Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

It's a bit like "which child was most responsible for Catholic pedophilia?". Even if you could find some child who "dressed sluttier" than the rest, it's a weird and slightly disturbing way to frame the problem.

That says something odd about the mental competence of the EU.

[The Brain]

It's a bit like "which child was most responsible for Catholic pedophilia?". Even if you could find some child who "dressed sluttier" than the rest, it's a weird and slightly disturbing way to frame the problem.

That says something odd about the mental competence of the EU.

I'm just one guy.

[Sheilbh]

Is Merkel at fault because she didn't want to add to the long list  of British special treatments within the EU when asked by Cameron for domestic political purposes?

No not really and responsibility doesn't = fault or blame

I think there's a strong argument that Brexit was inevitable in the medium term - and if Remain had won we'd probably be gearing up for another referendum after the fall-out of the covid recovery fund plus the issues with European vaccine procurement.

On the other hand I think it was incredibly contingent on the referendum being in 2016. I think if you move it one year down to 2017 - one year from the Eurozone crisis and the refugee crisis - I think Remain probably wins. Both of those crises are very associated with Merkel.

[Tamas]

Is Merkel at fault because she didn't want to add to the long list  of British special treatments within the EU when asked by Cameron for domestic political purposes?

No not really and responsibility doesn't = fault or blame

I think there's a strong argument that Brexit was inevitable in the medium term - and if Remain had won we'd probably be gearing up for another referendum after the fall-out of the covid recovery fund plus the issues with European vaccine procurement.

On the other hand I think it was incredibly contingent on the referendum being in 2016. I think if you move it one year down to 2017 - one year from the Eurozone crisis and the refugee crisis - I think Remain probably wins. Both of those crises are very associated with Merkel.

But saying she is responsible implies that her actions drove Brexit-related events and that this was influencing -or at least should have influenced- her actions. That just sounds arrogant. The UK already was a special child within the EU, how much further was German and EU policies were supposed to be influenced by the need to placate the British far-right?

[Josquius]

The brexiters have been trying that angle from the start really. It's part of the I'm not racist but... Defence. "I don't hate Europe. I just hate the EU. If they hadn't a, b, c then there'd be no problem" - utter bollocks 9 times out of 10 of course.

And yep. Totally agree 2016 was the absolute perfect storm for brexit. Hell, even just demographically and ignoring people changing their mind today would be the other way.

[Sheilbh]

But saying she is responsible implies that her actions drove Brexit-related events and that this was influencing -or at least should have influenced- her actions. That just sounds arrogant. The UK already was a special child within the EU, how much further was German and EU policies were supposed to be influenced by the need to placate the British far-right?

More responsible than any other politicians in Europe? I mean who else would you suggest - maybe Juncker at a push. It's certainly not Sarko or Monti or Hollande etc.

Merkel's been in charge of one of the big European countries for longer than anyone else, she's probably more responsible for most of Europe's policies and political decisions, certainly over the last 10 years, than any of her counterparts. I don't think Merkel could be expected to think what impact her policies and politics in the Eurozone or refugee crisis would have on Brexit, but I think politicians can be responsible for unintended consequences too.

Edit: For example I think you could look for the politician who is most responsible for, say, the global financial crisis. I don't think that would necessarily be because their actions drove it or was influencing or should have influenced their actions; I think chances are it was someone who was meaning well and responding to the politics around them to create deeper, more globalised links between financial institutions all over the world or to expand credit so it's available for more people. But the consequence of those policies also drove or had an impact in the severity of the crash and they're responsible for that too.

[Zanza]

How is she more responsible for Brexit than Johnson or May or Cameron? Or does "Europe" mean "Europe, but not Britain?"

Yeah - sorry I read it as continental Europe. Europe is often shorthand for the EU here.

The Telegraph article states that she is most responsible "on either side of the Channel". Which is of course ridiculous. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah that's nonsense. I mean it underplays Farage's role especially considering he's never been elected to the Commons.

[Tamas]

But saying she is responsible implies that her actions drove Brexit-related events and that this was influencing -or at least should have influenced- her actions. That just sounds arrogant. The UK already was a special child within the EU, how much further was German and EU policies were supposed to be influenced by the need to placate the British far-right?

More responsible than any other politicians in Europe? I mean who else would you suggest - maybe Juncker at a push. It's certainly not Sarko or Monti or Hollande etc.

Merkel's been in charge of one of the big European countries for longer than anyone else, she's probably more responsible for most of Europe's policies and political decisions, certainly over the last 10 years, than any of her counterparts. I don't think Merkel could be expected to think what impact her policies and politics in the Eurozone or refugee crisis would have on Brexit, but I think politicians can be responsible for unintended consequences too.

Edit: For example I think you could look for the politician who is most responsible for, say, the global financial crisis. I don't think that would necessarily be because their actions drove it or was influencing or should have influenced their actions; I think chances are it was someone who was meaning well and responding to the politics around them to create deeper, more globalised links between financial institutions all over the world or to expand credit so it's available for more people. But the consequence of those policies also drove or had an impact in the severity of the crash and they're responsible for that too.

