Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Gina Miller (the woman who did all the Brexit litigation) has launched her new "True and Fair Party" I think it's the standard centrist party we've seen a million times before - with the slight twist that based on their fundraising page, they aspire to re-conquering the Republic of Ireland which was unexpected

WTF 

Not a very nice image; it looks like something in a dirty kitchen that badly needs the application of domestos.

[Josquius]

It looks like something a far right party would come up with. "Englund is full!"

[Sheilbh]

In a shocking turn which will surprise nobody, the police will not investigate the May 2020 booze party despite the PM's admission it happened:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/downing-street-party-police-boris-johnson-b1992619.html

Of course - police happy to let HR finish their internal investigation first

The reporters on this need to get a bit of a grip because they're all letting a lot of pressure be put on Sue Gray. She'll probably be able to establish facts, but not say if the law was broken (the job of the police and courts).

Also as a civil servant (independent, unelected, cautious) I think she'll be incredibly reluctant to be perceived as causing the Prime Minister (democratically elected) to step down/be removed. I think that would cause most civil servants a bit of a concern from a constitutional perspective.

And I think that needsd to get into the reporting about this. The people who can tell us if the law was broken are the police and the courts. The people who can decide if he should resign or vote him out are the MPs in his party. So there needs to be a bit of pushback about putting all that on Sue Gray and there's a risk it lets her become a human shield because they'll allow expectations to build that she'll do something that no civil servant could or should.

[Syt]

https://www.royal.uk/statement-buckingham-palace-regarding-duke-york

A statement from Buckingham Palace regarding The Duke of York

Published 13 January 2022

With The Queen's approval and agreement, The Duke of York's military affiliations and Royal patronages have been returned to The Queen.

The Duke of York will continue not to undertake any public duties and is defending this case as a private citizen.

[Tamas]

Ok, but rushing through the spending of taxpayers' money on the personal initiative of a minister, skipping oversight and standard process, is the most classical scenario of corruption and embezzlement there is. It is destructively naive to pretend these things happen because honest mistakes are made.

If what he did was a classic case of embezzlement that would actually be a criminal offence resulting in a criminal conviction and jail time rather than an administrative decision being quashed.

Exactly. There should have been a criminal investigation. But seemingly if it comes to politicians the police is waiting for them to submit all evidence that they committed a crime, put the handcuffs on themselves and organise the trial. Otherwise they can't do a thing.

[Sheilbh]

Exactly. There should have been a criminal investigation. But seemingly if it comes to politicians the police is waiting for them to submit all evidence that they committed a crime, put the handcuffs on themselves and organise the trial. Otherwise they can't do a thing.

This is one area where there really isn't one rule for them - I posted it earlier but according to the Met's internal guidance they basically barely investigate crimes anymore.

It's why I think Labour should run really hard on being tough on crime, because due to spending cuts the Tories have basically decriminalised most crime. I think from my memory of that chart basically unless it's a very specific type of violent crime, they don't investigate anything in London unless there is CCTV recording of the incident. You just get a crime number so you can make a claim on your insurance. I think it's a huge sleeper issue if Labour campaign on it. I know a few people who have been victims of low level crime and the police don't even see them in person.

Most extreme example I've seen recently is Daniel Knowles from the Economist whose mum disturbed intruders in her garage two nights on the run. The police apparently just dealt with it over the phone rather than, say, sending someone round. Even if they're not investigating you feel like it would be good to send someone round for reassurance.

We have a "decorative" police force at best. They don't investigate crimes - they mainly focus on visible things like swabbing people on a night out for drugs (then posting it on social media) or cracking down on a vigil for a murdered woman.

Edit: Police and the criminal courts are probably the thing I'd guess it's most obvious to middle class people of basic state functions not being done anymore.

[Tamas]

Exactly. There should have been a criminal investigation. But seemingly if it comes to politicians the police is waiting for them to submit all evidence that they committed a crime, put the handcuffs on themselves and organise the trial. Otherwise they can't do a thing.

This is one area where there really isn't one rule for them - I posted it earlier but according to the Met's internal guidance they basically barely investigate crimes anymore.

It's why I think Labour should run really hard on being tough on crime, because due to spending cuts the Tories have basically decriminalised most crime. I think from my memory of that chart basically unless it's a very specific type of violent crime, they don't investigate anything in London unless there is CCTV recording of the incident. You just get a crime number so you can make a claim on your insurance. I think it's a huge sleeper issue if Labour campaign on it. I know a few people who have been victims of low level crime and the police don't even see them in person.

