Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[ulmont]

Such an Euro thing. Never used WhatsApp.

Not just Euro, heavy use in Central and South America.

[Sheilbh]

I'd say this is good news if so. Shows less that labour have failed and more that sensible people have successfully got the message to vote tactically.


Edit - yup. Seems the lib dems won and labour did freakishly terrible.
I admit this by election had completely passed me by and I didn't realise it was happening. Really needs an investigation into what happened there. Hope my theory is right- given labour are so freakishly low I do suspect so. Anywhere in the country there's usually a solid base of at least 5-10% who will always vote Labour or Tory. Odd not to see it here.

Rumours Nandy and Rayner are calling round to see what support they have if they get rid of/challenge Starmer.

I think it'd be very funny if the main consequence of the Tories losing Chesham and Amersham was a Labour leadersip crisis

Edit: Also, this is the most Lib Dem thing I've ever seen:
https://twitter.com/josephdcassidy/status/1405819272119586817?s=20

[Tamas]

Sheilbh, you explaining earlier that the LibDems are total NIMBYs have absolutely killed my desire to ever vote for them.

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, you explaining earlier that the LibDems are total NIMBYs have absolutely killed my desire to ever vote for them.

It is crazy to see Tyr happy at them winning this election given that their three big issues in their campaign were: no to new houses, no to HS2 and the Tories are neglecting the South

Edit: And I mean no party is perfect or actually going to represent your views. They're all some form of coalition/internal compromise. So it's just what matters for you.

But this is an interesting example - as in Scotland - that actually you don't need a "progressive alliance" or a "unionist alliance". Voters are smart and can work out how to tactically vote when they want to.

Edit: And in fairness to the Lib Dems - as a party they support planning reform/building new houses and HS2. But they are the masters of pavement politics that focuses entirely on local issues - and those are big issues in Amersham. So they'll happily campaign on local issues in a by-election - and let the new MP buck the party line. They're also famously good at turning local government presence into seats.

Of course that flexibility is possibly part of the reason why, in 2010, they had a very diverse and strange mix of seats that fell apart after the coalition. The national party was led by classical liberals who were ideologically closer to Cameron than Brown, but lots of their voters were under the impression they were to the left of Labour.

[Josquius]

That was a hold over from Kennedy who really had done a fair bit of work in cementing the lib dems position as the true party of the left with Labour moving centwards.

Despite Clegg being from the right of the party he didn't do much to pop this bubble and let people believe what they want.

Definitely true the kind of policies the lib dems won with here are not what we want to see on a national level but with the massive tory majority I don't think there's a risk there. HS2 is somewhere the tories have backed themselves into a corner of having to do the right thing for once, I can't see it being cancelled for the Birmingham to London section at least. Though definitely still a risk they could screw the north.

I'm taking this one as a victory in the my enemy's enemy sense. Labour have been muttering lately about trying to get more community involvement and such like lately though. Which is a worry. If I asked people what they wanted they would have said faster horses and all that

[Sheilbh]

There's also something slightly fascinating in this win. It's the first for Sir Ed Davey as leader and it's interesting to me that electing him as leader was seen as possibly a bad choice because he was cabinet minister in the coalition and the damage that did to the Lib Dem brand. But I wonder if actually the best strategy for the Lib Dems isn't to pile further into competing for university towns and plush suburbs as a progressive party (which was Layla Moran's pitch), where there's already a crowded field with Labour and the Greens strong in those areas. Perhaps their best bet is to own their record in the coalition and pitch directly for commuter-belt, South-Eastern seats as the sort of last standing representatives of that Clegg-Cameron politics: affluent, educated, pro-European, fiscally/economically centre-right, culturally/socially liberal.

With Labour showing no inclination of trying to win those votes and the Tories taking them for granted I feel there is possibly space for the Lib Dems there (and possibly even for the Greens if they play up their localist/conservationist wing). It might not work but it's the first time since 2015 where I can really see a viable way forward for the Lib Dems

Edit: Incidentally this is reason #958 why I don't like the idea of a "progressive alliance" because if that is where the Lib Dems can win - then I think there's zero doubt in my mind that in a hung parliament they'd rather work with the Tories again rather than Labour (though probably not through a formal coalition).

[HVC]

Such an Euro thing. Never used WhatsApp.

Not just Euro, heavy use in Central and South America.

Pretty big around here too, for at least the last 5 years

[Duque de Bragança]

Such an Euro thing. Never used WhatsApp.

Not just Euro, heavy use in Central and South America.

Pretty big around here too, for at least the last 5 years

So all Canada, not just Québec, is part of Latin América? 

[Sheilbh]

Such an Euro thing. Never used WhatsApp.

Not just Euro, heavy use in Central and South America.

Pretty big around here too, for at least the last 5 years

It's very popular in Africa too - but I think it's not used at all in South-East or East Asia.

[Josquius]

There's also something slightly fascinating in this win. It's the first for Sir Ed Davey as leader and it's interesting to me that electing him as leader was seen as possibly a bad choice because he was cabinet minister in the coalition and the damage that did to the Lib Dem brand. But I wonder if actually the best strategy for the Lib Dems isn't to pile further into competing for university towns and plush suburbs as a progressive party (which was Layla Moran's pitch), where there's already a crowded field with Labour and the Greens strong in those areas. Perhaps their best bet is to own their record in the coalition and pitch directly for commuter-belt, South-Eastern seats as the sort of last standing representatives of that Clegg-Cameron politics: affluent, educated, pro-European, fiscally/economically centre-right, culturally/socially liberal.

