Scots independence). Basically they could form a pro EU alliance (at least in Westminster and perhaps in Scotland as well).

[Sheilbh]

For fuck's sake:

Revealed: Labour MPs go to police over death threats after refusal to back Jeremy Corbyn
Ben Riley-Smith, political correspondent
29 JUNE 2016 • 9:22PM

Labour MPs have been forced to call in the police over death threats in the last 48 hours after they refused to back Jeremy Corbyn, The Telegraph has learnt.

Vicky Foxcroft, a Labour whip, received a call to her constituency office which said: "If she doesn't support Corbyn I will come down to the office and kick the f*** out of you."

Police officers had to rush her office, close the shutters and attempt to trace the call after the man said he was on his way and hung up.

Another MP who resigned over Mr Corbyn's leadership has received an email naming their child and threatening to kill them. Police have been passed the message and are now investigating.

Lucy Powell, the former shadow education secretary, received a message telling her to kill herself after announcing she would leave the frontbench over frustrations with the leadership.

It was among a string of messages laden with expletives and personal abuse which have been passed onto police.

A fourth Labour MP said they had become so concerned with the torrent of online abuse that they have forwarded the messages to police, while scores of others raised concerns.

The rhetoric of Mr Corbyn's supporters has been criticised after John McDonnell initially encouraged activists to protest MPs – but later made clear he did not condone constituency office protests.

One former frontbencher has tabled a formal complaint to the Labour chief whip about the way some pro-Corbyn MPs have been addressing activists at rallies.

The spike in hostile messages was compared to the surge in the run-up to the Syrian air strikes vote last year, which led to a new security package for MPs being issued amid concerns over safety.

Politicians and staff were said to be in tears over the abuse comes just weeks after the brutal murder of Jo Cox, the Labour MP for Batley and Spen who was shot and stabbed in her constituency.

A Labour source said: "Women MPs have been subjected to the most vile stuff – we're going to rape you, kill you. There have been people in tears today."

The call to Ms Foxcroft's constituency office in Lewisham, south London, was made on Tuesday during which a man called demanded to know whether she backed Mr Corbyn. She is a whip and therefore remains neutral.

When the case worker – who is in his twenties – did not reveal her position the man became agitated, promised to "kick the f***" out of staff and said he was heading to the office.

Ms Foxcroft told The Telegraph: "As an MP, your skin gets pretty thick, pretty quickly. But when John McDonnell calls on Momentum activists to campaign against their MP's, it doesn't take that much for people to feel like they should take things into their own hands.

"My staff work hard to provide support for hundreds of my constituents. They don't need this level of abuse and threatening behaviour. Understandably, it has been quite a worrying time for them in recent weeks. I sincerely hope this is the last of the aggression they will have to receive."

A Labour source said that Mr McDonnell had told activists not to protest outside Labour constituency offices and "could not have been clearer" in his opposition.

MPs on all sides of Labour's party split have repeatedly spoken out against online abuse against politicians.

[celedhring]

If I were the Lib Dems, I'd do some sort of arrangement with the SNP (especially now the Scots LDs are warming to Scots independence). Basically they could form a pro EU alliance (at least in Westminster and perhaps in Scotland as well).

I may be colored by our own nationalists' barefaced cynicism, but SNP's support of the EU here is probably more a tool for an aim (independence) than anything else. They'll espouse it as long as it helps to drive a wedge, not a bridge.

[Josquius]

Pretty much.
The rather cool leader of the Scottish tories pointed this out very well earlier today (yesterday ?)

[dps]

They should just have another referendum. See if people are serious about it knowing what they know now and didn't know then.

What, exactly, do they know now that they didn't know then?  That their political leadership is out-of-touch, cynical, and self-serving?  That a Leave win would cause a lot of uncertainty?  That Leave might actually win?  Surely the last one is the only one that they might reasonably not have known the first time around.

[citizen k]

Elites Ignore Real Cause Of Brexit & Trump: Economic Anger Of Working Class

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czE7dkSSFB0

Brexit supporters and Donald Trump supporters are often accused of simply being racist. While true, it's only part of the story. Ignored by the establishment is the economic disenfranchisement of globalization and western style crony capitalism that leaves workers behind and vulnerable to demagoguery.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So I don't think we'll see any actual movement on Scottish independence for years. Rajoy is basically saying he will not even consider a discussion of any kind with Scotland about a special deal to either remain in the EU as a part of Britain (a sort of reverse-Greenland) or to give Scotland any kind of assurances or special path to membership once Brexit is complete. Basically Scotland would probably be looking at a 5-7 year process to get admitted into the EU, and this article suggests there would be serious questions about whether Scotland could even prevail in its efforts in its current economic condition:

Scotland is better off in the UK than on its own in the EU

Brexit could spell the end of the United Kingdom as we know it. After the majority of Scots voted "remain," but the rest of the country opted for "leave," Scotland's leaders suggested the divergence justified another referendum on independence from the UK.

The Scottish National Party (SNP), which is the dominant political player in the north, explicitly states in its manifesto that grounds for another referendum include "Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will." In 2014, 55% of voters in Scotland opted to stay in the UK. But in a post-Brexit poll, 60% of Scots said they'd choose independence if another vote was held.

They may want to reconsider. There is more to lose from leaving the UK than there is to gain from staying in the EU.

