Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I'm increasingly thinking being leader after Corbyn was a poisoned chalice and starmer would have been wise to steer clear.
It all seemed to be going so well but then Corbyn but his foot in his mouth/threw a grenade and wrecked starmers great attempt to put the anti semitism thing to bed and heal the divide.
The sheer hypocrisy from the far left, screaming about how people in the party were mean to Corbyn thus starmer fully deserves everything.... If starmer does go and Burnham comes in then he better have a plan to deal with this.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I think I agree.

And I think there's a real issue with Corbyn because it will only be a matter of time before he says/does something else. He already attended the pro-Palestine protests during the recent violence where he gave a speech stood next to this - which I think is problematic:


There's a huge challenge because most Labour members still like Corbyn and basically see him as a Tony Benn style national treasure. But I think as long as he's around and speaking he will be toxic with the wider public. There will be constant fights over whether Labour should kick him out or let him back in etc. I don't know how to end that.

The other big issue is that I think the left and the right of the party care more about getting rid of each other/triumphing in the factional fight than anything else. That's also something that I think is going to be a huge challenge for whoever is the next leader.

I thought Starmer might be able to basically de-toxify the brand before the next leader starts to build to victory. But I don't know, I don't think it's that easy any more. I think I overestimated Starmer's credibility as someone on the soft left who could keep most of the left behind him and I underestimated just how bad the factional divide is in Labour now. And until either one side wins or they decide they can work together, I think the leadership is going to be a very tough job.

I slightly wonder if Burnham could be the man just because he has worked very well at developing common positions within Labour leaders in all the council in and around Manchester which run the gamut from very Corbynite to Blairites. I don't know if he could do that nationally.

But all of that is part of why I slightly worry that, combined with the shifts in the election map, maybe Labour isn't a functional, living party anymore. It's just a shell that is held together by FPTP.

[garbon]

Yes, it feels like it is time to put the zombie down.

[The Brain]

In my book a party that won't come out against antisemitism is a party you just walk away from.

[Josquius]

The trouble with the end of labour is that wouldn't work. With fptp labour has to exist as a united party if it is to exist at all. Lest we forget it has always been a big tent of disparate views in alliance to stand a chance in elections. This is nothing new.
Labour really needs to prioritise electoral reform. That done then Labour can disband. But for now it is necessary. Kill labour and their vote would split between the lib dems, greens, and successor parties, with tories winning even more seats as a result.

[alfred russel]

I kind of think of England as sort of Massachusetts, but with a more moderate conservative party that gets 40% of the electorate on a good day, and the rest of the population that would vote for democrats split between labour, lib dems, and greens.

[Sheilbh]

It would just lead to a new anti-Tory party. That's the logic of FPTP - just the same way as Labour replaced the Liberals (in three elections and four years).

It would take a while for the new anti-Tory party to be worked and to become the clear successor. But a party would become the alternative to the Tories and the anti-Tory vote would consolidate behind it in most of the country because that's what FPTP does. It forces a two party system.

I think the opposite is true - pass electoral reform and Labour splits because without FPTP there is no reason to stay together. Labour isn't necessary in itself but FPTP results in big coalition parties and a clear dividing line, so in the system Labour is necessary but would a successor would follow.

I kind of think of England as sort of Massachusetts, but with a more moderate conservative party that gets 40% of the electorate on a good day, and the rest of the population that would vote for democrats split between labour, lib dems, and greens.

In England - the Tories get 50% on a good day. 2019 they were up to 47%

[alfred russel]

Even with London? I feel like times have changed...

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - London's not that big in terms of population to the rest of England. It went about 48% Labour - but, as in Scotland and Wales, there are still Tories so they got 32%. Boris Johnson is a London MP.

London still has about 21 Tory MPs - largely in outer London.

It's interesting in a way because it shows how important tactical voting is. The election results in London in terms of votes in 2019 were about the same as in 1997 (Labour 48%, Tories 32%, Lib Dems 15%). But the Tories won double the number of seats but Labour are down about 10 seats and the Lib Dems did half as well. In 1997 there were proper tactical voting campaigns - even ways to "lend your vote" to someone else (so I vote Lib Dem in my marginal seat and you vote Labour in your marginal seat even though neither of us like those parties). Now Labour and Lib Dems dislike each other more and the anti-Tory vote/sentiment still isn't strong enough. So the anti-Tory vote is comparatively inefficient.

[Tamas]

Yeah - London's not that big in terms of population to the rest of England. It went about 48% Labour - but, as in Scotland and Wales, there are still Tories so they got 32%. Boris Johnson is a London MP.

Uhm, if you mean "London" in realistic terms i.e. the city and the agglomeration around it, doesn't that come to like 10 million, i.e. almost 20% of the country?

[Tamas]

Also:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/01/met-officers-face-gross-misconduct-inquiry-over-bianca-williams-search

I sure continue to be glad of having been born with the continent-appropriate skin colour because putting up with shit like this your whole life  must get very old very fast.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - London's not that big in terms of population to the rest of England. It went about 48% Labour - but, as in Scotland and Wales, there are still Tories so they got 32%. Boris Johnson is a London MP.

Uhm, if you mean "London" in realistic terms i.e. the city and the agglomeration around it, doesn't that come to like 10 million, i.e. almost 20% of the country?

Yeah - fair point. Greater London (I don't think there's any weird Paris/Ile-de-France thing about London, but I could be wrong), is about 20%. I think it's probably the second biggest English region but it's obviously not big enough to really make a difference to English results.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah - London's not that big in terms of population to the rest of England. It went about 48% Labour - but, as in Scotland and Wales, there are still Tories so they got 32%. Boris Johnson is a London MP.

Uhm, if you mean "London" in realistic terms i.e. the city and the agglomeration around it, doesn't that come to like 10 million, i.e. almost 20% of the country?

Yeah - fair point. Greater London (I don't think there's any weird Paris/Ile-de-France thing about London, but I could be wrong), is about 20%. I think it's probably the second biggest English region but it's obviously not big enough to really make a difference to English results.

Paris/Grand Paris/Île-de-France 

Grand Paris still somewhat vaguely defined, as a bonus.

[Sheilbh]

It's so weird Dominic Cummings being very online now - complete with a paid Substack (next week apparently on how Labour can win), doing AMAs (Global Britain is bullshit made up by people who like maps with arrows - the real upside for Brexit is procurement reform), looking into doing a podcast (God help us all) and now this:

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
Goddamn it #FreeBritney & consider how many non-famous non-rich people must be getting this sort of treatment too...

Ted Gioia
@tedgioia
This should be a wake-up call for reform. Many people are deprived of their civil liberties in a court hearing that can be as short as 10 minutes. And once you've lost those rights, courts almost never give them back. The system is not going to #FreeBritney, because it's broken.

I half expect him to complete the rest of the very online experience and be posting thirst traps within the week

[Josquius]

I admit I am curious what he has to say on how Labour can win.
Likely something about them no longer being labour.