Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Maladict]

Oh that controversy.

I've been using trains little bit for holidays last week and seeing family. It is very weird as they are basically all running at half capacity for social distancing.

Social distancing on trains never worked, there just isn't enough space. I've had people sit close to me a couple of times on busy trains, which takes a little getting used to. But I'm generally fine with it, unless it's a bunch of young people (or football supporters) with their masks under their chins.

[Gups]

Oh that controversy.

I've been using trains little bit for holidays last week and seeing family. It is very weird as they are basically all running at half capacity for social distancing.

Maybe varies by provider but I got a train back from Brighton on Saturday (having cycled there) and it was about 90% full and there were no social distancing measures in place.

St Ives is 5.5 hours from London in the car if there is no traffic. In reality, unless you drive through the night, it's more like 8 (assuming no stops). Train is 5.5 hours

[Richard Hakluyt]

I wonder how the ventilation and aircon systems affect risk? At first glance modern trains look pretty likely places to catch covid to me.

[Josquius]

On the metro here they've signs telling you to leave all the windows open.
Which people rarely do.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Nearly all my train usage is the West Coast main line; there are no openable windows on those trains. Not that I have started using trains again yet.

The London-Brighton trains are similar; I would guess that a majority of British trains no longer have openable windows.

[Josquius]

In further 'lets laugh at the silly boondongle news'

https://www.ft.com/content/c77b7aa1-cebc-47c6-a04a-d21eef2d1d38?fbclid=IwAR0hLBrnVl0fDLKKS-UqVvMgEv1Fc1CmPtq5qO_Jk-uVYENLF8y1fTUFr34

Plan to build UK trade ship will break WTO agreement, warn experts
Civilian shipbuilding not excluded from contracts that must be opened to global competition


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   https://www.ft.com/content/c77b7aa1-cebc-47c6-a04a-d21eef2d1d38?fbclid=IwAR0hLBrnVl0fDLKKS-UqVvMgEv1Fc1CmPtq5qO_Jk-uVYENLF8y1fTUFr34

   Boris Johnson's plan to build a new yacht in the UK is set to fall foul of a World Trade Organization agreement struck by his own government last year, experts have warned.

The prime minister last month announced that he hoped a domestic shipbuilder would create the £200m vessel, a successor to the Royal Yacht Britannia, to promote British trade and industry around the world.

But while Number 10 has announced its "intention" to build the as yet unnamed ship in the UK, this would breach an agreement that Britain signed up to only eight months ago.

Ministers failed to exclude the construction of civilian ships from the list of contracts that must be opened to global competition when it signed the WTO "government procurement agreement" (GPA) covering 48 countries last October.

The government has set up a national flagship taskforce, hosted in the defence ministry, to oversee the creation of the trade yacht, which will be manned with Royal Navy personnel. However, its purpose is entirely for business rather than security. 

Liz Truss, trade secretary, boasted in October that the GPA would allow British companies to keep bidding for public sector contracts around the world worth £1.3tn a year. Likewise, she said, overseas groups would be able to continue to bid for UK public sector contracts, "delivering better value for UK taxpayers".

But that could frustrate the government's attempts to use a "Buy British" approach to building the new yacht. Item 47 of annex 4 of the UK schedule of the GPA explicitly says the procurement of "ships, boats and floating structures, except warships" must be advertised internationally and awarded without discrimination.

Other countries, including the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, have, by contrast, ensured that their GPA agreements exclude civil shipbuilding.

Out of the largest 50 motor-powered superyachts currently at sea, only one (el Mahrousa) was built in the UK — in 1865.

However, Cammell Laird, which has a shipyard in Merseyside, north-west England, says it is ready and willing to manufacture the new trade yacht.

Aline Doussin, head of the international trade team at law firm Hogan Lovells, said it would be hard for the UK to avoid allowing international competition to build the ship unless it was an actual military vessel.

"It is likely that the GPA will be engaged, which means that open, fair and transparent conditions of competition will have to be met, and GPA country suppliers would have to be treated in the same manner as domestic ones," she said.

Emily Thornberry, shadow trade secretary, said the government had failed to take "the most basic and simple steps" to guarantee the boat could be built in Britain.

"It is yet more copper-bottomed, ocean-going incompetence from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and they need to get themselves on solid legal ground before spending any more public funds on this project," she said.

A government spokesperson said the ship would definitely be built in UK shipyards. She said the programme would be "compliant with our obligations under the WTO GPA" but did not say how that could be the case given Item 47 of annex 4.

One Whitehall figure said the government was planning to claim that the new trade yacht is indispensable for national security in an attempt to bypass those rules.

But the government announcement of the launch said it would be used "to host high level trade negotiations and trade shows and will sail all over the world promoting British interests".

As a result the UK faces potential legal challenges from overseas governments or shipbuilders against the government's protectionist stance.

Dmitry Grozoubinski, a trade expert who is visiting professor at the University of Strathclyde, said the government might try to structure the deal to avoid the letter of the GPA rules.

"Ringfencing this procurement is demonstratively contrary to their spirit. The arguments cited for keeping the procurement local — jobs, upskilling, patriotism — apply equally to any purchase made by the government and are precisely what the GPA was negotiated to set aside," he said.

"The government can't simultaneously present itself as a champion of the rules-based trading system and retain the freedom to ignore those rules whenever politically expedient," he added.

[The Larch]

"The government can't simultaneously present itself as a champion of the rules-based trading system and retain the freedom to ignore those rules whenever politically expedient," he added.

I don't see why not, given that the British government's official position during the whole brexit negotiation was "Having the cake and eating it".

[mongers]

Yeah - I think the French ban is if rail could do the journey in 2.5 hours. I'd push that to 4.

But by train London to Aberdeen is quicker than St Ives. There's a reason there's a night train to Cornwall - it is far away (as far as Newcastle) and, despite summer tourism, still very rural.

Shelf there's an hourly train from Paddington that's direct to Cornwall, takes all of 4 hours 40 minutes to get to Truro, it's a relative fast service when I've used bits of it.

[The Brain]

In further 'lets laugh at the silly boondongle news'

https://www.ft.com/content/c77b7aa1-cebc-47c6-a04a-d21eef2d1d38?fbclid=IwAR0hLBrnVl0fDLKKS-UqVvMgEv1Fc1CmPtq5qO_Jk-uVYENLF8y1fTUFr34

Plan to build UK trade ship will break WTO agreement, warn experts
Civilian shipbuilding not excluded from contracts that must be opened to global competition

Jesus. As Beyoncé would say: put a gun on it.

[Syt]

The Queen, trying to cut a cake with a ceremonial saber.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1403591864100470784?s=20

[The Larch]

The Queen, trying to cut a cake with a ceremonial saber.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1403591864100470784?s=20

That is... quite weird and awkward.

Edit: More awkward pictures with British leaders.

[HVC]

Merkel does like the Mr. Burns hands.

[Zanza]

So when the leaders of Western world came together to discuss climate change, Covid, confronting China, a global corporate tax etc. Johnson chose to have a dispute on sausage imports to Northern Ireland?  Oh well...

[Josquius]

It depresses me that it's so bloody obvious the UK is clearly being unreasonable in this. It's a simple choice of trade with the single market or send standards into the gutter. But Johnsons tub thumping just keeps working.
I swear it's like people want the country to end.

[Sheilbh]

So when the leaders of Western world came together to discuss climate change, Covid, confronting China, a global corporate tax etc. Johnson chose to have a dispute on sausage imports to Northern Ireland?  Oh well...

I think that was a fairly small part of the overall summit - and I'd be annoyed at the French, the EU and Germany seemed to get their message across in a way that was aware of the sensitivities of Northern Ireland. France's messaging was less adroit, played into Johnson's argument and could inflame things in Northern Ireland.

Although the most important moment on Northern Ireland is tomorrow when the nominations for First and Deputy First Minister will be voted on. Edwin Poots has nominated a former special advisor of his rather than take up office himself. But when the DUP nominate their selection for First Minister, Sinn Fein have to nominate their choice for Deputy First Minister (legally these roles are equal and they have a veto over each other). It is very likely that Sinn Fein will make a nomination, but there is an outside chance that they won't which would mean the Northern Ireland Secretary would have to arrange Stormont elections.

The reason for Sinn Fein to force an election now is that unionism is in chaos, the DUP is falling apart and may formally split and the UUP are still some way from any recovery. So this might be the best opportunity for Sinn Fein to become the largest party - as mentioned appointing the First Minister doesn't have any legal perks compared with Deputy First Minister but it would be an incredible achievement (though Sinn Fein are also likely to lose some of their vote to a rejuvanated SDLP and Alliance) and historic for Sinn Fein to "win" Northern Ireland. The next election will otherwise be next year, ahead of the Northern Irish "consent" vote on the protocol which is likely to be very tense - but unionists may coalesce between now and then and Sinn Fein might not want to take that risk. It's very likely they'll make a nomination because causing an election during a pandemic (and in the marching season) is going to be very difficult to justify politically without pissing everyone off. But the risk is there.

Meanwhile the marches have started - everyone is in balaclavas which makes it rather ominous and the marchers look young. I slightly worry there's a generation coming up who just want to fight in the way that their parents did - and obviously the known links with organised crime. One of my biggest concerns all through this has been that I don't know that London and Dublin have the feel they did (and had to) in the 90s and 80s - I don't know if the back-channels to the violent men still exist and I worry that in effect the street may surprise us. Lots of talk of betrayal by the British government (not inaccurately) - but also these marches and the people making speeches just seem so detached from the mainstream, political unionists. Hopefully everyone can, and will, de-escalate - as Sam Lowe's pointed out the differences between the EU and UK on this are relatively small and I think there is likely to be a solution - from what I've read it seems like a solution on medicines is very close.