Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Sure but that's not what caused hundreds of thousands to wait until ten to midnight to register and then crash the system.

[mongers]

Sure but that's not what caused hundreds of thousands to wait until ten to midnight to register and then crash the system.

Yes you right, but I was also imply Cameron was taking advantage of the problem to give those predominantly young voters another 36-48 hour to register. Because being the great visionary politician that he is, 'Britain Stronger in Europe'* have only just realised the fix they're in.


* Maybe one of the worst campaign names in recent UK politics?

[alfred russel]

Why even have the vote? Just Cameron pandering to get elected?

[Razgovory]

I've not been following this, but is there just some kind of movement in the UK to put bizarre ideas on referendum every few years?

[Capetan Mihali]

I was wondering how this referendum came about, myself.  Were signatures collected?  Or did some elected official put it forward?  (If so, which ones can?)

[MadImmortalMan]

I thought the promise to have the referendum was one of the things that got Cameron elected.

[Zanza]

I was wondering how this referendum came about, myself.  Were signatures collected?  Or did some elected official put it forward?  (If so, which ones can?)

David Cameron himself promised it and HM government now holds it. No signatures necessary as it is a normal act of government. However the result is not a binding law merely an expression of opinion for the House of Commons to act upon.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It has been simultaneously very boring and worrying, I hope the current trend for referenda is reversed after this fiasco. The reasons given by many people I've spoken too for their yea or nay are often ridiculous or based on misconceptions. The whole business is too democratic for my tastes, they'll be voting to slaughter the population of Melos next 

[Martinus]

But Switzerland, like Norway, is a party to Schengen without being in the EU, so I don't see how the EU's freedom of movement principles would apply.

Yes, but Schengen is an agreement with the EU (and one which the Brexit crowd has some issues with, if I understand it correctly). It may be possible that the UK could negotiate a Schengen like agreement with Switzterland (if it wanted to), but it seems unlikely that a EU based agreement would continue without a hitch between two non-EU countries.

For one, the EU would probably be able to put some conditions in place on Switzerland if they so chose.

It's not a foregone conclusion that it'd fuck Tyr up, but it's certainly also not a "clearly there won't be any issues" type situation. Much would depend on how Brexit was handled, but I'm not sure how high on the list of priorities it would be to keep this sort of arrangement going.

EDIT: ... more to your point, the Schengen treaty is one implementation in support of the EU freedom of movement principle, and it has expanded to include other non-EU countries; it is nonetheless an EU constructs.

You are confusing things. The Schengen treaty is an ancillary treaty which essentially just abolishes border control between member states. It is not related directly to the four freedoms of the EU (i.e. free movement of workers, services, capital and establishment). As Sheilbh has pointed out, the UK is not even a part of the Schengen treaty so it has absolutely no relevance for Brexit. The concerns with the Schengen come from the people who are worried about terrorists and extremists hiding among immigrants, because the treaty essentially allows them unrestricted movement throughout the continental EU. But it is not related to free movement of workers per se (the principle of free movement of workers is about being able to take jobs without permits throughout the EU - and it can exist with or without border controls).

There is an organisation called EEA (European Economic Area) which is like a shadow EU, with Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland as the extra members. It basically follows all the EU laws (including the four freedoms) but the non-EU countries mentioned have no vote on the laws - they can only choose to leave the EEA if they don't like it. I understand that the UK has contemplated joining that if they leave the EU.

Then there is an organisation called EFTA (European Free Trade Association) which is the EEA + Switzerland. EFTA does not automatically follow all the EU laws, but Switzerland has entered into bilateral treaties with EEA member states to extend the four freedoms to Switzerland (when the anti-immigration parties in Switzerland recently threatened to renegotiate the treaty on free movement of workers with the EU to limit the principle, they were told off rather strongly by the EU Commission that if they try that, the EU will do the same to the free movement of capital principle - which would hurt Swiss banking badly*).

So in Tyr's colleague's case, the concern is apparently whether a bilateral treaty between Switzerland as a member of the EFTA and the UK as a member of the EU continues to stand when the UK leaves the EU. It probably would (and furthermore the UK would get the 2 year grace period apparently in any case) but it is understandable there is a confusion and people are cautious.

*This is why I think Brits thinking they will get a better deal with the EU if they leave is a pipe dream. I can almost see bankers and stock brokers in Paris and Frankfurt jumping with joy at the thought of blocking the City's access to the single market.

[Josquius]

So in Tyr's colleague's case, the concern is apparently whether a bilateral treaty between Switzerland as a member of the EFTA and the UK as a member of the EU continues to stand when the UK leaves the EU. It probably would (and furthermore the UK would get the 2 year grace period apparently in any case) but it is understandable there is a confusion and people are cautious.

True that it won't happen overnight. There's up to 2 years before everything comes into force (except the economic collapse. That will begin right away).
But would you hire someone knowing they could only stay for 2 years max due to reasons beyond your control?

It would be nice to imagine that if britain leaves the eu we would just get an a agreement like switzerland.... but in wouldn't be so certain.
The main argument the brexiters have is over migration. To leave the eu but for everything to stay as it is....

But Switzerland is in free movement. They had a referendum against it but the EU refuses to open negotiations so the Swiss may have another vote, like the Irish and the Danes, until they choose the correct answer.

I don't think it's quite that.
The Swiss government doesn't want to follow through on the (insane) referendum either.
There's lots of swiss poking at the eu to try and work towards fulfilling the referendum and this has led to some trouble eg switzerland dropping out of erasmus.
The whole situation is a mess.  EU rules are clear that if switzerland cancels freedom of movement it's other treaties would collapse too.

Considering quarter of the Swiss population  and a third of the work force are foreign.... even stopping free movement without the attachments is iffy.

As I've said before its a shame this referendum isn't happening 2 years later.
By then we will see the effects of switzerlands attempts (and the eu will be richer so hopefully idiots thinking it's still 2012 will be fewer)

[Capetan Mihali]

At some level it seems strange for the executive to be in the position of putting forward referenda, almost the opposite of how I envision executive-level governance.  And of course it is the opposite of the American-style referendum/ballot measure, which is ostensibly "ground up" from individual citizens (motivated by different interest groups, naturally).

But I completely missed that this referendum is non-binding.  That kind of lowers the stakes and the breathlessness about it quite a bit, doesn't it?

[The Larch]

Even if it's non binding, it has such a high profile and will have such a high turnout that ignoring the result is political suicide, I guess.

Italy also does plenty of referendums, but they have a relatively high turnout threshold to make them valid, and they fail to reach this threshold more often than not.

[Capetan Mihali]

Even if it's non binding, it has such a high profile that ignoring the result is political suicide, I guess.

I would expect endless discussion, committees, and delays until it stops being so high-profile if they are looking to nullify the referendum, rather than outright ignoring it.

[The Larch]

Even if it's non binding, it has such a high profile that ignoring the result is political suicide, I guess.

I would expect endless discussion, committees, and delays until it stops being so high-profile if they are looking to nullify the referendum, rather than outright ignoring it.

I don't think that you can get an issue like this to linger endlessly in committee until it goes away. I mean, there's even a big political party whose exclusive raison d'etre is this very issue.

[Capetan Mihali]

Very true.