Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

The big painful irony over brexit is that so many of those who voted leave are those who stand to be really hurt by brexit whilst many remain supporting groups should be OK, if not thrive - a lack of competition for work won't do much for most wages but in very niche specialist skills it should provide a boost.

NHS privatisation is an ever present threat. Especially now with the lunatic wing of the tories going about their business. The thing is though they're in the process of doing this like Russia with Ukraine. Steadily chipping away bit by bit to make it non viable as a sole health provider in the UK.
Covid has really highlighted how the nhs is creaking at the seams and brexit will have done absolutely no favours here.

Myself for what's to come in politics.... I wouldn't underestimate the big realignment covid is bringing. It should help ensure leftish voters are no longer quite so heavily clustered in London et al and their numbers are boosted elsewhere in the country too. I would see in the years to come bits of London going blue again and forgotten lumpen towns being reclaimed by the working class-via those who got out coming home.

[Tamas]

There's no need to privatise the NHS even if you are a right wing nut with your sponsors in private healthcare. It seems to me like the pandemic queue at least is pushing things toward a two-tier healthcare like in many countries, with those of private insurance going there, and those who cannot afford stuck waiting in the NHS queue. I mean, our GP told us a few months ago when she was sending us to a specialist that we should go private because there's way too big a queue in the NHS.

[Sheilbh]

The big painful irony over brexit is that so many of those who voted leave are those who stand to be really hurt by brexit whilst many remain supporting groups should be OK, if not thrive - a lack of competition for work won't do much for most wages but in very niche specialist skills it should provide a boost.

Yep - absolutely.

NHS privatisation is an ever present threat. Especially now with the lunatic wing of the tories going about their business. The thing is though they're in the process of doing this like Russia with Ukraine. Steadily chipping away bit by bit to make it non viable as a sole health provider in the UK.

It's not and it's never been the sole health provider in the UK. That's what Nye Bevan meant by getting doctors to work for the NHS by "stuffing their mouths with gold" - consultants especially kept their private practices. There's always been a question of how that sector interacts with the NHS and how the entirely private GP network interacts with the NHS (I actually think there's a strong argument to nationalise GPs now). There's always been tensions between top-down v internal market etc. And the NHS goes back and forth - the latest proposed reforms I heard of were actually moving it back from an internal market to more centralised control because Whitehall felt that during covid they didn't have the levers to do things in response to a crisis, power was too diffuse and spread across multiple levels (NHS England, NHS Trusts, Commissioning Groups, Primary Care Trusts etc). I think there's a tension around marketisation within the NHS - but that is different than privatisation and the principle of universal healthcare that's free at the point of need.

Covid has really highlighted how the nhs is creaking at the seams and brexit will have done absolutely no favours here.

Yeah I think a lot of that is that we've had a long period of politics that is merciless towards inefficiency or waste. There's been so many studies by consultants on how to maximise output and cut inefficiencies - but that means there's no flex which is why a bad flu season can be a disaster and a pandemic definitely is. Because waste and inefficiency are also just spare capacity and I think we need to re-orient on that.

I always think now of the swine flu in 2009 when Brown's government spent - I want to say something like £30 million on extra flu vaccines that should work v swine flu. And then swine flu didn't happen. It became a huge attack line in the right-wing press and by Cameron of Labour waste/inability to control public spending. While I hope now, it'd be seen as a sensible precautionary measure and, frankly, £30 million is a rounding error in the scheme of things. I think there was a similar scandal but on opposite sides in France with the PS attacking Sarko for wasting money on flu vaccine.

Myself for what's to come in politics.... I wouldn't underestimate the big realignment covid is bringing. It should help ensure leftish voters are no longer quite so heavily clustered in London et al and their numbers are boosted elsewhere in the country too. I would see in the years to come bits of London going blue again and forgotten lumpen towns being reclaimed by the working class-via those who got out coming home.

There's already an angle which is been happening for a while - it's why Canterbury has a Labour MP. I'm not so sure because I think London (and New York and San Francisco and many other US cities - not sure about the UK) after a dip at the start of covid are growing again. I am less certain there's going to be a great emigration out of the cities. I think the people who always hated the city have left. And they assumed everyone else living there also secretly hated it and wanted to leave, but actually most people who live in cities are there because they want to be and it's not all false consciousness.

