Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Anyways, don't the Greeks kind-of have a point when it comes to the marbles (which really are stunning by the way)?  I mean even if you accept that Elgin did have permission from the Turks to take them, the Turks were foreign rulers of what is now Greece.  The marbles are an important part of greek history, and would be able to display them in their proper historical context at or near the parthenon.

Less of a "You Brits stole the marbles from us", but rather a "thanks for looking after our valuables while we couldn't, but we've got it from here".

I think that the Ottomans were the legal owners of the marbles is pretty certain. They were the successors of the Byzantines (your mileage may vary) who in turn were carriers  of the heritage of the Greeks via Rome.
Greece had never existed up to that point so...
However, whether the official who gave Elgin permission to take the marbles had the right to do so, or indeed whether he even meant the marbles in the first place is very much up for debate.

Not a lawyer here. But it seems legally Britain should be entirely in the clear, especially considering the timescales involved.

The case for the return of the morals should be more of a moral one and an argument on whether they're best kept together in their original place or separated; it is safer that way and more can enjoy them.

That whole article stinks of the sort of thing the Tories manufacture to drum up jingoism.
It just doesn't make sense.

Other countries have politics too.

Something going on in Greece to necessitate banging the drum?
I have zero idea whats going on there.

[alfred russel]

Something going on in Greece to necessitate banging the drum?
I have zero idea whats going on there.

Genetically they are turks and culturally they have an affinity for Russia. what do you expect from them?

[Sheilbh]

Something going on in Greece to necessitate banging the drum?
I have zero idea whats going on there.

I don't know. But wanting the Elgin marbles back has been part of Greek politics for years. They'll raise it now and the Spanish will raise Gibraltar. How hard they push probably depends on domestic politics v being good Europeans as it is unlikely to have the all-in backing that Ireland got

[The Minsky Moment]

Inflation.

Possibly if the shortages are pervasive enough.

[Savonarola]

Maybe its just a Toronto thing. Here they're all Italian and Portuguese immigrants (many i'm related to lol)

I once had to take a "Working at Heights" course in Toronto.  It was a little like "The Breakfast Club"^1., a dozen people from all different walks of life who never would have associated and never will speak to each other again were stuck together for a day.  Everyone in the course who was an immigrant worked in construction, everyone who was a native had an "Art" profession (mostly in the film industry, but one woman worked in a nature center and another ran a "Trees school"^2..)

Most of the people in rail construction I've worked with in Toronto are from Canada; but usually the west (many had a background in the oil industry) or rural Ontario.   A number of them said they wouldn't want their children to work in construction.  I thought that was interesting.

1.)  No, Molly Ringwald didn't give me a hickey.   
2.)  No, I don't know what that means either.

[Barrister]

I joined the federal DOJ in 2006.  This was right around the time the Conservatives first took power after the sponsorship scandal.  They had this great idea that all new hires to the entire federal public service should be brought to Ottawa for an orientation.  So off I flew to Ottawa from Whitehorse.

It was the same experience.  As you can imagine the entire Canadian federal government employs people in a lot of different capacities.  So I met fisheries workers, DND employees are two of the areas I can remember.  None of had anything in common, and were all from different parts of the country.  But since a lot of us were sent there from out of town its always nice to get away for a bit.

It was all rather condescending though.  Certainly there was some high school level stuff about how the government works.  But you could tell it was all conceived from this vague notion that public servants are all corrupt, so there was a lot about not being corrupt in the talks.

Anyways, this was all of course pretty expensive to do, so I believe this was ended around the time of the 2008 financial crises.

[HVC]

A number of them said they wouldn't want their children to work in construction.  I thought that was interesting.

Depending on what type of construction you do its hard body breaking work. The smart ones become foremen. The rest wear out their bodies by the time they're in their mid 50s .

My uncle fell off faulty scaffolding in the late 70s/early 80s and shattered his heels and ankles. The union moved him into the office where he became a safety course teacher and worked his way up into some high up union position.

[Admiral Yi]

Is this the thread with discussion about Irish unification?  Hard to keep track.

I didn't know, and possibly others might not have, that the reason this is becoming an issue now is a referendum on unification was part of the Good Friday Agreement.  The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is required to hold a referendum if "it appears likely a majority in Northern Ireland are in favor." Long cover story in The Economist about unification.

Question for you Shelf: how important is the role of George Mitchell in brokering/chairing the deal seen over there?  I asked because I've always subscribed to the pleasing story that an AMERICAN parachuted in and said magic words to the primitive European clansmen and they immediately broke out in communal song.

This belief was strengthened by how things apparently transpired in former Yugoslavia.  Effete European diplomats and spineless Dutch peacekeepers make a hash of separating drunken murderous Slavs but then Eagleburger shows up and whispers a few words in Miloslavic's ear and the Serbs fall on their knees awestruck.

[garbon]

What's the funny bit?

