Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Interestingly, the UK flag seems to have been added to the EU/Switzerland lane.
I guess he wants to be in the even slower one?

Probably accurate until the end of the year when we go to the slower lane.

The tweet guy is being mocked but perhaps he is right.  We don't know which Brexit he voted for - perhaps it was the Brexit where the UK would formally leave but replace with EFTA or something similar, as opposed to say the Brexit where Britain tries to turn itself into the ultra-capitalist Singapore of the North Sea or the socialist Brexit where the UK leaves so it can nationalize industries and pour in state aid without being hassled. Or any one of the many other mutually exclusive Brexits.

Thing is, the Brexit on the referendum wasn't any one of these.  It was the pig-in-a-poke Brexit.  At the end of the day, what Britain voted for was the Brexit behind door number 1.  No surprise if it fails to live up to expectations.

We've had three years of debate about it and two elections. I've got no sympathy for the "it's not the Brexit I voted for" line anymore. It was maybe valid until December, just about.

[The Minsky Moment]

Brexit, just like almost everything nowadays, was whites voting against being inconvenienced.

FYP

[The Minsky Moment]

Not being snarky BTW. Or at least not just being snarky.  At its core, Brexit was about privileging identity (as English, British, a member of a "sovereign nation") vs the conveniences and marginal (in the formal sense) economic benefits of the EU system. 

[Grey Fox]

Brexit, just like almost everything nowadays, was whites voting against being inconvenienced.

FYP

 

[Sheilbh]

Not being snarky BTW. Or at least not just being snarky.  At its core, Brexit was about privileging identity (as English, British, a member of a "sovereign nation") vs the conveniences and marginal (in the formal sense) economic benefits of the EU system.

And I think a real question is why - after 3 years of Remainers being correct - there's no sign of Bregret or shift from preferring identity or "sovereign nationhood".

It could be a bit British exceptionalism - that European identity, until the referendum, wasn't a significant feature of our politics - and it may be different in other bits of Europe. Part of it is certainly how catastrophic the remain campaign/remain politics have been since the referendum was called. Alternately it may be that the EU's approach of results-based legitimacy is quite brittle.

I've never thought Brexit was that much of an issue for Europen because we've always been a semi-detached member, I've also never thought it was that big a crisis the issue has been fundamentally an insitutional crisis of how in our Parliamentary democracy, the legislature implements the results of the referendum which they profoundly disagree with. The answer was always likely to be found through elections, eventually - the main question was if the EU would force a crisis first (ie refuse enough extensions after a while).

I think the bigger issues for the EU and Europe as whole are in France and Italy. But the point around how much people value results in their economy and convenience matters there too.

[Josquius]

Plus don't forget the eternal retruthing of history.
Every time the remain side is shown to be correct the leavers just rewrite their head-canon so they actually believed something else which has yet to be proven erroneous.

[Admiral Yi]

One point on which Remainers have been proven wrong (much to my surprise) is the absence of a massive exodus from the City.

[Sheilbh]

One point on which Remainers have been proven wrong (much to my surprise) is the absence of a massive exodus from the City.

I don't think it's that surprising. A huge chunk of the City's business isn't European so there was no reason for that to move unless the entire ecosystem changed - there's no reason for Renminbi trading to shift to, say, Frankfurt or project financing for infrastructure in Africa yet. Most big UK and European banks have other European entities so the loss of passporting doesn't really matter, they shift part of their business to the relevant entity (French for HSBC, Dutch for RBS etc), that primarily affected US banks who put all their eggs in one basket to keep costs down and have had to make some big changes.

But the benefit of the City, which will probably decline over time, is that it's got the ecosystem of all the different parties you need in a financial centre and there's no single European equivalent. So the banks have gone to the Netherlands, Frankfurt and Paris, back office stuff has been outsourced to Europe and the funds have largely gone to Ireland and Luxembourg - the legal work might go to Ireland. I'm not sure about insurance. That dispersed network of hubs is probably lower risk for Europe but none of them are going to immediately replace London. Over time that might change.

I've been slightly surprised at the number of stories about how difficult financial institutions found it to relocate people - I always thought that would be the biggest issue for Frankfurt - which means the headcount hasn't shifted wildly. Most of the banks have moved under 500 people to their new European hubs (excluding local hires). I think it'll grow less and matter less over time, unless the sort-of strategy around the City changes, but that'll be gradual.

There's always been a lot of evidence that the areas that voted Remain - like where City workers live - would be economically less hard-hit than the areas that voted Leave.

[The Larch]

I've never thought Brexit was that much of an issue for Europen because we've always been a semi-detached member, I've also never thought it was that big a crisis the issue has been fundamentally an insitutional crisis of how in our Parliamentary democracy, the legislature implements the results of the referendum which they profoundly disagree with. The answer was always likely to be found through elections, eventually - the main question was if the EU would force a crisis first (ie refuse enough extensions after a while).

I think the bigger issues for the EU and Europe as whole are in France and Italy. But the point around how much people value results in their economy and convenience matters there too.