[Sheilbh]

There's no need to privatise the NHS even if you are a right wing nut with your sponsors in private healthcare. It seems to me like the pandemic queue at least is pushing things toward a two-tier healthcare like in many countries, with those of private insurance going there, and those who cannot afford stuck waiting in the NHS queue. I mean, our GP told us a few months ago when she was sending us to a specialist that we should go private because there's way too big a queue in the NHS.

From my understanding with workplace private insurance which covers about 10% of the population - it is best for things that are not "essential" so not a priority in the NHS budget and there's likely to be a big queue. So things like physio and mental health services are what it's useful for. It's also apparently very good for cancer because basically all the consultant oncologists in the NHS also work private and there's lots of experience. Apparently it's not great for things like pregnancy or surgery (except for cancer) compared to the NHS.

I heard from someone in that industry that actually premiums are way down this year (and expecting to be way up next year) because they're basically not getting many insurance claims for cancer, because there are few referrals/diagnoses in the NHS because so much resource is needed by covid. So they're expecting, once things are back to something like normal, a huge backlog of big claims.

[crazy canuck]

There's no need to privatise the NHS even if you are a right wing nut with your sponsors in private healthcare. It seems to me like the pandemic queue at least is pushing things toward a two-tier healthcare like in many countries, with those of private insurance going there, and those who cannot afford stuck waiting in the NHS queue. I mean, our GP told us a few months ago when she was sending us to a specialist that we should go private because there's way too big a queue in the NHS.

That is WAD for the Conservatives - underfund enough and force people into private options.

[Sheilbh]

There's been real term increases in spending on the NHS for the last 11 years of austerity - spending hasn't kept pace with GDP growth and maybe it should, but that doesn't strike me as an obvious sign of underfunding:

(DEFRA goes up because all the EU competencies and subsidies came into the UK, the Home Office and DCMS peaks and then collapses because Olympics).

As I say of the about 75 years the NHS has existed the Tories have been in charge of it for about 50. That includes Maggie Thatcher's eleven years in office. During a decade of the deepest austerity in post-war history, Tories increased spending in real terms on the NHS by 25%. In the middle of that period under a Tory government with a Tory mayor there was a massive tribute to the NHS in the middle of the opening ceremony to the Olympics. It's possible that this all a very long game to eventually privatising an institution that 90% of Brits are proud of - but I think it's probably not.

There is less factual substance to this than the "Tukey is joining the EU" line.

Of course the reason Brits are particularly proud of the NHS is because we're insular and seem to think we're the only country in the world with universal healthcare free at the point of need and the rest of you all suffer under some form of insurers' yoke. The only two models most Brits really are aware of is the NHS or the US so....

[Sheilbh]

After the Leeds fans chanting "Boris Johnson is a cunt" we now have the Darts World Championship chant: "stand up if you hate Boris"
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1473067440623996932?s=20

I think it's fair to say the recent stories have cut through.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Once the worm turns it turns with a vengeance 


I assume that the Tories will leave Johnson in charge for the time being, a hell of a lot of shit in the pipeline which they would like him to take credit for; but is there going to be a good time to elect a new leader and rebrand in time for the next general election?

[Sheilbh]

I assume that the Tories will leave Johnson in charge for the time being, a hell of a lot of shit in the pipeline which they would like him to take credit for; but is there going to be a good time to elect a new leader and rebrand in time for the next general election?

I think I read from Esther Webber that the Tories basically think they need a new leader in place by/over the summer recess. That'll be two and a half year's since the last election. So it would give a new leader at least one parliament to try and get some stuff done/define their agenda before an election in either autumn 2023 or spring 2024.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, that is probably the best time. Low summer covid, the NI increases already taken place, last time I looked at gas futures the situation for winter 22/23 looked far better than for this winter.

Hopefully people will see past the new facade this time though.

[Jacob]

After the Leeds fans chanting "Boris Johnson is a cunt" we now have the Darts World Championship chant: "stand up if you hate Boris"
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1473067440623996932?s=20

I think it's fair to say the recent stories have cut through.

A reply claimed it was unsurprising given the event was in "metropolitan north London". I assume the implication that darts fandom is a thoroughly bourgeois metropolitan kind of thing is spot on?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - will they be a Major or a Brown.

It's difficult to guess - I think we are returning to politics as normal after the pandemic politics (rally round the flag, frustration/second wave, vaccine bump).