That this is what you get when you renegotiate your relationship with the EU from the ground up - long settled issues can now be brought up again.

I imagine Spain is going to try and get Gibraltar too.  After all, Johnson caved pretty much when it came to Northern Ireland, so maybe he'll cave over Gibraltar too.

I don't think that particular was long settled. Discussed more and more even before Brexit.

[Sheilbh]

Is this the thread with discussion about Irish unification?  Hard to keep track.

I didn't know, and possibly others might not have, that the reason this is becoming an issue now is a referendum on unification was part of the Good Friday Agreement.  The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is required to hold a referendum if "it appears likely a majority in Northern Ireland are in favor." Long cover story in The Economist about unification.

We are quite some time from it appearing likely though:

(Shades of red are Unionist - remain in the UK with direct rule or devolution, green is unification, orange is other, blue is independence, and grey is don't know).

But a Sinn Fein government in Ireland would be a shift in the cultural attitude/preparation of Dublin towards unification. It could also be challenging given the role of Ireland and the UK in the peace treaty of kind-of, almost neutral states who are there to uphold the peace so the people of Northern Ireland can run their own affairs and determine their own future. That shifts with Sinn Fein in power, if only by perception. It does also present a challenge if they do get the EU to agree to a policy shift from supporting the Good Friday Agreement, to supporting Irish unification as Sinn Fein want.

Separately - has there ever been an example of a political party holding power, democratically in two nations at the same time? Here in Stormont and potentially in Dublin :melllow:

Question for you Shelf: how important is the role of George Mitchell in brokering/chairing the deal seen over there?  I asked because I've always subscribed to the pleasing story that an AMERICAN parachuted in and said magic words to the primitive European clansmen and they immediately broke out in communal song.

He was key - he was an excellent chairman of the peace process. All sides praise him for his endless patience in listening to every sides various grievances and as an honest broker in terms of representing each sides (initially the Ulster Unionists wouldn't sit with Sinn Fein until there was some evidence the IRA really meant their ceasefire). It was probably relevant that he was an outsider too, so could be optimistic - he has a story about everyone in Northern Ireland thanking him for doing the work like cab drivers and people in the airport, but all of them saying "but it won't make any difference anyway".

Also he was very good at focusing on a win-win compromise, which he said was something he learned from his time in the Senate - I wonder if any current American Senators would be useful chairs of peace negotiations?

The peace took a while to work and has had issues and may yet fail, but is a huge achievement. The big issue at the minute is perception in Northern Ireland. Unionists viewed it as a final peace that settled the position of Northern Ireland in the UK, based on the consent of the people in Northern Ireland (which wouldn't happen for a long time given demographics). Nationalists viewed it as a staging post on the ongoing way to a united Ireland. During the Brexit negotiations and I imagine even more if Sinn Fein enter government in Ireland, groups in the Unionist community feel more like they've been led on and actually what they thought of as a peace agreement, is just a temporary settlement before unification. I think there's a question of whether that perceptions grows/festers and whether it leads to a potential resumption of violence among Loyalists.

This belief was strengthened by how things apparently transpired in former Yugoslavia.  Effete European diplomats and spineless Dutch peacekeepers make a hash of separating drunken murderous Slavs but then Eagleburger shows up and whispers a few words in Miloslavic's ear and the Serbs fall on their knees awestruck.

Yeah. I mean the threats helped more in Yugoslavia.

It is striking that both peaces have these co-confessional, power-sharing model that I think are good for ceasefires but not necessarily good for the long term. In Yugoslavia that's a design choice because the intention was that Bosnia would develop a new Bosnian constitution and there are various points that are explicitly meant to be temporary and subject to a later agreement (for example the community's who are represented). But in Bosnia none of the parties are able to agree those points so they don't even try despite the European representatives, for example, helping draft template laws that are ready to go. So explicitly temporary provisions are still in place and likely to stay in place for the foreseeable. And because of the nature of the power-sharing it's largely just a rotating opportunity for graft - you take the leadership for the Bosnian Serb community, say, and you announce loads of construction projects for Republika Srpska and spend the initial money on that - then the leadership rotates and those projects get cancelled, new ones get announced in the Bosniak areas etc etc.

Plus attitudes haven't changed. I remember a friend going to Srebernica (in Srpska - because the ethnic cleansing did work in terms of territory allocation in the peace treaty) on the 20th anniversary. He said almost every house on the entire road (in Srpska) taken by him and other internationals from Sarajevo to the memorial site had a picture of Mladic in the window.

[Sheilbh]

Really good section on Newsnight about the whole "levelling up" thing Johnson goes on about.

Very direct comment from a more Remainy Tory who was previously an advisor for Hammond in the Treasury. She was asked if the Tories were now just ignoring the voice of the business community and replied, "well, who else are the going to vote for?"