You know, S, for somebody as smart and well read and travelled as you, from time to time you have a real talent to make extremely bizarre takes like this one. Brexit not a big deal for the EU? France and Italy bigger issues that what has kept the EU in turnmoil for the last 4 years or so?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. Brexit's a semi-detached member leaving the union. It's caused institutional turmoil in the UK but no sort of social unrest or difficulty. I don't think it's going to have a huge long-term impact on the EU.

Italy, a core member of the EU, is likely to have a far-right led government (probably including the, I don't know, even further right ) at the next election. It's also the country that's been least well-served by the Euro, is still bit of the EU which is flashing red in my view and with a new Salvini government I think it's very likely you'll see an Italy-Poland axis rising to challenge the Franco-German axis (which is in a bad way anyway) which presents two quite different motors and visions for Europe, which Salvini's already pitched to the Poles.

In terms of France, it's another core member with genuine social unrest that is impacting politics. Macron's holding onto his liberal third of the electorate which might be enough to get through the first round. But if that starts to fall apart, or Hamon's party or the Republicans have a bit of a surge and they split the "mainstream" vote, I wouldn't be that surprised to see a Le Pen-Melenchon run-off which is a huge challenge for Europe. And I personally sympathise with Macron - I think he's done his side of the deal and Germany's politics have collapsed into insularity so they're not helping deliver a wider reform agenda within Europe.

The British system and Brexit was about an issue getting stuck, the institutions didn't work and couldn't process. France seems to have fundamental social divisions creeping into politics and Italy may soon have a far-right government. By contrast in the UK the far-rigth got 2% of the vote in the election, Brexit killed them and instead 40+% went to the mainstream traditional party of the right who now have a majority (as is the way our system is meant to work - despite the last decade) and will be able to do what they want (as is the way our system works - aside from the last decade). It feels to me like the bigger risks for the EU and the bigger crises are France and Italy.

Edit: I don't think it's kept the EU in turmoil for 4 years - the view from here is that the EU has been fairly united and not spent much time on it (this is a view ostentatiously presented by the EU in fairness so may not be fully true). But to the extent it has it's a temporary situation that is going to resolve. France and Italy seem more intractable, more long-term and more directly linked to the European project.

[Tamas]

Brexit, just like almost everything nowadays, was whites voting against being inconvenienced.

There have only been two non-white Brits who told me about their Brexit votes (I never ask anyone) and they were both leave voters. Also both naturalised immigrants.

[Josquius]

Brexit, just like almost everything nowadays, was whites voting against being inconvenienced.

There have only been two non-white Brits who told me about their Brexit votes (I never ask anyone) and they were both leave voters. Also both naturalised immigrants.

Yeah, there was a lot of double dealing out there, promising Asians that brexit would mean easier immigration for India and Pakistan whilst specifically targeting such groups in the anti immigration rhetoric spread amongst the Whites.

IIRC a majority of minorities still voted remain overall and its in the very white areas that the leave vote is strongest.

[Duque de Bragança]

In terms of France, it's another core member with genuine social unrest that is impacting politics. Macron's holding onto his liberal third of the electorate which might be enough to get through the first round. But if that starts to fall apart, or Hamon's party or the Republicans have a bit of a surge and they split the "mainstream" vote, I wouldn't be that surprised to see a Le Pen-Melenchon run-off which is a huge challenge for Europe. And I personally sympathise with Macron - I think he's done his side of the deal and Germany's politics have collapsed into insularity so they're not helping deliver a wider reform agenda within Europe.

His liberal third of the electorate for Macron that's quite optimistic. He a slightly less of a quarter in the first round. Of those 24-25 points, 5 points came from Bayrou, who previously denounced him as "the man of money powers". The run-off is an illusion with so much abstention and null votes, the highest ever.
No worries about Hamon though, that guy is finished not that he ever started. I'd rather  have LR than LREM (Macron's rump party to be honest). Mélenchon-Le Pen would be fun from a distance in a way , but as Mélenchon has been assiduously courting the islamic and islamist vote, he cannot get the proles' votes back from Le Pen.

[Maladict]

Yeah. Brexit's a semi-detached member leaving the union. It's caused institutional turmoil in the UK but no sort of social unrest or difficulty.

For ordinary people nothing has changed yet, and nothing will change until the end of the year. Social unrest, if any, is still to come.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, there was a lot of double dealing out there, promising Asians that brexit would mean easier immigration for India and Pakistan whilst specifically targeting such groups in the anti immigration rhetoric spread amongst the Whites.

IIRC a majority of minorities still voted remain overall and its in the very white areas that the leave vote is strongest.

About two thirds voted remain and one third voted leave. Really interesting reading the reasons why from focus groups, I think some of the points made by BAME leavers are striking and reasonably fair criticisms.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/minority-ethnic-attitudes-and-the-2016-eu-referendum/

For ordinary people nothing has changed yet, and nothing will change until the end of the year. Social unrest, if any, is still to come.

But the decision's been taken now. We had a referendum that split the country down the middle and either was largely caused by existing divisions or mapped onto them. There's been huge rows for 3 years and now we're going for the hardest Brexit. If that doesn't cause any sort of social unrest, I'm not sure that anything else will. I don't know if that's because people don't care that much, or because even remainers (like me) fundamentally think the referendum's legitimate and should be followed through, or whatever else but it's a bit of a surprise given the experience of the campaign itself that it hasn't caused unrest.