Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

Been a while since I read it, but Japan at least used to combine top of class manufacturing productivity with bottom feeder services productivity.

[Zanza]

If the Eurozone continues on its current path then I think next referendum there'll be a significant left-wing Brexit movement and I wouldn't be surprised if most Another Europe is Possible (roughly where I am) were involved.

With which expectation? That a Brexit because the EU is not social enough would make it more social? Or that your own country would become more social? I guess I am just too conservative to vote for massive change when I can't see how that massive change would do one bit towards what I want to achieve.

The argument of some of my Eurozone friends is that the EU is incapable of reform and it needs a crisis to do anything.

My memory is faint, but I seem to remember something called "Eurozone crisis" in the not too distant past. The idea that Brexit of all things would spur the EU into some kind of vague undefined reform that would make it a better place is silly when something much bigger, namely the Eurozone crisis didn't.

A single customs union with 27 other countries (plus whoever else) versus free trade agreements with emerging economies, with the most rapidly growing and developing centres, which Leave point out is projected to account for around 10% of global demand in a decade's time.

How much of global demand will be the EU in a decade's time? And what does Britain sell that emerging markets want?

As I say I think we have a slightly different attitude to trade than much of Europe, so there is genuine desire for free trade deals with China, Brazil, India etc. The EU is a market with the trade off of a restriction on our ability to negotiate deals with anyone else, I think for a lot of the rest of Europe the EU is valued in trade terms as a protection. So Leave will often point to the fact that the 2011 deal with South Korea was the EU's first ever free trade deal with a major developed economy and has none with any other top 10 non-European global economies (in fairness I think the South Koreans are just pipped by Mexico). But there are deals with the Seychelles and Guatemala.

What they're saying is that as a medium sized country we could, like Australia, Canada or the Swiss I think, negotiate and ratify deals with China, Japan and the US to start with and go from there.

So you say that for the Leave campaign, the EU isn't enough of a neoliberal trade organisation, whereas for you and other lefties it is too much of a neo-liberal trade organisation? If that's the full spectrum of British political thought, you better leave.  By the way, the United States doesn't have FTAs in place with the top 10 non-North American global economies (except South Korea again) in place either.

[Zanza]

Been a while since I read it, but Japan at least used to combine top of class manufacturing productivity with bottom feeder services productivity.

Germany too.

[Sheilbh]

With which expectation? That a Brexit because the EU is not social enough would make it more social? Or that your own country would become more social? I guess I am just too conservative to vote for massive change when I can't see how that massive change would do one bit towards what I want to achieve.

Primarily because the EU is undemocratic. After that that it isn't social enough and we moan about Britain's choice of austerity as mad but are aware that it's the law in Europe. For a lot of the left I think the argument is that the EU is now effectively hostile to their opinions and an obstacle to doing things (eg. state aid rules - in Europe stability and growth) and the democracy issue makes it wrong on principle.

My memory is faint, but I seem to remember something called "Eurozone crisis" in the not too distant past. The idea that Brexit of all things would spur the EU into some kind of vague undefined reform that would make it a better place is silly when something much bigger, namely the Eurozone crisis didn't.

The Eurozone crisis was lots of little mini-crises which did move things along and cause reform at 4 am in the morning in Deauville or wherever. I think the UK leaving is a bit more existential for the EU - there are already leaders in other countries like France, the Netherlands and Sweden calling for a referendum. I'd be amazed if we left if there wasn't a large EU reform project almost immediately.

How much of global demand will be the EU in a decade's time? And what does Britain sell that emerging markets want?

Sorry the EU is projected to account for 10% of global demand in a decade's time. Not a clue on the latter

So you say that for the Leave campaign, the EU isn't enough of a neoliberal trade organisation, whereas for you and other lefties it is too much of a neo-liberal trade organisation? If that's the full spectrum of British political thought, you better leave. 

Again trade is far less of an issue even for the British left, though there's some opposition to TTIP.

The other side of this, of course, is that John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn support Remain and so do George Osborne and Patrick McLoughlin. It's not just a right v left thing, though the right is far more leave and the left more remain.

By the way, the United States doesn't have FTAs in place with the top 10 non-North American global economies (except South Korea again) in place either.

