Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Some actual good news :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55757930

Nissan will be moving battery production to the Sunderland area so that its electric cars will meet the 55% threshold for local production that permits tariff-free export to the EU. About 70% of these cars are exported, almost all to the EU, so quite a big deal.

[Sheilbh]

Totally unrelated but reading that article and I'd not heard this before:

Speaking as the tie-up between Fiat Chrsyler and Peugeot Citroen was christened with new umbrella name Stellantis, boss Carlos Tavares said that the future of its Ellesmere Port plant depended on the support the UK government was prepared to offer after its decision to ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars after 2030.

I didn't know that was policy - obviously still need to phase out existing fossil fuel cars but it feels like that's going to really change our streets and it's not that far away

Batteries are an area where there should be strong state support for R&D and also for investment given that it's going to be essential for the energy transition/net zero target and I genuinely think all countries need to treat that almost like they'd treat winning a war or dealing with covid. Throw the entire financial weight of the state behind it (regardless of a narrow cost/benefit analysis) - and I think we already have a very large off-shore wind sector which is only going to grow so plus investment in batteries (especially research into solid-state batteries) seems like our easiest route to net zero.

[Josquius]

Some actual good news :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55757930

Nissan will be moving battery production to the Sunderland area so that its electric cars will meet the 55% threshold for local production that permits tariff-free export to the EU. About 70% of these cars are exported, almost all to the EU, so quite a big deal.

It is.
Can't help but read a warning into that though about how fragile Nissan continuing in Sunderland is.
If this favoured arrangement is altered in the slightest it may become uncompetitive again.

[celedhring]

Building batteries should really help the factory a lot though. There's huge demand and not enough production.

[Sheilbh]

So apparently Johnson is quite keen on the idea of a Royal Commission on the constitution once we're out of the pandemic/perma-crisis. Basically with terms of reference to look at how the UK (and regional and devolved) state/constitution operates post-Brexit.

In part this would be part of declining a new Indy Ref in Scotland but I also feel like it would be a good idea. We've made a lot of constitutional reforms in the last 25 years but they've each been done on their own terms with no-one actually pulling it all together and working out how the whole system does/should operate. So I feel like a formal inquiry that can make recommendations would be helpful and it could finally fulfill the promises made by all parties to Scotland in 2014.

The flipside is I think Johnson/the Tory idea of government is very old school Westminster-centric/parliamentary sovereignty (which means a very powerful executive) and I think any recommendations will be a rationalisation of powers that ultimately limits Westminster. But, maybe not.

[Tamas]

So apparently Johnson is quite keen on the idea of a Royal Commission on the constitution once we're out of the pandemic/perma-crisis. Basically with terms of reference to look at how the UK (and regional and devolved) state/constitution operates post-Brexit.

In part this would be part of declining a new Indy Ref in Scotland but I also feel like it would be a good idea. We've made a lot of constitutional reforms in the last 25 years but they've each been done on their own terms with no-one actually pulling it all together and working out how the whole system does/should operate. So I feel like a formal inquiry that can make recommendations would be helpful and it could finally fulfill the promises made by all parties to Scotland in 2014.

The flipside is I think Johnson/the Tory idea of government is very old school Westminster-centric/parliamentary sovereignty (which means a very powerful executive) and I think any recommendations will be a rationalisation of powers that ultimately limits Westminster. But, maybe not.

The general idea sounds good but can it wait until Starmer is in charge please?

[Sheilbh]

Someone's optimistic

[Josquius]

So apparently Johnson is quite keen on the idea of a Royal Commission on the constitution once we're out of the pandemic/perma-crisis. Basically with terms of reference to look at how the UK (and regional and devolved) state/constitution operates post-Brexit.

In part this would be part of declining a new Indy Ref in Scotland but I also feel like it would be a good idea. We've made a lot of constitutional reforms in the last 25 years but they've each been done on their own terms with no-one actually pulling it all together and working out how the whole system does/should operate. So I feel like a formal inquiry that can make recommendations would be helpful and it could finally fulfill the promises made by all parties to Scotland in 2014.

The flipside is I think Johnson/the Tory idea of government is very old school Westminster-centric/parliamentary sovereignty (which means a very powerful executive) and I think any recommendations will be a rationalisation of powers that ultimately limits Westminster. But, maybe not.

The general idea sounds good but can it wait until Starmer is in charge please?

I  fear any Johnson led reform, even assuming he actually wanted to head in the right direction not in completely the opposite way to what we need, could only be a disaster.

[Iormlund]

So I feel like a formal inquiry that can make recommendations would be helpful and it could finally fulfill the promises made by all parties to Scotland in 2014.

I can think of a pretty big promise they can´t fulfill. 

[Sheilbh]

One for Valmy who'll be reassured to know there's very low support for Welsh independence:

Should Wales be an independent country?

Yes: 22% (-1)
No: 53% (=)

(29% Yes, 71% No with DKs removed)

Via @YouGov
, 11-14 Jan.
Changes w/ 26-29 Oct.

In fact, more people would like to end devolution

Should Wales abolish the Senedd?

Yes: 26% (-1)
No: 45% (-3)

(37% Yes, 63% No with DKs removed)

Via @YouGov
, 11-14 Jan.
Changes w/ 26-29 Oct.

[Josquius]

Scotland will be independent before the end of the decade.
Wales I imagine will have to wait until mid century at the earliest. If at all. The north/south Wales split looms large.

[Zanza]

The Tories illegally prorogued parliament to circumvent a vote and lied to the Queen, they are openly hostile to the high judiciary and any oversight, they don't want parliamentary scrutiny, e.g. on trade deals and claim royal prerogative, they are hostile to devolution as shown by IMB, some want to abolish the Human Rights Act...

I somehow don't see how these instinctively authoritarian tossers would bring forth any positive constitutional reforms. But good luck!

[Sheilbh]

It may not be Johnson implementing it. The last time we had a Royal Commission on the Constitution it took over 4 years to collect evidence and issue its report. It was then largely ignored by the Heath government (it was appointed by Wilson) who had other things happening in 1973-4

But it did lead to proposals for devolution in the late 70s that were defeated in the referendum and, 25 years later, to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

Royal Commission's are not particularly quick or always accepted

Edit: And the other point is if they're going down Royal Commission there will be some political-ish figures on the membership, but it will generally be non-politicians. Not least because they are quite intensive so there'd be entire days and weeks of hearing evidence which isn't really practical for active MPs - might work for some peers though.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Royal commission could be Johnson just kicking Scottish independence into the long grass. His time will be done by the time the report is ready. On the other hand it might be a good report with decent ideas since people like Gove, Johnson etc will not be on the commission 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. The way it's been framed is that it's easier to say "no" to another referendum if you have a reason - plus politically it should strengthen the unionist parties because they can basically say "let's wait and see what the Commission says rather than rush into independence".

But also I think there is a dawning realisation that Cameron, Miliband and Clegg all promised to revisit devolution after the referendum. I imagine that would have been on the cards were it not for the Brexit referendum but is still owed and I think there is a general view that actually leaving the EU is probably a good moment to look at the constitution as a whole.

It's a bit like I think we will need a full public inquiry/review into the covid response - I'm less sure if Johnson will appoint that one, we might have to wait for his successor.

Looking at the last Royal Commission on the Constitution though and it's just a really interesting snapshot of a very different time. It went on from 1969-73. Most of the members had some involvement in politics but were at the end of their careers - almost all of them had fought in one war or the other, there were judges, trade union officials, former town council leaders and Lord Mayors, former directors of big companies, academics, at least one clergyman (Kirk of Scotland) etc. V mid-century Britain. I don't know what it would look like now.