In part it depends on Starmer's ability to take advantage of this moment which feels like the first time the public's noticed him and so far I think he's done pretty well. I also think he has a better team around him. I think that possibly the most interesting polling was the stuff on the economy and when people are asked about the economy the main things they think about now are cost of living, interest rates, salaries etc. That's more comfortable territory for Labour than for the most of the last decade when debt and deficit where the key issues - it also suggests to me that people are moving on from or forgiving the financial crash. It feels like that's only going to increase over the next year with the tax rise and however transitory this inflation is.

On the other hand 80 seats is a big majority. It wouldn't take much to be more competent than Johnson. If they can somehow manage their party (which I'm not sure is possible at the minute), then they can probably get a couple of quick wins before an election. Especially if Starmer's a Kinnock who is necessary and effective at shifting the party, but maybe not able to convince the public that he's a potential PM.

And obviously lots depend on who the Tories will pick as a replacement.

[Sheilbh]

A reply claimed it was unsurprising given the event was in "metropolitan north London". I assume the implication that darts fandom is a thoroughly bourgeois metropolitan kind of thing is spot on?

Alexandra Palace is in metropolitan (well, more suburban - but very nice, posh, leafy suburbs) north London. But I wouldn't necessarily guess that it's a strictly local crowd

I'd guess that's a joke or it's Brendan O'Neill workshopping his article for Spiked or the Spectator on how darts fans are the real elite.

Having said all that I quite like darts (I also love snooker - I think I just like sports with mental arithmetic on the side) and I've heard it's a great night out. I think there's an open bar included in the price of the ticket

Edit: Nice that darts is having a moment - because this leg went viral over the weekend. Largely I think Americans enjoying how hyped everyone, especially the commentator is:
https://twitter.com/OfficialPDC/status/1471957843544735751?s=20

[The Larch]

A reply claimed it was unsurprising given the event was in "metropolitan north London". I assume the implication that darts fandom is a thoroughly bourgeois metropolitan kind of thing is spot on?

Alexandra Palace is in metropolitan (well, more suburban - but very nice, posh, leafy suburbs) north London. But I wouldn't necessarily guess that it's a strictly local crowd

What's the socioeconomic/political breakdown of darts (and snooker for that matter) fans, if any? Being basically "pub games" I always assumed that it'd be salt of the earth, blue collar types, basically, but that's all assumption on my part.

[Josquius]

The 80 seat majority - I do believe it's a mistake to read too much into that considering how narrow so many of those seats victory are. At least half of them are going back to labour come what may. 40 seats is still a big thing to overturn, but still... Its all in play I say if starmer can manage to sell his competence and keep the battleground away from the Conservatives chosen field of identity politics.

It's not and it's never been the sole health provider in the UK. That's what Nye Bevan meant by getting doctors to work for the NHS by "stuffing their mouths with gold" - consultants especially kept their private practices. There's always been a question of how that sector interacts with the NHS and how the entirely private GP network interacts with the NHS (I actually think there's a strong argument to nationalise GPs now). There's always been tensions between top-down v internal market etc. And the NHS goes back and forth - the latest proposed reforms I heard of were actually moving it back from an internal market to more centralised control because Whitehall felt that during covid they didn't have the levers to do things in response to a crisis, power was too diffuse and spread across multiple levels (NHS England, NHS Trusts, Commissioning Groups, Primary Care Trusts etc). I think there's a tension around marketisation within the NHS - but that is different than privatisation and the principle of universal healthcare that's free at the point of need.

True private health care has always existed. But I do get the impression until the past decade or two it was very under the radar. Something people didn't realise existed. The nhs was just the standard for everyone and that was that.

Fair enough privatisation may not be the best term for what the tories are doing with their reducing it to a bare bones minimal service. But what better term is there for that?

I'll also note on nhs privatisation... That the EU planned to do this via the trade agreement with the US was a absolutely insane but commonly believed conspiracy at referendum time.

I am less certain there's going to be a great emigration out of the cities. I think the people who always hated the city have left. And they assumed everyone else living there also secretly hated it and wanted to leave, but actually most people who live in cities are there because they want to be and it's not all false consciousness

I would love to see an actual study on this as all we can do is guess for now. But I know loads of people thinking about leaving London but who haven't made the leap yet.
There seems to be a big common belief that the whole thing is temporary. That they could pack their bags and move their family to Yorkshire only to then get the notice they have to go back to the office by Tuesday or they're out of a job.
If things stay on course with wfh and it becomes a more stable proposition I can see another sharp uptake.