Yeah. But they're notoriously protectionist.

[garbon]

The remain campaign is out in force in London today. I was given an "I'M IN" sticker despite my protestation that I'm an American.

[Sheilbh]

The remain campaign is out in force in London today. I was given an "I'M IN" sticker despite my protestation that I'm an American.

"TAKE A DAMN STICKER!"

I've seen them campaigning round me. Unsurprisingly yet to see a single leave campaigner.

[garbon]

The remain campaign is out in force in London today. I was given an "I'M IN" sticker despite my protestation that I'm an American.

"TAKE A DAMN STICKER!"

I've seen them campaigning round me. Unsurprisingly yet to see a single leave campaigner.

Oh I saw leave campaigners in Cardiff. They were given out stickers and British flags.

[mongers]

I did some inadvertently canvassing today, I printed up some leaflets and headed into the conurbation to encourage people to register to vote if they still hadn't (3 days left to sign up).

So I wasn't asking peoples opinions or trying to persuade them one way or the other, just trying to get as many unregistered to sign up and vote on the 23rd, but I did pick up a few impressions. Which were quite a lot of young people weren't yet registered, quite a few of those who expressed an intention to vote actually still hadn't registered.   
Having spoken with a couple of hundred people, I'd say the Leave campaign has more people energised, I only saw two other canvassers campaigners in a conurbation* of 350,000, both of whom were UKIP inspired Leave.org campaigners, not a sight nor sound of the official Britain stronger in Europe campaign, not one poster/billboard.

I came away with the strong impression the outcome is in the balance and the momentum is with the leave campaign.



* I shall do some of Southampton on Monday, more of a regular city with a strong university contingent.

I could see London, the South-East and Scotland voting Remain, the rest of the UK going Leave. 

[The Brain]

Please edit your post a few more times.

[Sheilbh]

I could see London, the South-East and Scotland voting Remain, the rest of the UK going Leave. 

I agree, basically I think London, Scotland, Northern Ireland and cities will vote remain. Minus Scotland and Northern Ireland that's Jeremy Corbyn's electoral coalition

If I were Leave I'd be very happy at these polls three weeks from a vote:




Still have to trust in the intrinsic conservatism of voters.

Interesting piece on the Guardian on the populist situation in the Netherlands:

In a traumatised Netherlands, faith in the EU is plummeting
Joris Luyendijk
A crisis of confidence in liberalism has left support for immigration and the European project at a very low ebb in this once progressive and optimistic nation

Once a beacon of progressive politics, the Netherlands today is a traumatised, angry and deeply confused nation. Support for immigration and the European project are at all-time lows. Synagogues and Jewish schools need police protection from homegrown jihadists, and freedom of expression is under serious pressure. Leading pundits and comedians incite hatred against Muslims in much the same way that antisemites rage against "the Jews".

It seems a long time since "Dutch" was synonymous with tolerance. A founding member of the European Union, the Netherlands developed from the 1970s onwards into a laboratory for social and cultural change, boldly pioneering the legalisation of prostitution, soft drugs, euthanasia and gay marriage.

Those were the days when Dutch politicians and opinion-makers would refer to the Netherlands, without any apparent irony, as a "gidsland", or "guide country": a small nation leading by example. Its proudest moment probably came in June 1988 when an ethnically mixed team of Dutch footballers won the European Championships, beating the all-white teams of arch-rival Germany and then Russia. It felt like the ultimate vindication of multiculturalism.

Fast-forward 28 years, and heading the polls today is Geert Wilders' PVV or Freedom party. Elected "politician of the year 2015", Wilders is the sole member of the party he founded, ruling over it as undemocratically as the Arab dictators he so despises. He wants the Netherlands to drop the euro and leave the EU. Like Donald Trump he demands an end to all immigration from Islamic countries. A typical Wilders tweet: "As long as we have 'leaders' such as [Dutch prime minister] Rutte, Merkel, Obama and Cameron denying Islam and terror are one and the same, there will be more terrorist attacks."

