Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

God I still can't stand the SNP

Clap for Nicola Sturgeon planned for Scotland next week
The clap has been organised to coincide with the First Minister's 50th birthday

A Scotland-wide 'Clap for Nicola Sturgeon' has been organised to coincide with the First Minister's 50th birthday next week.

The applause is set to take place on Sunday, July 19 at 8pm in recognition of Ms Sturgeon's role in guiding the country through the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

A Facebook event post for the clap, which already has 4,000 people listed as 'going' and a further 13,000 'interested', notes: "Our First Minister has done an exceptional job throughout what's been a strange year so far, to say the least.

"We clapped for our fantastic NHS. We even clapped for Boris at some point (why, I'm not quite sure). Let's give Nicola the "full regalia" on her 50th birthday, Sunday 19th July at 8pm. Get the pipes and pans oot and cheer once more for oor Nicola!

"And let's make sure Westminster hear us!"

It comes as the First Minister confirmed this afternoon in Parliament that Scotland can move forward to phase three of lockdown-easing measures.

Scotland's excess deaths are about 880 per million, the UK as a whole is about 960 per million (and England's about 970 per million). I'm not really sure this is such an astonishing success for Sturgeon, but here we are

[Admiral Yi]

 

Let's get some of those interns brainstorming on how to create a cult of personality.  We can use Twitter!

[Sheilbh]

Speaking of which Isabel Hardman has been pointing out that a lot of the Chancellor's tweets are clearly trying to promote "Brand Rishi". As she put it, it's never entirely clear if he's announcing economic policy or launching an aspirational menswear range. Eg:

Rishi Sunak @RishiSunak
The show must go on.

We're introducing a world-leading £1.57 billion rescue package to help cultural, arts and heritage institutions weather the impact of coronavirus.

[celedhring]

Our nationalists have been selling the same story despite the fact Catalonia has a larger deaths per million than the Spanish average. It's how it works.

Nobody's going to start a cult of personality about our president though, besides being a divisive figure (even among separatists), he looks like a retired insurance salesman. Not terribly cult-inspiring.

https://www.totcerdanyola.cat/uploads/s1/22/90/18/19/el-president-de-la-generalitat-quim-torra-5c0f8e09d2c8c.jpeg

[The Larch]

Our nationalists have been selling the same story despite the fact Catalonia has a larger deaths per million than the Spanish average. It's how it works.

Nobody's going to start a cult of personality about our president though, besides being a divisive figure (even among separatists), he looks like a retired insurance salesman. Not terribly cult-inspiring.

https://www.totcerdanyola.cat/uploads/s1/22/90/18/19/el-president-de-la-generalitat-quim-torra-5c0f8e09d2c8c.jpeg

You could say that Puchi has a bit of a personality cult going on, though.

[Richard Hakluyt]

God I still can't stand the SNP

Clap for Nicola Sturgeon planned for Scotland next week
The clap has been organised to coincide with the First Minister's 50th birthday

A Scotland-wide 'Clap for Nicola Sturgeon' has been organised to coincide with the First Minister's 50th birthday next week.

The applause is set to take place on Sunday, July 19 at 8pm in recognition of Ms Sturgeon's role in guiding the country through the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

A Facebook event post for the clap, which already has 4,000 people listed as 'going' and a further 13,000 'interested', notes: "Our First Minister has done an exceptional job throughout what's been a strange year so far, to say the least.

"We clapped for our fantastic NHS. We even clapped for Boris at some point (why, I'm not quite sure). Let's give Nicola the "full regalia" on her 50th birthday, Sunday 19th July at 8pm. Get the pipes and pans oot and cheer once more for oor Nicola!

"And let's make sure Westminster hear us!"

It comes as the First Minister confirmed this afternoon in Parliament that Scotland can move forward to phase three of lockdown-easing measures.