Granted, a major benefit of being part of the UK is membership in the EU. Indeed, retaining EU membership became a big part of the 2014 referendum campaign. Back then, it wasn't clear whether the EU would let an independent Scotland into the EU without a lot of hassle, lest it encourage other separatist movements on the continent. Spurned by Brexit, the EU now may be more inclined to offer an expedient path membership to Scotland. But the economic case for Scottish independence is worse today than it was two years ago.

First off, an independent Scotland may not qualify for membership because its deficit-to-GDP ratio is nearly 10%. The EU demands 3% of its members, and even though it gives countries a fair amount of leeway, Scotland's deficit is off the charts.

Scottish consultant Kevin Hague estimates that Scotland receives £9 billion ($12 billion) a year from the UK, or about £1,700 per capita. Scotland spends £1,500 more per capita on its residents than the rest of the UK, in part because of the age structure and rural make-up of the population. Over the past two years, dwindling North Sea oil reserves and falling energy prices have increased Scotland's deficit, increasing its dependence on UK subsidies. Unless prices go back up or more oil is discovered, odds are that an independent Scotland would have to hike taxes or slash spending severely to qualify for EU membership.

That would imply Greek levels of austerity for Scotland, Hague says. It is possible, out of spite for the UK, that the EU would offer Scotland some concessions, but this is unlikely. Going easy on Scotland would be a bitter pill for the countries that have been through wrenching austerity and are already disenchanted with the EU.

The Scottish economy is also more integrated with the UK than the EU. In 2013, about 63% of Scottish exports (excluding oil and gas) went to the rest of the UK (pdf). Only about 17% went to the EU. The UK is arguably a healthier economy (although after Brexit it's hard to predict the impact on growth for both the UK and the EU). Perhaps the UK will remain part of a free-trade zone with the EU and a newly independent Scotland that's an EU member could continue to trade freely with UK, as it does now. But in that case there's no real point, economically speaking, for Scotland to declare independence in the first place.

Money matters

There is also the question of the currency. During the 2014 referendum, the EU may have tolerated Scotland keeping the pound if it joined, even if the rest of the UK insisted that a formal currency union with Scotland was not an option. This time, neither the UK nor the EU would probably want Scotland to stay on sterling. Launching its own currency would be a huge gamble for such a small and vulnerable economy, and joining the euro wouldn't be much better. Adopting the euro would mean losing control of monetary policy tailored to Scotland's circumstances, which could worsen the likely austerity (just look at Greece). Hague says the prospect of adopting the euro "may be jumping from the frying pan and into the fire."

The UK will surely pay a price for leaving the EU, but in relation to Scotland it is a larger economy that's more resilient to negative shocks. Its economy is more diversified than Scotland's and it can finance deficits by borrowing relatively cheaply in international capital markets. Scotland's energy-dependent economy is shakier, the country has less clout on the world stage, and takes a bigger gamble by leaving the UK.

A passionate supporter of the UK staying in the EU, Hague says he is undecided about Scottish independence. His decision will depend on many things: the conditions of EU membership for Scotland; whether a post-Brexit Britain can still afford to subsidize Scotland; and the relationship between the UK and EU once divorce negotiations are over. In spite of the enthusiasm for independence today, Hague says, "it still far from clear that it will be a sensible in light of day when faced with stone hard facts."

[jimmy olsen]

Fascinating feature of this is that Labour might just split into a hard left party and a centrist, pro-European party. Neither of those seems to address the disenfranchisement and alienation of  traditional Labour voting areas. It's very striking.

Wouldn't it make more sense for them to merge with the Lib Dems?

[Admiral Yi]

Elites Ignore Real Cause Of Brexit & Trump: Economic Anger Of Working Class

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czE7dkSSFB0

Brexit supporters and Donald Trump supporters are often accused of simply being racist. While true, it's only part of the story. Ignored by the establishment is the economic disenfranchisement of globalization and western style crony capitalism that leaves workers behind and vulnerable to demagoguery.

It's real hard for me to take someone throws around the term crony capitalism like it's water seriously.

[Valmy]

Elites Ignore Real Cause Of Brexit & Trump: Economic Anger Of Working Class

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czE7dkSSFB0

Brexit supporters and Donald Trump supporters are often accused of simply being racist. While true, it's only part of the story. Ignored by the establishment is the economic disenfranchisement of globalization and western style crony capitalism that leaves workers behind and vulnerable to demagoguery.

And how should this issue be addressed? If anybody had some ideas then maybe they could tell the elites to do that instead of whining vaguely about general vagueness wrapped in unclarity highlighted by buzzwords.

I mean granted we TRIED to address the corruption but the Supreme Court took care of that with their 'money is speech' doctrine.

[CountDeMoney]

And how should this issue be addressed? If anybody had some ideas then maybe they could tell the elites to do that instead of whining vaguely about general vagueness wrapped in unclarity highlighted by buzzwords.

Businesses move production overseas, businesses eliminate jobs to reduce costs and increase shareholder value, businesses intentionally keep wages suppressed and slash benefits because they can....and yet it's government that catches the heat for it all, for everything from trade agreements to excessive regulatory barriers.

Because business would, you know, never do any of these things anyway. Too fucking funny.

[citizen k]

....and yet it's government that catches the heat for it all, for everything from trade agreements to excessive regulatory barriers.

Because business would, you know, never do any of these things anyway. Too fucking funny.

Big Business  =  Government

[CountDeMoney]

Big Business  =  Government

This Post = Bullshit

[Tamas]

Big Business  =  Government

This Post = Bullshit

yeah. Why assume that the most powerful interest group would be able to extort the most influence over the most influential institution, i.e. the government.