Of course there was racism and intolerance in the Netherlands during the 70s, 80s and 90s, too, and the country of old has not entirely disappeared. A slim majority continues to vote for pro-EU parties that abhor discrimination against Muslims. The popular mayor of Rotterdam, Ahmed Aboutaleb, is openly and proudly Muslim. The speaker of parliament, Khadija Arib, is of Moroccan descent; and in 2007 Dutch readers voted the book The House of the Mosque by Iranian-born Kader Abdolah to be the second "best Dutch book ever".

Yet the influence of the PVV is widely felt, particularly because the steadily growing far-left Socialist party shares many of its views on the EU. And with every new terrorist attack, wave of refugees or expensive euro bailout, the forces of regression grow stronger, both on the far right and the far left.

Many of the reasons for the "Dutch turn" mirror those elsewhere in Europe. As the EU struggles to get on top of jihadist terrorism and the refugee crisis, some voters look for fresh faces promising simple solutions: torture, deportation, closed borders. And as the eurozone limps from panic to panic, people wonder whether the currency can and should be salvaged in the first place. Is "more Europe" really the answer to every crisis?

These questions, formerly taboo, are now being debated across the continent, reflecting a deep loss of faith in the competence and trustworthiness of traditional elites. Yet no country seems quite as disoriented as the Netherlands. One important reason must be the unprecedented series of catastrophes to have hit the country over the past 15 years. Three high-profile political murders. The country's first mass shooting. An attempt on Queen Beatrix's life in which eight people died. And finally the downing over Ukraine of an airliner, nearly two years ago, killing all 298 on board. Of those, 193 were Dutch, meaning that, relative to population-size, the country suffered a larger loss of life than the US did on 9/11.

These are major traumas that deeply shook the country's complacent consensus that bad things did not happen around here. And when a frightened population looked to its elites for leadership, those elites looked painfully incompetent – a second reason for the Dutch turn. There were the lost wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – which the Netherlands was almost alone from mainland Europe in joining, where 25 died. There was the disaster of the financial crash that took the entire policymaking elite by surprise. And then there is the Greek euro-crisis.

Each of these debacles made the traditional elites look helpless and inept – in Wilders' favourite slur, "naive". When those same elites then implore their voters to trust them on the EU, the euro and immigration, many voters now think twice.

There are still those in the Netherlands who believe that the country needs to "sit out" the PVV. They point out that there have not been even low-level defections from the elites to the PVV and that, unlike Marine Le Pen in France, Wilders is not building a political machine. Quite the contrary. As soon as anybody in his party assumes any kind of profile they are quickly sidelined. In this respect Wilders resembles Nigel Farage – though with none of the latter's cheerfulness.

Yet it would be a grave mistake to think that once Wilders leaves the scene, so will the questions that, beneath all the offensive and incendiary rhetoric, he has put centre stage. What if the European project is an edifice with fatally flawed foundations? How does an open society based on equality survive, when every year it takes in tens if not hundreds of thousands of immigrants from countries with no tradition of openness, equality or democratic debate? Especially when those immigrants consistently have more children than the native Dutch?

There was a time when mainstream Dutch politicians and opinion-makers would answer breezily that the EU was a work in progress and that successful integration would simply take a generation: why would the children of immigrants remain socially and culturally conservative if they could also be Dutch?

That self-confidence is gone and what will take its place is anyone's guess. What seems certain is that the heady days of progressive optimism are not coming back.

As for the football, the Netherlands did not even qualify for this year's European Championship.

Although I believe the Netherlands has always had lower support for the EU than most of the core countries. I read a Dutch writer on Social Europe who basically said the Dutch have very similar attitudes to Europe as the UK but because of geography they've always had to remain in the core and keep pace with France and Germany.

[PJL]

I expect Remain to win the vote in the end, something like 52-48. Although it's looking good for Leave right now, voters tend to go for the status quo in the last week or so.

I think Cameron is in serious trouble though either way. I wouldn't be surprised if he is forced out by the end of the year. Or at the very least announce a definite timetable of when he's leaving.

[Admiral Yi]

Did Shelf always post these gigantic dissertation posts?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah 

That's mainly big because of the polls which I saw today and were annoyingly big though, sorry.

[alfred russel]

So if the results are 50.3% Leave and 49.7% Remain, will the UK really leave?

Both major parties and the current prime minister are on the Remain side, and it seems like a rather momentous decision for such a tiny majority in a referendum.

[Monoriu]