I don't think we should be looking for responsible persons outside of the UK. It was a 150% internal UK politics thing. If she is responsible it is because she did not give what the Leavers wanted to stay and that is an impossible premise for two reasons:
1. she was in no positions to grant that
2. there was no level of concessions apart from the highly theoretical level of EU self-harm that could have convinced the forces behind Leave to stop their efforts


I mean, come on. Was Merkel supposed to forcefully keep the Syrian refugees/migrants out so as to avoid giving a PR opportunity to the Leavers? If there's anything we have learned during the Brexit referendum and subsequent years is that truth and facts had nothing to do with the Leaver campaign. They scare-mongered with Turkish EU membership in 2015 for example,  at that point that had even less plausability than Russian membership. What was Merkel supposed to do about that? Declare war on Turkey to prove a point?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I mean, come on. Was Merkel supposed to forcefully keep the Syrian refugees/migrants out so as to avoid giving a PR opportunity to the Leavers?

no, she was supposed to just keep them out.

[Valmy]

I thought the British already had all these exemptions and exceptions about the freedom of movement stuff though because they were an island.

Besides the British clearly had as much of a problem with Euros coming into their country than those refugees.

[The Brain]

Doesn't matter what they had or didn't have. The UK made huge poopoo and it's the fault of evil Europeans.

[The Brain]

I mean (sup Yi), on some level I can certainly understand it. The US has gotten rid of Trump, so acknowledging what a fuckup he was is OK. But the UK is stuck with Brexit, and has to live with it. Blaming external factors may help Brits emotionally through the years to come.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think we should be looking for responsible persons outside of the UK. It was a 150% internal UK politics thing. If she is responsible it is because she did not give what the Leavers wanted to stay and that is an impossible premise for two reasons:
1. she was in no positions to grant that
2. there was no level of concessions apart from the highly theoretical level of EU self-harm that could have convinced the forces behind Leave to stop their efforts.

But my point isn't about Leavers - I'm not suggesting that Nigel Farage and Michael Gove would suddenly back Remain but for Merkel (who knows about Johnson in 2017) - my point is about Leave voters. As I say I think 2016 was in a lot of ways the perfect moment from the perspective of Leavers to have that vote and a large part of that was because of the Eurozone crisis and the refugee crisis which, I think, are definitely tied ultimately to decisions made by Merkel - that doesn't mean they were bad decisions, or that they should have been otherwise or that Merkel should have cared about the potential impact in the UK but they helped create the conditions where Leavers appeal to a majority.

I think the court politics side of Brexit matters but it doesn't explain how they got 52% of the vote and there's no election I'm willing to just put down to people being stupid or gulled into false consciousness. And I think Leave voters are quite different from Leave leaders, which is something that you see in the polling.

I mean, come on. Was Merkel supposed to forcefully keep the Syrian refugees/migrants out so as to avoid giving a PR opportunity to the Leavers? If there's anything we have learned during the Brexit referendum and subsequent years is that truth and facts had nothing to do with the Leaver campaign. They scare-mongered with Turkish EU membership in 2015 for example,  at that point that had even less plausability than Russian membership. What was Merkel supposed to do about that? Declare war on Turkey to prove a point?

No I think the refugees issue is the one great thing that Merkel's done in her time. I think she was right and incredibly admirable in the stance she took (I'm less impressed with what's happened since).

But I think without that context (and the Eurozone crisis) it's probably unlikely that Leave wins.

Having said all that I think there were structural issues that probably mean the UK would leave the EU in the medium term - some of them are about UK politics, I think some of them are about a medium/big country (with the continent's financial centre) that isn't in the Euro and may be repeated with Hungary and Poland in the future. Even if we push that referendum back to 2017, I think you'd be looking at a referendum in the next year or two and the UK would probably vote to leave - but that would be because of covid and the covid recovery fund and the issues around procurement which I think would've exploded in UK politics.

[Sheilbh]

I thought the British already had all these exemptions and exceptions about the freedom of movement stuff though because they were an island.

Besides the British clearly had as much of a problem with Euros coming into their country than those refugees.

We weren't in Schengen but that's it. Freedom of movement is one of the four fundamental freedoms - it's pretty non-negotiable. There are quibbles around the edges (which the UK didn't really use - because they're difficult without ID cards or people registering with local addresses).

The actual point here is I think this was an issue where it really was about control rather than numbers. The polling on immigration started to become positive before Brexit, it's continued and since Brexit we have as high a level of net migration (2020 possibly excepted because of the pandemic) though there's been a shift to more people moving from outside the EU and fewer from within the EU. Despite all of this immigration isn't a concern in polling and it is still perceived positively by most people. And the government has offered residence rights ultimately to 5.4 million Hong Kong citizens who didn't previously have that right without any opposition.

I think this is because immigration has become political again - it's something you can meaningfully vote on. So people feel they have control and, in part, because of that they view immigration more positively.