Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Although in incredibly transparent political moves - Sunak couldn't attend PMQs today because his diary means he's in Devon:

Rishi Sunak
@RishiSunak
Excited to be in Ilfracombe this morning with @SelaineSaxby.

Im visiting @PallCorporation who protect & purify pharmaceutical drugs including a majority of UK Covid vaccines.

They're announcing £60 million of investment at this site creating 200 new local jobs #PlanForJobs

And he's apparently too busy to do any media interviews right now

[The Larch]

What about David Davis? Or is he out of the picture?

I always found his full name quite funny.

[Sheilbh]

What about David Davis? Or is he out of the picture?

I always found his full name quite funny.

I very much doubt it. He was a leadership contender (and the favourite) in 2005 when he lost to Cameron.

I don't think anyone would think about him now, though he might give it a go but I think that's pretty unlikely given that he didn't try in 2016 or 2019.

There's also another backbench Tory MP called David Davies who is not the brightest backbencher around

Edit: Also I just checked and Davis is 73 which is too old. I think he'd be the oldest PM since Gladstone or Churchill which is just unlikely - it's more likely someone in their 40s. But also the job of the next leader is to fight and win the next election. Only circumstance where I can see someone that old becoming leader is if they are an agreed, neutral-ish, transitional figure who is basically a caretaker leader.

[Sheilbh]

Leader of the Scottish Tories now calling for Johnson to resign (previously he'd said he should resign if he misled the Commons).

[Tamas]

In other news, Prince Andrew intended to defend himself against the Epstein-related sexual abuse charges by arguing that the accuser signed a contract with Epstein that she would refrain from accusing any participants of the underage sex parties, so she should definitely leave him alone as per that paperwork.

Seems like this didn't work: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/12/prince-andrew-case-proceed-latest-ruling-virginia-giuffre

[Josquius]

So the news is in and Johnsons excuse is...I was only there 25 minutes

[Tamas]

So the news is in and Johnsons excuse is...I was only there 25 minutes

And he didn't realise it was a party. I realise when you are a privileged git you can get away with such pathetic excuses but surely this must be too embarrassing now even for the Tories.

[Sheilbh]

Tory MPs leaking the message from Priti Patel to their WhatsApp which Patel clearly wrote to be leaked:

"Comrade Andropov continues to work with the highest dedication to the People!"

Separately Johnson, Gove, Zahawi, Dorries and Javid all apparently doing the rounds in the Commons tea rooms button-holing MPs trying to rally support. I look forward to Zahawi, Javid and Patel launching their leadership campaigns next week on the basis that they were loyalists and tried to do their best for the party even in very difficult times, while Sunak shirked responsibility

This seems to be the line - from Dorries:

Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
PM was right to personally apologise earlier. People are hurt and angry at what happened and he has taken full responsibility for that. The inquiry should now be allowed to its work and establish the full facts of what happened.

Not sure that it quite works. And as far as I can see there's only then a few outcomes - the inquiry's a whitewash which just fuels more anger, it's a partial whitewash ("deputy heads must roll") which I'm not sure will be credible at this stage or it's pretty damning in which case he'll have to go. At best it feels like this is all playing for time but, as Daniel Finkelstein, absent a time machine I can't see a way out.

[Richard Hakluyt]

In other news, Prince Andrew intended to defend himself against the Epstein-related sexual abuse charges by arguing that the accuser signed a contract with Epstein that she would refrain from accusing any participants of the underage sex parties, so she should definitely leave him alone as per that paperwork.

Seems like this didn't work: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/12/prince-andrew-case-proceed-latest-ruling-virginia-giuffre

He probably thought they were work meetings.

[Maladict]

So the news is in and Johnsons excuse is...I was only there 25 minutes

And he didn't realise it was a party. I realise when you are a privileged git you can get away with such pathetic excuses but surely this must be too embarrassing now even for the Tories.

He could claim he doesn't really know where he is most of the time, and it would at least be a plausible excuse.

[The Larch]

What about David Davis? Or is he out of the picture?

I always found his full name quite funny.

I very much doubt it. He was a leadership contender (and the favourite) in 2005 when he lost to Cameron.

I don't think anyone would think about him now, though he might give it a go but I think that's pretty unlikely given that he didn't try in 2016 or 2019.

There's also another backbench Tory MP called David Davies who is not the brightest backbencher around

Edit: Also I just checked and Davis is 73 which is too old. I think he'd be the oldest PM since Gladstone or Churchill which is just unlikely - it's more likely someone in their 40s. But also the job of the next leader is to fight and win the next election. Only circumstance where I can see someone that old becoming leader is if they are an agreed, neutral-ish, transitional figure who is basically a caretaker leader.