Most extreme example I've seen recently is Daniel Knowles from the Economist whose mum disturbed intruders in her garage two nights on the run. The police apparently just dealt with it over the phone rather than, say, sending someone round. Even if they're not investigating you feel like it would be good to send someone round for reassurance.

We have a "decorative" police force at best. They don't investigate crimes - they mainly focus on visible things like swabbing people on a night out for drugs (then posting it on social media) or cracking down on a vigil for a murdered woman.

Edit: Police and the criminal courts are probably the thing I'd guess it's most obvious to middle class people of basic state functions not being done anymore.

I didn't realise it was this bad.

[Valmy]

https://www.royal.uk/statement-buckingham-palace-regarding-duke-york

A statement from Buckingham Palace regarding The Duke of York

Published 13 January 2022

With The Queen's approval and agreement, The Duke of York's military affiliations and Royal patronages have been returned to The Queen.

The Duke of York will continue not to undertake any public duties and is defending this case as a private citizen.

Richard III is horrified by this blight on the good name of York.

[Sheilbh]

This is pretty astonishing.

What's particularly interesting is what this is like within the context of Scottish politics. In 2011 the Scottish Tories had their worst election ever. They were down to about 14% of the vote, very much locked in third place and with only 15 seats in the Scottish Parliament.

The 2011 leadership election was really striking because the two candidates had utterly different strategies. Murdo Fraser proposed disassociating the party with the Conservatives and refounding it basically on the CDU-CSU model; Ruth Davidson for doubling down on being part of the Conservative Party with her as a one nation Tory fitting quite well within Cameron's Tory party. In 2016 she increases their share of the vote to 22%, doubles their number of seats and moves to second place becoming the leader of the opposition in the Scottish Parliament - she also basically saves Theresa May because without the Tory performance in Scotland in 2017 (they go from 1 seat to 13), May wouldn't have a majority with the DUP.

She steps down and is replaced by Douglas Ross who is very much her successor. And now Johnson will have no part to play in the next Scottish Tory conference:

Boris Johnson will not be involved in Scottish Tory conference, sources say
Unprecedented absence comes as rebellion by Scottish Tories over PM's leadership erupts into open warfare
Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks
Thu 13 Jan 2022 19.10 GMT

The rebellion by Scottish Tories over Boris Johnson's leadership erupted into open warfare on Thursday after it emerged the prime minister was not expected to speak at the party's spring conference.

The unprecedented absence, confirmed by several sources, came after Jacob Rees-Mogg was bitterly criticised for attacking the character of the Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross, on Wednesday night.

Senior Conservatives in Scotland said the leader of the House of Commons had boosted the Scottish National party and undermined the union after he dismissed Ross as a "lightweight" and serial rebel following his call for the prime minister to quit.

Scottish Tories were furious, accusing Rees-Mogg of being "pathetic" and urged him to "have a long lie down". Rees-Mogg refused to back down on Thursday, stating: "If you take the king's shilling you are beholden to the crown."

With nearly all 31 Scottish Tory MSPs publicly supporting Ross's call for Johnson to quit, sources said it was "inconceivable" the prime minister would now appear at the Scottish party conference in March – the first time a UK leader would have been barred from doing so.

The event was still being planned but one source said: "I don't see a way he could be involved really." A spokesperson for the Scottish Tories later downplayed the issue, saying: "No discussions have been had about this."

The Tories' discomfort over Rees-Mogg's attacks was exposed when Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National party leader and first minister, said his remarks illustrated the Conservatives' "utter contempt" for Scotland. "If they can't even show basic respect for their own colleagues, what chance do the rest of us have?"

Sturgeon concluded that independence would have the "added benefit no longer [having] to put up with being treated like something on the sole of Westminster's shoe and I suspect even Douglas Ross finds that a really attractive proposition".

Speaking in the House of Commons, Pete Wishart, the SNP's shadow leader of the house, goaded Rees-Mogg. "The Scottish Tories are supposed to be the Praetorian guard of the precious union, and the leader of the house has just undermined them, thrown them under the proverbial bus," Wishart said.

"If this is how the government even treats the Scottish Tories, why should the Scottish people entertain being a part of their useless union?"

Ross told reporters Rees-Mogg was entitled to his opinions. "I don't have to agree with them," he said. "My message [to him] is I'm going to hold the first minister to account, and ensure the Scottish Conservatives continue to provide that real alternative here in Scotland."

Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, distanced himself from Rees-Mogg's attacks by telling the BBC that all his Scottish Tory colleagues, including Ross, were "held in high regard" at Westminster. But Jack said Ross and his colleagues had "jumped the gun" by calling for Johnson to resign after the prime minister acknowledged attending the No 10 garden party on 20 May 2020, in defiance of a UK-wide ban on gatherings.

Jack implied that an internal inquiry led by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant, which many Tory MPs are waiting for before deciding whether Johnson should stay, would clear the prime minister of breaching the rules. "Then they may reconsider their position," Jack said. "But let's wait. They need to see the full facts."

Scottish Tory leaders often reject UK government policy, pursuing distinctive devolved policies for Holyrood, and there was open disagreement about Brexit strategy after the 2016 EU referendum.

However, despite Rees-Mogg's attempt to single out Ross, the scale of the Scottish Tory rebellion against Johnson is unprecedented. Jack is the only one of six Scottish Tory MPs and 31 MSPs to openly back the prime minister; three successive Scottish Tory leaders – Ruth Davidson, Jackson Carlaw and Ross – have now called on him to quit.

Jack's four other Westminster colleagues are thought to share Ross's anxieties, and some, furious with his leadership and conduct, believe the prime minister is unlikely to survive.

They are waiting to see whether any other scandals about Johnson's conduct come to light and for Gray to complete her investigation before deciding whether to back calls for him to resign, to avoid fuelling a failed rebellion. Andrew Bowie, the MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, said: "I do not believe the [prime minister's] apology was enough. However, I think it's important to wait and see what the report says."

An hour before Sturgeon's attack on Rees-Mogg at Holyrood, the UK government announced a "landmark agreement" setting out how the UK and devolved governments will work together "based upon on the existing values of mutual respect, maintaining trust and positive working".

This post-Brexit upgrade of the joint ministerial committee set up by the Labour government in 1999 has been spearheaded by Michael Gove. He said it would build on "the incredible amount of collaboration already taking place between the UK government and the devolved administrations".

[Sheilbh]

The Telegraph (Johnson's former employer) has found the most Telegraph angle possible - with new parties being uncovered:

Tony Diver
@Tony_Diver
EXCLUSIVE

Number 10 held two boozy parties the night before the Queen mourned Prince Philip alone.

Staff drank and at points danced until the early hours of the night of April 16.

Hours later, the Queen went to a socially-distanced funeral for Philip.

We have spoken to eyewitnesses. At a leaving do for a No10 photographer it's alleged:
Staff partied in the basement of No10, to music DJd by a special adviser.
One broke Wilf Johnson's swing in the No10 garden.
Another was sent to the Co-op with a suitcase to buy booze.

Another event held to mark the departure of James Slack, Mr Johnson's chief spinner, saw:
Staff gathered for a speech from Slack, with others dialling in via Zoom.
Booze drunk and attendees spilling into the garden.
Chatting and drinking into the early hours.

At the time Britain was in Step 2 of lockdown easing - which banned indoor gatherings and imposed the rule of six outside.

But the celebrations in No10 meant around 30 people were gathered for what a source declares were definitely parties.

Can No10 claim they were work events?

This was the scene in St George's Chapel at Windsor Castle the next day.

Prince Philip's funeral was restricted to 30 people, and the PM declined to attend, to make more space for family.

The Queen did not participate in the service.

I think it's inevitable Johnson goes - my theory was the Tories would wait until after local elections in May so he can be blamed for the results rather than any new leader starting on a dud. But I'm starting to wonder if that's worth it or if the damage from all this is just too much and going to keep increasing.

[Syt]

The Telegraph (Johnson's former employer) has found the most Telegraph angle possible - with new parties being uncovered:

As Twitter put it:

[Syt]

Alternatively:

[Sheilbh]

It's why - with the Prince Andrew statement - the Queen is still so popular. She is able to read the room in a way that, say, Johnson absolutely can't.

Also I cannot think of an angle on the parties that would generate more anger than this - especially in Tory England.

Edit: What I hadn't fully realised is those two parties - basement with a SpAd DJ set () and the leaving drinks - were on the same night?

Johnson was away that weekend so he has an alibi. But it's pretty impossible to suggest he didn't know about it.

[Tamas]

Alternatively:

Awesome 

[Syt]

Awesome 

Credit: https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve