Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

And Alex Salmond has launched a new pro-independence party, the Alba Party. They're only going to run in the PR list seats for the Scottish Parliament and I'd be surprised if they split the pro-indy vote much. But maybe on the PR section of the ballot - the Greens are pro-indy and basically pitch themselves for SNP voters' second vote, they'll now be competing with Alba. Though Salmond is pitching it as helping build a super-majority for independence:


Also the SNP will be very annoyed because this will change the election narrative. It was supposed to be about Sturgeon her leadership "success" () over covid and her vision for independence. That changes when she's competing with a former First Minister (and previously her mentor) running against her. I know we're getting a covid drama for Channel 4 to go along with the Brexit drama with Cumberbatch - I feel like the political drama adaptation we need is the SNP over the last decade

I'd be surprised if Jo Cherry - the anti-Brexit QC and MP who was kicked out of the SNP for her "gender critical" views - didn't end up in Alba as she's an old ally of Salmond's. It also looks like two of the three candidates announced so far are SNP councillors/activists who are also "gender critical" so it looks, interestingly and surprisingly, that trans rights may be one of the dividing lines within the SNP. One of the others was an SNP figure who left the party after a group were challenging certain financial irregularities and they were denied access to the books by the SNP's CEO (and Nicola Sturgeon's husband).

They're having lots of technical issues on their remote party launch - but it's very interesting

Edit: The other point is this does make SNP in-fighting an election issue now, but also it risks their positioning. The SNP are a bit like traditional Fianna Fail or New Labour. They want indpendence but the key part of their success has been to effectively be a sort of very broad church who position themselves as most competent party, a sort of non-ideological practical party of the centre/centre-left. With Alba on their flank they may have to talk more about independence to shore up that bit of their core vote, which might risk their position with people who basically know they're a pro-indy party but think they're just quite good managerial style government.

[Tamas]

Sturgeon her leadership "success" () over covid

Are you implying that doing exactly what England has, only announcing it a couple of days later in a calm solemn tone, does not qualify as succcess?

[Sheilbh]

I think we can all agree that "Remain Vigilant" was an inspired piece of clear communication and leadership compared to the English comms clusterburach of "Stay Alert".

[Tamas]

I think we can all agree that "Remain Vigilant" was an inspired piece of clear communication and leadership compared to the English comms clusterburach of "Stay Alert".

[Sheilbh]

And as expected Salmond may put pressure on Sturgeon from a more hardline perspective. He's just mused that a referendum might not be the only route to independence - meaning UDI.

There's already pressure on Sturgeon to move more in that direction and it's now likely that pressure will be on stage during the leaders' debate. And straight away if Salmond is out there talking about a possible UDI, it'll be a big question for Sturgeon by the press whether she supports that strategy.

There's no idea if this'll work or not - it could basically end up looking like anything from Fianna Fail forming in the 20s up to Change UK. But it's definitely adding a little chaos into the Scottish election and given that people will be voting in May it's probably the smartest time to launch a new party because you can take that momentum and attention (which any former First Minister launching a new party would get) straight into the campaign.

[Tamas]

Probably because I am not living there to see the evil English overlords syphoning away the wealth of Scotland, but I utterly fail to see the point of going through all the crap of a hostile declaration of independence.

[Sheilbh]

Probably because I am not living there to see the evil English overlords syphoning away the wealth of Scotland, but I utterly fail to see the point of going through all the crap of a hostile declaration of independence.

I think it's 99% internal politics within the pro-Indy camp.

On siphoning Scottish wealth, you have to admire the brazenness. As climate has become such a huge concern for everyon, the SNP/pro-Indy camp have pivoted from London is stealing Scotland's mineral wealth/natural gas resources which would be the bedrock of an independent Scotland to London is stopping Scotland from becoming a renewable energy powerhouse, which would be the bedrock of an independent Scotland

[celedhring]

And as expected Salmond may put pressure on Sturgeon from a more hardline perspective. He's just mused that a referendum might not be the only route to independence - meaning UDI.

