Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Larch]

I'm still silently rooting for Penny Mordaunt if only because she has a surname that seems out of a villain in an Arthurian legend, coupled with "Penny".

Would it help if she went by Penelope instead?

[Sheilbh]

I'm still silently rooting for Penny Mordaunt if only because she has a surname that seems out of a villain in an Arthurian legend, coupled with "Penny".

Would it help if she went by Penelope instead?

I always think she has the look of a villainous PM in an episode of Dr Who. Which makes me like her more than I would otherwise

[Sheilbh]

God willing:



It's not going to happen, but I love that GB News' pollster consistently gives the worst results for the Tories

[OttoVonBismarck]

I was no BoJo fan but I frankly found his downfall to be one of those weird things that highlights how despite similar language and a lot of cultural exchange, Britain and America are fundamentally very different. Someone elected with such a massive electoral mandate being hounded out of office over what would not even be a scandal in the United States ( a gathering in the White House of friends and colleagues.)

[alfred russel]

It is way too early to say that the tories really collapse, but if they do, it would be another breakdown of the old center right and center left parties in europe.

[Tamas]

I was no BoJo fan but I frankly found his downfall to be one of those weird things that highlights how despite similar language and a lot of cultural exchange, Britain and America are fundamentally very different. Someone elected with such a massive electoral mandate being hounded out of office over what would not even be a scandal in the United States ( a gathering in the White House of friends and colleagues.)

You truly did not pay attention then if you think that's what happened.

[Tamas]

It is way too early to say that the tories really collapse, but if they do, it would be another breakdown of the old center right and center left parties in europe.

Labour at least leadership-wise is pretty centrist at the moment. They are post-collapse in that regard.

[Sheilbh]

Labour at least leadership-wise is pretty centrist at the moment. They are post-collapse in that regard.

But it gets to the other stage of the cycle - 2010-2020 was all about PASOKification and the decline of the traditional centre-left. They generally seem to have stabilised across Europe and are winning back power in some places, with a couple of big exceptions (Italy and France especially).

In recent elections we've seen a similar decline/crisis on the traditional parties of the centre-right. I think there's an argument that this is the latest version of that and the UK is on the same trend as the rest of Europe - but, as you say, largely because of our voting system, despite the worst fears, Labour weren't PASOKified (and chances are the Tories won't be either).

[The Larch]

I'm still silently rooting for Penny Mordaunt if only because she has a surname that seems out of a villain in an Arthurian legend, coupled with "Penny".

Would it help if she went by Penelope instead?

I always think she has the look of a villainous PM in an episode of Dr Who. Which makes me like her more than I would otherwise

I don't expect you to talk, Mr. Bond...

 

[The Minsky Moment]

I agree with sheilbh that Americans are not well placed in their glass house to throw stones.  Yes the Truss situation is comic and we can all have our laughs but their system worked.  It's working in a slapdash way with the Yakety Sax theme playing in the background but it's still working. Whereas our system is faltering as one of the two main parties increasingly opts out of democracy.

[The Minsky Moment]

I was no BoJo fan but I frankly found his downfall to be one of those weird things that highlights how despite similar language and a lot of cultural exchange, Britain and America are fundamentally very different. Someone elected with such a massive electoral mandate being hounded out of office over what would not even be a scandal in the United States ( a gathering in the White House of friends and colleagues.)

You truly did not pay attention then if you think that's what happened.

It's not that we didn't pay attention.  It's that it literally would not crack the top 25 Trump scandals.

[Sheilbh]

I agree with sheilbh that Americans are not well placed in their glass house to throw stones.  Yes the Truss situation is comic and we can all have our laughs but their system worked.  It's working in a slapdash way with the Yakety Sax theme playing in the background but it's still working. Whereas our system is faltering as one of the two main parties increasingly opts out of democracy.

I think public opinion is really key here - it moves in the UK. Tory and Labour voters' opinion moves in the same direction in response to news stories even if they start at different levels and move at different paces.

The contrast of Trump's approval rating v Johnson's (Truss' premiership was too short to get a chart ) is really striking (via Brian Klaas):



The sharp drop after July 2020 is the story about Dominic Cummings breaking covid rules. The one in November 2021 is Owen Paterson plus partygate. Both of those permanently shift the range of Johnson's approval rating - but then you can still see slight recoveries in early 2021 (vaccines) and 2022 (Ukraine). It's linked to events. Often farcical but I think, fundamentally, quite healthy moves in people's opinions.

Looking at the Trump chart despite the literally thousands of news stories and events, I couldn't place any of them and none of them seem to have mattered a great deal.

[crazy canuck]

I was no BoJo fan but I frankly found his downfall to be one of those weird things that highlights how despite similar language and a lot of cultural exchange, Britain and America are fundamentally very different. Someone elected with such a massive electoral mandate being hounded out of office over what would not even be a scandal in the United States ( a gathering in the White House of friends and colleagues.)

You truly did not pay attention then if you think that's what happened.

It's not that we didn't pay attention.  It's that it literally would not crack the top 25 Trump scandals.

But again, that is the strength of the parliamentary system. Trump levels of depravity are not required for removal.

[celedhring]

I was no BoJo fan but I frankly found his downfall to be one of those weird things that highlights how despite similar language and a lot of cultural exchange, Britain and America are fundamentally very different. Someone elected with such a massive electoral mandate being hounded out of office over what would not even be a scandal in the United States ( a gathering in the White House of friends and colleagues.)

You truly did not pay attention then if you think that's what happened.

I'm still amazed that 2 months after being ousted he may just waltz back like nothing happened 

[Josquius]

Yeah I agree especially from a left-wing perspective I'm delighted and a little bit concerned.

There was a novel written by a Bennite MP and then made into a BBC drama called A Very British Coup. It was basically about a left-wing, Bennite politicians being elected and then removed very quickly by British business making market turmoil and the CIA pitching to the moderate wing. It wasn't quite that but having a leader defenestrated by bond markets is not great - I think it is, as Minsky, said a Suez moment.

The whole thing reminded me a bit of the Eurozone crisis actually. The cycle of announcing something, markets panicking, at great political cost making some concessions to reality but that not being enough for the markets - rinse and repeat etc. But for very good reasons in the current context the central bank can't commit to "whatever it takes" because their mandate is to get inflation down.

I actually see this as quite encouraging.
If a far left leader came to power that the markets would destroy them is something I've always just accepted as a fact. The game is rigged and all that.
But here we have the markets ousting somebody for being too eager to lube up the country for them. My expectation before hand would have been that the markets would love this kind of disaster politics trash, as much as it ruins the country.