At 73 in American politics he'd be a young talent on the rise. 

I also asked in part because he used to be one of the big names in the mix since the Cameron era and afterwards with Brexit. It's quite stunning the turnover that this latest era has produced in the Tory party. Most of the names being considered at the moment were complete unknowns back during the May era, let alone the Cameron era.

[Tamas]

What about David Davis? Or is he out of the picture?

I always found his full name quite funny.

I very much doubt it. He was a leadership contender (and the favourite) in 2005 when he lost to Cameron.

I don't think anyone would think about him now, though he might give it a go but I think that's pretty unlikely given that he didn't try in 2016 or 2019.

There's also another backbench Tory MP called David Davies who is not the brightest backbencher around

Edit: Also I just checked and Davis is 73 which is too old. I think he'd be the oldest PM since Gladstone or Churchill which is just unlikely - it's more likely someone in their 40s. But also the job of the next leader is to fight and win the next election. Only circumstance where I can see someone that old becoming leader is if they are an agreed, neutral-ish, transitional figure who is basically a caretaker leader.

At 73 in American politics he'd be a young talent on the rise. 

I also asked in part because he used to be one of the big names in the mix since the Cameron era and afterwards with Brexit. It's quite stunning the turnover that this latest era has produced in the Tory party. Most of the names being considered at the moment were complete unknowns back during the May era, let alone the Cameron era.

I am holding out a faint hope that this is because people with actual talent have stepped back into the background, not wanting to waste their careers on shepherding the country down the inevitable Brexit hole, and they'll re-emerge once the crash is over and the dust settles.

[Sheilbh]

At 73 in American politics he'd be a young talent on the rise. 

"Up-and-comer David Davis launches Presidential campaign"

I also asked in part because he used to be one of the big names in the mix since the Cameron era and afterwards with Brexit. It's quite stunning the turnover that this latest era has produced in the Tory party. Most of the names being considered at the moment were complete unknowns back during the May era, let alone the Cameron era.

He's still a backbencher - but an eccentric one he causes a bit of trouble for the government on anything touching civil liberties (ID cards for elections, the policing bill etc).

But it's not just the Tory Party. Off the top of my head there's maybe two people on the Labour frontbench who were at cabinet level in Gordon Brown's government, which was only 11 years ago. Many of them (including Starmer) have only been MPs since 2015. In the 2020 Labour leadership and deputy leadership elections five of the eight candidates had only been elected in 2015 or sooner (two were in 2010 and Dawn Butler was in 2005).

It is really striking the amount of churn there's been. I think part of it is obviously just the twin experiences of Brexit and Corbyn meaning there's a lot of churn because it's uncomfortable to be on the wrong side of a revolution (and the counter-revolution in Labour's case).  And there have just been a lot of elections, we've had four in the last 11 years (including 2010). I also think on the Labour side some like Andy Burnham or Sadiq Khan would rather be in power in local government with their own mandate than a backbench MP in the Labour party for the last 6 years which is understandable.

But I also think there is just a slightly wider problem of lots of once senior politicians preferring to leave politics and earn money as consultants without having to report their income - Cameron, Clegg and Brown and, I'd guess, most of their cabinets seem to have taken that route. It's why, though I don't particularly like either of them, I rate that Ed Miliband and Theresa May have both lost but decided to hang around.

[crazy canuck]

Honestly the more worrying thing is the number of MPs and others - on both sides of the debate - who are saying this sets a precedent. Which suggests a slightly worrying level of ignorance (or bad reporting) on our legal system

There is a concerning amount of ignorance about the building blocks of our democracies - in all places I have taught. My vague sense of it is that lower level civics classes were all displaced in favor of "real" subjects in high school; and that college courses are concerned with teaching a critical approach, that can no longer assume a stable narrative there to be criticized... And everyone now thinks it is someone else's role to teach it.

But the people from which we are seeing the most ignorance are the older people who were educated during the hay day of civics education.  In my own line of work I run into this more and more when explaining procedural fairness, Charter protections to freedom of expression etc. to decision makers who are my age or older. 

In contrast the demographic to which my sons belong seem to have a much stronger grasp on these principles.

[crazy canuck]

Are we entering the stage where the cover up may end up being more serious than the crime?

The most entertaining bit was when people were asked if they were present, their scripted answer was that was a fact that the investigation would determine.  They seem to have lost their memories...