Scotland's excess deaths are about 880 per million, the UK as a whole is about 960 per million (and England's about 970 per million). I'm not really sure this is such an astonishing success for Sturgeon, but here we are

They will be waving little yellow books next 

[Sheilbh]

Although I don't expect it to be THAT bad as the UK government will fold at the last moment as usual, but why aren't the financial sector more in panic over losing passport rights?

Incidentally I read a bit more about this. I think part of the reason there's less of a fuss is also because this is all stuff that's a consequence of the UK deciding it wants to leave the customs union/single market. So this is stuff that's been baked in since December and doesn't really change even if there's a trade deal (as I say the big shock is this, not whether or not we have a trade deal). There are a couple of points that are being negotiated at the minute (shared research projects for example) but generally speaking, because the government's decided to leave the customs union and single market none of this is stuff the UK government wants to keep or the EU wants to offer.

[Sheilbh]

The EU is rather terrible at crisis reactions that need speedy action, and the early stages of Covid reflected that, with almost every country acting on its own with little to no EU intervention. What it does better is long term stuff, so let's hope that the recovery program works as intended.

Incidentally - now I've read a bit more about the recovery program I'm not convinced. The current plan proposed by Michel is that nations submit plans which are then approved by qualified majority voting (but could be blocked). Even if they're not blocked from what I've read the expectation is that money wouldn't start flowing until late 2021 with most of it following over the next two years. There's long term and there's a crisis - it all seems a bit we're all dead in the long term.

But it gets to the core issue at the heart of the EU - the tension between what it is doing/needs to do and democratic legitimacy.

I instinctively side with the spending money side of all debates, but the point the "frugal four" keep raising is valid if their national governments can't have a say, then what is the legitimacy of spending that money. It's a bit like the German Constitutional Court's ruling - I don't like it (and I fundamentally disagree with its treatment of European law) but it does raise a fundamental issue of democracy within the EU.

One other thought is given the current proposals it's probably best for everyone that the UK isn't there because there's no way this would even be on the table (except possibly as a Eurozone specific fund). I wonder if part of the "frugal four" - especially the non-Euro countries like Denmark and Sweden - being so vocal is in part because the UK isn't there to already have a tantrum

[Sheilbh]

Saw someone mention yesterday how unkind time has been to the coalition era. The reputations of Cameron, Clegg, Osborne etc are in tatters for a variety of reasons - working for Facebook on their global strategy, impact of austerity, major reforms of public health and the NHS that went very well, the referendums, the "Golden Era" with China etc.

So just to add to that the former Lib Dem campaign boss, who then went on to be head of strateg for the Remain campaign ("this is a very important referendum we need to win - call the Lib Dems!") is now advising on strategy and PR for the Hong Kong government. Edit: And apparently his other big client is the government Saudi Arabia

It sort of makes you understand why so many voters just want to burn it all down.

On this - former Chancellor Philip Hammond has now started working for the Saudis and the former top civil servant in the Business Department and Foreign Office has been appointed as a consultant for Huawei.

We really need a better class of pro-European establishment

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally Huawei banned from new purchases in telecoms network from the end of the year and to be removed by 2027 (Tory hardliners were pushing for 2023 - industry said that wasn't possible). Interesting mini thread by former Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband advisor:

Stewart Wood
@StewartWood
Today's screeching U-turn on allowing #Huawei access to our 5G architecture is an important moment for "Global Britain", this Govt's attempt to carve out a relationship with different parts of the world on terms independent of either Washington or Brussels. (Thread 1/7)
There are two clear reasons for the #Huawei U-turn. The first is US economic & political power. American sanctions on chip technology made our openness towards Huawei unsustainable given our political commitment to the US alliance & the reality of global supply chains. 2/7
The second reason for the #Huawei U-turn was Tory rebellion. 'Global Britain' involves a mixed position towards China: openness on economic issues, hawkishness on security issues. Neither Beijing nor Washington allows the world to be seen like this. Tory backbenchers agreed. 3/7
The #Huawei U-turn also shows how technology destroys the integrity of boundaries between economic & security issues. Pursuing different approaches to each is impossible with regard to technologies that merge the two. And treating them as separate was bordering on naive. 4/7
The whole #Huawei saga is an object lesson in the limits of de facto independence vs de jure independence in foreign policy. Our fundamental political commitments plus the realities of economic interconnectedness limit our options hugely. And revisiting these is really hard. 5/7
When I worked for Gordon Brown, Chinese PM Wen (in a rare unscripted moment) asked him on a visit to Beijing if he was pro-American or pro-European. Gordon replied that he saw the UK bridging the two. Wen said the future was continental & that the UK would have to pick one. 6/7
Global Britain is based on a pick-&-mix approach to commercial, security, political & cultural alignments around the world. Post-Brexit, I doubt that approach will afford us any kind of genuine independence. Rather than pick-&-mix, will we keep getting told just what to pick? 7/7

[Josquius]

Are the Tories trying to position Rishi Sunak as the successor of Johnson?
Seeing a lot of posts around lately about how awesome he is, cheaper beer is all totally from him, etc...
Also would make a handy cover for their increasing xenophobia to have an Asian nominally in charge.

[Sheilbh]

Are the Tories trying to position Rishi Sunak as the successor of Johnson?
Seeing a lot of posts around lately about how awesome he is, cheaper beer is all totally from him, etc...
Also would make a handy cover for their increasing xenophobia to have an Asian nominally in charge.

I don't think the Tories are - I think he's on manoeuvres. Apparently he's working the backbenches to build up some body of support and is currently probably the only member of the cabinet you'd say Johnson probably couldn't fire (his polling numbers have been excellent - he's the only minister to have had a "good" crisis). He has also been very effective at getting his fingerprints over every announcement - if Johnson's team were managing this better the PM would be announcing a lot of the stuff Sunak has been doing, but Johnson and his team seem to be lacking grip a little. Which I suppose is what happens when you apparently have Johnson as chairman with Gove and Cummings running the show.

As I say I would not be surprised if the Tories get rid of Johnson after Brexit deal/no deal. He's not looking in charge or across the detail/is possibly vulnerable to Starmer, plus the Tories love a bit of regicide.

It feels a little too soon for Sunak but his case is pretty clear - he's clearly across the detail and minimally competent, plus he's arguably the first prominent figure in either party who isn't in some way defined by Brexit. And I think the Tories would find it appealing to have a BAME leader/PM just like their two women leaders/PMs while Labour are on their nineteenth middle-aged white man.

[Gups]

Are the Tories trying to position Rishi Sunak as the successor of Johnson?
Seeing a lot of posts around lately about how awesome he is, cheaper beer is all totally from him, etc...
Also would make a handy cover for their increasing xenophobia to have an Asian nominally in charge.

Why would he be "nominally" in charge as a Prime Minister just because he's Asian? Because he's brown he won't have the balls to lead or any agency of his own?  Perhaps you ought to reflect on whether you have your own biases.

If Sunak becomes leader of the Tories he would have been in the top 2 for Tory MPs and beaten his opponent in a vote of Tory members. He won't have been installed by some puppet master, he will have his won mandate.

He is impressive both objectively and in comparison to the useless shower that surrounds him. However, so far he's just had to announce giveaways and is lucky that the Treasury is by some distance the best functioning Govt Dept. We'll see how he does when he's announcing cuts or tax rises.

[Tamas]

He is impressive both objectively and in comparison to the useless shower that surrounds him. However, so far he's just had to announce giveaways and is lucky that the Treasury is by some distance the best functioning Govt Dept. We'll see how he does when he's announcing cuts or tax rises.

Yeah he has been smart enough at least to let experts in his department do their work while he smiles to the cameras. But as you said, his only job so far as a result has been to pour money onto the country and smile while doing so.

In that regard it is probably smart from him to push his bid now. Once proper recession hits he'll have a harder time. 

[Gups]

No way is he making a bid now. Suicidal. He has to wait until Boris resigns (following some shocking event that even he can't get away with) or the sharks are circling because of low poll ratings and a looming election. That isn't now, not even close.