Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

That helps, but that rant about austerity is still sitting there like a turd in the punch bowl. 

[Sheilbh]

That helps, but that rant about austerity is still sitting there like a turd in the punch bowl. 

You're very weak-stomached if that's a rant

That's separate - and true. Public services are worse as you'd expect after 10 years of real-term cuts and in some cases just cuts - especially services that are noticed by regular people.

But more importantly it's true politically. In 2010 austerity was a vote winner, even in 2015 it was a core part of the Tory message. In 2019 neither main party was running on austerity and the talk was about investing in public services. There's no right or wrong, but the pendulum swung  back.

[The Minsky Moment]

You seem to be suggesting a link between deficit spending and productivity growth.  That's not the Keynesian model.

That's right as to deficit spending.  However, it can be argued that certain kinds of spending - like infrastructure or R&D -  could have positive productivity effects, without regard to the overall fiscal position.

[Admiral Yi]

You're very weak-stomached if that's a rant

I'm not going to apologize for taking exception to sloppy thinking.

[Sheilbh]

You're very weak-stomached if that's a rant

I'm not going to apologize for taking exception to sloppy thinking.

You asked why there'd been a change despite the last decade, I explained

[Admiral Yi]

You asked why there'd been a change despite the last decade, I explained

The rant came before my question and your response.

[Sheilbh]

Okay - now I'm curious, what was the rant?!

[Admiral Yi]

Yes!

But we've had a decade of near-negative rates and the Tories have gone on and on about the need expansionary austerity and the need to balance the books. They are so shameless it's incredible

Teh Rant

[Sheilbh]

Okay - well I'm sorry for ruining the punch.

But I meant to rant/express incredulity at the Tory switcheroo after 10 years of austerity by Conservative governments, suddenly discovering austerity might not be good so they've announced the biggest single increase in spending since 1992 - and I think public sepnding will return to 2010 levels. As I say they are shameless and opportunistic and that might be why they win so many elections

[Admiral Yi]

But that's the entire logic of Keynesian fiscal stimulus.  Covid is going to lead to a drop in demand, and it's up to public spending to prop up aggregate demand.

You sound a little like a Republican criticizing Obama's stimulus on hypocrisy grounds.

[Sheilbh]

Okay - this was trailed last year. Covid has changed the calculation a bit, but it's been Tory policy since Johnson took over to start "levelling up". He replaced his Chancellor in part because he wanted more spending and reports were Sajid Javid was a little more "traditionally" Tory.

And it is shameless that they're now saying they want to be the "party of public services"

But as I say hypocrisy doesn't matter - there's no point moaning about. This hypocrisy is why they win - they change, they adapt, they are opportunistic and shameless. Ther respond to what's in front of them and it is a huge part of their success. I say it less critically than with outraged envy.

[The Minsky Moment]

But that's the entire logic of Keynesian fiscal stimulus.  Covid is going to lead to a drop in demand, and it's up to public spending to prop up aggregate demand.

That's not necessarily sound Keynesian doctrine.  Covid is arguably a supply shock because people work less and production declines; it's not an AD problem of insufficient demand chasing an excess of goods.

[Admiral Yi]

That's not necessarily sound Keynesian doctrine.  Covid is arguably a supply shock because people work less and production declines; it's not an AD problem of insufficient demand chasing an excess of goods.

Covid is arguably a demand shock because people only leave their houses to buy toilet paper.  They don't go to concerts, or restaurants, or on cruises, or on vacations, or travel at all.  To airlines in particular I'm sure this looks a lot like a demand shock.  Demand for oil seems to have dropped.

[Admiral Yi]

Speaking of which, I think Extinction Rebellion should stage some performance art about the fragility of society and what a wonderful learning opportunity covid presents.

[Sheilbh]

Speaking of which, I think Extinction Rebellion should stage some performance art about the fragility of society and what a wonderful learning opportunity covid presents.

They actually released a statement today

Extinction Rebellion UK - as part of a wider movement - exists to protect life, both now and for future generations. Right now we all need to prioritise public health, follow advice from scientists and doctors, and be mindful of the most vulnerable in our communities.

Mass public gatherings will not be organised by Extinction Rebellion if it is not safe to do so.

As such we can no longer make a commitment to the date of May 23rd for in-person rebellion in London based on Covid-19. We will make alternative, creative plans for May and June, watch this space!

We will return to London in future but can't be certain of a date right now, so we ask rebels to continue mobilising, to be ready for when the time is right. We believe in the need for mass civil disobedience, until the Government responds adequately to the ongoing climate and ecological emergency. As the pandemic passes nothing will feel the same and we need to be ready, we are already in a state of planetary crisis, and we do not have to return to business as usual.

Extinction Rebellion will continue to organise with, and support, our local communities and each other throughout this time of national and international emergency.