[Admiral Yi]

Graph is interesting, as the article mentioned Catholics now outnumber Protestants.  I suppose it's immigrants making up the difference?  A little like Quebec in that way.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

[Sheilbh]

Catholics might outnumber Protestants now but only marginally - the last census still had Protestants and the largest group (though, obviously split across multiple churches).

I doubt it'd be immigration, about 98-99% of the population in Northern Ireland was born in these isles. It's probably the most economically deprived area in them too so it's not got any significant immigration really.

I think the bigger point is that Catholics are less of a block than Protestants. So about 80% of Protestants identify as British only or British and Northern Irish (with about 15% identifying as Northern Irish only). About 55% of Catholics identify as Irish only or Irish and Northern Irish (10% identify as British only and about 25% as Northern Irish only). Additionally there's about 15-20% of the population that aren't religious or don't state their religion on the census - they have figures like the Catholics but in reverse so around 50% identify as British only or British and Northern Irish.

So if you zoom out about half of the country identify as British, about 30% as Irish and about 30% as Northern Irish (but as above you can have multiple identities/identifications). Given the situation and the past I think at this stage I think it's only going to be a minority who really want the constiutional upheaval and potential for violence around unification. And arguably the most interesting thing in recent years has been the growth of the Alliance Party which is now non-denominational, neutral on the union and opposed to the confessional powersharing model (which they argue deepens the sectarian divide because if you want something done you have to operate through one of the sectarian parties). They're basically centrist, liberals I think they've had the first ethnic minority member of the Assembly and the first gay spokesman etc - but in Northern Ireland the sort of centrist, liberal model wanting to do politics as usual isn't the establishment but the exciting new force in politics

So if you look at the results in Northern Ireland in the 2019 election, Unionists (DUP and UUP) won around 45% of the vote, Republicans (SF) won about 20-25%, Nationalists (SDLP) won around 15% and the Alliance Party won 15-20% of the vote and got their first MP (in Sylvia Hermon's old seat).

This may all change after Brexit, alternately the Northern Irish Protocol arguably gives it the best of both worlds and it's kind of hard to begrduge that for Western Europe's only post-conflict society and one of the poorest regions certainly in these isles.

[mongers]

Meanwhile the Daily Mail is trying to 'reverse' the result of the referendum:

https://www.mymail.co.uk/catalogue/reward/promotions/4367

By killing off as many of their readers as possible.

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[Sheilbh]

Post-Irish election coalition talks continue and Sinn Fein have appointed Gerry Adams to their negotiating team. Which brings into question again who really runs Sinn Fein:

Gerry Adams will be Sinn Féin negotiator, leaked brief reveals
Party challenged over IRA links as former leader quietly chosen to help form next government
Rory Carroll Ireland correspondent
@rorycarroll72
Fri 21 Feb 2020 17.26 GMT
Last modified on Fri 21 Feb 2020 17.38 GMT

Sinn Féin has included Gerry Adams on its negotiating team to form the next Irish government, fuelling renewed scrutiny over the party's links with the IRA.

A party briefing note leaked on Friday named Adams as a negotiator, raising questions as to why he was not on the published list. The disclosure came as political opponents piled pressure on Sinn Féin to renounce the IRA in advance of talks to form a coalition government.

On Thursday, Micheál Martin, the Fianna Fáil leader, accused the party of having supported a vicious sectarian murder campaign during the Troubles, and of still remaining under the sway of shadowy figures.

The Garda commissioner, Drew Harris, was drawn into the row on Friday when he confirmed that the Irish police agreed with a Police Service of Northern Ireland assessment that the Provisional IRA's army council oversaw Sinn Féin and the remnants of the IRA.

The taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, challenged the Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald, to respond. "Why doesn't McDonald disband the army council [the IRA's decision-making body] and the PIRA, or if she cannot, repudiate them and sever all links and do so publicly and unequivocally?" he tweeted.

The controversies put the republican party on the defensive two weeks after it won the popular vote in Ireland's general election.

No party has an overall majority in the hung parliament, but Sinn Féin scored a symbolic victory on Thursday when McDonald won the most votes among the party leaders nominated for taoiseach. Varadkar resigned as head of government but will serve as caretaker leader until a new government is formed.

Sinn Féin's election breakthrough came on its promise to build affordable housing, freeze rents and fix healthcare. However, Fianna Fáil and Varadkar's ruling Fine Gael party have ruled out forming a government with Sinn Féin, citing policy differences and its IRA links.

Last week the party named a negotiating team of four TDs (MPs), with no mention of Adams, who stepped down as leader in 2018 and as a TD this month.

The leaked briefing paper named four other unelected officials as negotiators, including Martin Lynch, who was jailed in the 1980s for possessing a rocket launcher and other arms.

In a blogpost titled "The myth of shadowy figures", Adams said the party had made no secret of its backroom advisers and strategists.

"Many have had long and fruitful relationships with senior Irish and British government ministers and officials as we have charted a course from conflict, through a peace process, to an end to conflict and peace," he wrote.