With Labour showing no inclination of trying to win those votes and the Tories taking them for granted I feel there is possibly space for the Lib Dems there (and possibly even for the Greens if they play up their localist/conservationist wing). It might not work but it's the first time since 2015 where I can really see a viable way forward for the Lib Dems

Edit: Incidentally this is reason #958 why I don't like the idea of a "progressive alliance" because if that is where the Lib Dems can win - then I think there's zero doubt in my mind that in a hung parliament they'd rather work with the Tories again rather than Labour (though probably not through a formal coalition).

Definitely. With the rise of the greens and the SNP and plaid as strong as ever the left is a crowded field.
Meanwhile the tories surge to the populist right has alienated the moderate right.
They're a tribal lot, harder to sway than left wingers, it's not an easy group to target. But I do wonder whether this recent by election shows they're finally seeing that enough is enough with johnson. The removal of the threat of Corbyn could have them feeling a lot more confident to vote with their hearts too.

The lib dems would rather work with the tories again.... Don't agree with you there. With Cameron / Tory Blair and Clegg it made sense. Especially after a decade of Labour.
Unless the tories sharply change tack then the prospect of working with them is impossible. Especially if the lib dems Court the anti brexit tory centre right vote.

The main question is will labour be willing to do what it takes - a Scottish independence referendum and reformation of the UK into a modern democracy. I hope in light of the way things are changing and the rise of the greens Labour will do the right thing here

[Sheilbh]

Definitely. With the rise of the greens and the SNP and plaid as strong as ever the left is a crowded field.

I don't think I'd see Plaid or SNP as necessarily on the left. Also I find the current writing up about Plaid and Welsh independence a bit weird - I think it's just because of Scotland and because there's only recently polling on it - but Plaid have been on about 20% for the last ten years and normally coming third behind Labour and the Tories; in the first ten years of devolution they were winning far more votes and were normally the main opposition.

They're a tribal lot, harder to sway than left wingers, it's not an easy group to target.

I'm not sure they're that much more tribal than Labour's vote to be honest.

But I do wonder whether this recent by election shows they're finally seeing that enough is enough with johnson. The removal of the threat of Corbyn could have them feeling a lot more confident to vote with their hearts too.

Yeah - I think when it came down to the choice of never Brexit v never Corbyn a lot of voters who were very unhappy with Johnson and the Tories went for never Corbyn.

The lib dems would rather work with the tories again.... Don't agree with you there. With Cameron / Tory Blair and Clegg it made sense. Especially after a decade of Labour.
Unless the tories sharply change tack then the prospect of working with them is impossible. Especially if the lib dems Court the anti brexit tory centre right vote.

I think that's the triumph of hope over experience - but then I am very anti-Lib Dem

The main question is will labour be willing to do what it takes - a Scottish independence referendum and reformation of the UK into a modern democracy. I hope in light of the way things are changing and the rise of the greens Labour will do the right thing here

But that's the big challenge for Labour.

If Labour goes for PR then the party is over - they will split. As we've both noted the factions in Labour are, at the minute, more interested in fighting each other than anything else and if it wasn't for FPTP I have no doubt they would have just separated. That might be better for the left overall as an electoral force (though looking at the rest of Europe with PR - I'm not so sure) but I think PR is more of an existential threat for Labour than it is the Tories. And, of course, they'd need a massive landslide to pass electoral reform because the SNP are huge beneficiaries of FPTP and there is no way they'd abolish it, it would destroy their leverage; right now they won 45% of the vote in Scotland but got almost 50 of 59 seats. Plus as a regionalist party they have quite a low ceiling with PR so there's no way they'd be the third party in Westminster with PR. Doing the right thing = destroying the party and possibly ending up like PASOK or PS or PD in European countries.

And doing a deal with the SNP or Plaid opens up the issues of the union - there are lots of English voters who think that England subsidises Scotland and Wales and any deal would just mean more spending, which is probably right as part of any deal. But also Labour would need a way to get around English Votes for English Laws - it's only a standing order so a Labour government could just get rid of it, but I think passing legislation that only affects England (as is the case for a lot of Westminster legislation) depending on SNP and Welsh votes would be very unpopular. It happened during the 2005 Parliament when Labour, partly led by a Scottish MP relied on the votes of Scottish Labour MPs to pass legislation that only affected England which caused a lot of resentment because it raised the West Lothian question in very real form. But short of devolution to an English parliament with Westminster as a federal government, that's what would happen - and to win a majority of English votes Labour need a huge landslide, I think they could have governed in 1945, 1997 and 2001 but that's it.

[Sheilbh]

And inevitably the thing that Tory MPs are pushing following this result is to stop the government's plans for planning reform to build more homes

Jessica Parker
@MarkerJParker
NEW: Isle of Wight Tory MP Bob Seely says he fears #CheshamAndAmersham results is, "the start of a significant push-back from communities on planning."
He warns that, "Relentless housing targets - very often the wrong housing in the wrong areas - just feeds the hamster wheel of planning doom..."
Adds, "We need a better way of doing things. We want to work with Government to make this a success.  But more of them same will be political suicide, and, as Winston Churchill said, the problem with political suicides is that you live to regret them."

[The Brain]

The Isle of Wight is always too dear though.

[Valmy]

And inevitably the thing that Tory MPs are pushing following this result is to stop the government's plans for planning reform to build more homes

Jessica Parker
@MarkerJParker
NEW: Isle of Wight Tory MP Bob Seely says he fears #CheshamAndAmersham results is, "the start of a significant push-back from communities on planning."
He warns that, "Relentless housing targets - very often the wrong housing in the wrong areas - just feeds the hamster wheel of planning doom..."
Adds, "We need a better way of doing things. We want to work with Government to make this a success.  But more of them same will be political suicide, and, as Winston Churchill said, the problem with political suicides is that you live to regret them."

Planning DOOOOOOM awaits the Tories

I will point out Winston committed political suicide multiple times but somehow did alright.

[Valmy]

but then I am very anti-Lib Dem