There's already pressure on Sturgeon to move more in that direction and it's now likely that pressure will be on stage during the leaders' debate. And straight away if Salmond is out there talking about a possible UDI, it'll be a big question for Sturgeon by the press whether she supports that strategy.

That's the kind of dynamic that led Catalonia to the precipice in 2017, separatist parties trying to out-compete each other. Have fun!

[Valmy]

An offshore wind generation based economy? Because it sure as fuck isn't Scotland's lavish solar resources.

[celedhring]

Incidentally, I don't know how any pro-indy politician in Europe can really peddle an UDI as a realistic pathway to independence given how well it worked over here.

[Valmy]

It is kind of similar as while the Nationalists can win lots of seats in both the Scottish and UK Parliaments due to the fact that the Unionist vote is divided into three major parties and the FPTP system, they only win about 46% of the votes which is not exactly a mandate for a UDI just like in Catalonia.

[Sheilbh]

That's the kind of dynamic that led Catalonia to the precipice in 2017, separatist parties trying to out-compete each other. Have fun!

Yep - as I say Catalanisation of Scottish politics.

An offshore wind generation based economy? Because it sure as fuck isn't Scotland's lavish solar resources.

Yeah - UK's currently got about 15 GW capacity in off-shore wind but that should double in the next five years given current projects. But off-shore wind and tidal energy are big and growing here.

Incidentally, I don't know how any pro-indy politician in Europe can really peddle an UDI as a realistic pathway to independence given how well it worked over here.

So Catalonia is a presence in Scottish politics but it's a presence purely as a sort of solidarity movement for the pro-indy politicians. You'll always see lots of Catalan flags and yellow ribbons etc at pro-indy rallies and demonstrations. But the other side isn't really that big in Scottish politics because even unionists in the UK think Spain over-reacted - no-one wants to respond the way Spain did, even the most hardline unionists. So I think the pro-indy side see it as just solidarity and the unionist side see it as a cautionary tale of what not to do.

[Valmy]

Yeah - UK's currently got about 15 GW capacity in off-shore wind but that should double in the next five years given current projects. But off-shore wind and tidal energy are big and growing here.

Wow 15 whole GW. How cute.

But seriously while that is a great resource it is not like you can structure an entire economy around that.

[Sheilbh]

It is kind of similar as while the Nationalists can win lots of seats in both the Scottish and UK Parliaments due to the fact that the Unionist vote is divided into three major parties and the FPTP system, they only win about 46% of the votes which is not exactly a mandate for a UDI just like in Catalonia.

The Scottish Parliament has PR as well as FPTP. It's a bit like the system in Germany I think. So you have constituencies with FPTP MSPs, but you then have a second vote for a regional list which is based on PR. The theory was it would be incredibly unlikely for a party to ever win a majority outright so you'd always have coalitions. 73 MSPs are directly elected from constituencies and 56 are elected on the regional lists.

If I was being cynical I'd suggest this system was basically designed to mean that Scottish Labour would always be in power (and coalition) because of their historic position it was always likely that they'd win most constituencies and the opposition would be split. It was certainly sort of designed to keep the SNP out of power - because Labour would have multiple unionist coalition partners while the SNP wouldn't.

As it happened the SNP won a plurality in 2007 and were able to rely on Green and Tory support for their minority government and they then won a majority in 2011 which is unheard of. If you add up the list vote of pro-indy parties/candidates you get to over 50%.

I think any UDI would be based on a referendum but, as in Catalonia, it would be an unlawful referendum.

[Sheilbh]

Wow 15 whole GW. How cute.

But seriously while that is a great resource it is not like you can structure an entire economy around that.

I might be wrong - the UK currently gets about a quarter of its energy from wind which is mainly offshore. The capacity should double in the next five years and Scotland's a big chunk of that. Maybe not enough to structure an entire economy but a fairly decent base sector for a country of 5-6 million.

And definitely better than relying on off-shore gas instead