Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Sinn Fein supporters belting out "Come Out Ye Black And Tans" at the counts as they're doing very well (But they've moved past all that and are just a party of the European left now...)

Looks like they'll get all 42 candidates elected, they may not have been ambitious enough in running multiple candidates.

Edit: If anything it looks like the exit poll underestimated the Sinn Fein vote. Shy shinners?

Edit: Sinn Fein top of the first preferences in both Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin's constituencies. Which is embarrassing for them both.

[Cerr]

Sinn Féin didn't put forward enough candidates. They weren't expecting the campaign to go as well as it did for them.
Fine Gael ran too many candidates from the looks of it.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil both ruled out going into coalition with Sinn Féin previously but will see if that changes now.
Another option would be FF and FG to go into government together, both very similar parties.
It would likely weaken the two parties in the long run by strengthening SF though.

The FF-FG stranglehold on Irish Politics is weakening, just a pity it's SF gaining from it.

[Sheilbh]

Leo Varadkar didn't top the poll in his constituency and didn't even get enough preferences to win the second round. I'm fairly sure there's never been anything like this

[Cerr]

Yeah I think that's a first.
The Fine Gael vote share actually went up 1.5% there but the Sinn Féin vote went up 14.2%.

[Josquius]

So what happened to cause this then?

[Sheilbh]

One interesting point by Patrick Maguire. In December, Sinn Fein did very badly in the election in the North where they're part of a political duopoly. Three months later they do very well in the South as the insurgent against an entrenched political duopoly.

[Sheilbh]

On the fourth count and Varadkar still not won his seat 

If Sinn Fein weren't the replacement for FF and FG, this would be amazing.

[Sheilbh]

Sinn Fein came first - ahead of any Healy-Rae - in Kerry!

Though I think Michael Healy-Rae was first to get elected, so there's still some order in the world.

[Sheilbh]

Simon Coveney elected on the eighth count and Micheal Martin on the sixth

[Cerr]

The Healy-Raes

Decent summary of what happened:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/09/irish-voters-have-made-sinn-fein-mainstream-election

Sinn Féin are currently trying to form a government without FG or FF but the numbers don't look feasible.

24 seats left to be filled.

[Josquius]

In more related news.... Seems hard Brexit is all but official as the walls go up for goods from next year.
What this means for Ireland and the movement of people is anyone's guess. Fingers crossed for a Swiss arrangement?

[Sheilbh]

In more related news.... Seems hard Brexit is all but official as the walls go up for goods from next year.
What this means for Ireland and the movement of people is anyone's guess. Fingers crossed for a Swiss arrangement?

Yeah I think they want friction and divergence. I don't think this is just a negotiating positions. The UK government's saying they want either a FTA ("Canada terms") or no deal ("Australia terms").

I think it means no free movement and the Irish protocol kicks in.

And, in another sign of how little Johnson really cares about Northern Ireland he's fired Julian Smith as Northern Irish Secretary who's probably the first one since 2010 who had the respect of Dublin and Belfast, and helped restore Stormont.

[Sheilbh]

Good piece on the Irish election:

5 takeaways from the Irish election
Voters have delivered a political earthquake that upended decades of 2-party politics.
By Naomi O'Leary   
2/9/20, 6:07 PM CET
Updated 2/12/20, 5:05 AM CET

DUBLIN — A seismic election in Ireland has reshaped the traditional electoral landscape, with the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin surging into first place ahead of the traditionally dominant Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for the first time in the history of the republic.

"The two-party system in this country is now broken, it has been sent to the history books," said Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald as she arrived at a Dublin count center.

Counting is still underway and with the race so close, the ultimate seat breakdown may not be known for days. But with almost all first-preference votes tallied, Sinn Féin had won the popular vote with 24.1 percent ahead of Fianna Fáil on 22.2 percent and Fine Gael on 22.1 percent. No party will have enough seats to easily form a government, but the fallout is already becoming apparent.

Here are the five key takeaways from Ireland's earthquake election.
1. Sinn Féin surge
The left-wing nationalist Sinn Féin is likely to form part of the next government for the first time.

The party has steadily increased its votes in every general election since 2007 by broadening its profile from a single-issue party in favor of the unification of Ireland into an advocate of a more left-wing alternative to the traditionally dominant Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parties.

As memories recede of the party's past association with the militant struggle against British rule in Northern Ireland, support has surged among the young: Exit polls indicate it leads among all sectors of the electorate under 65.

The party, led by popular new leader Mary Lou McDonald, rode a wave of anger over a crippling housing crisis that prevented young people starting families; it promised rent freezes and "the biggest public housing building programme in history of the state."

"We have a cohort of younger voters who vote on issues rather than parties ... They have obviously identified Sinn Féin's message on that issue as something to rally behind," said Jonathan Evershed, a researcher at University College Cork and Queen's University Belfast.

2. Leo Varadkar is not a vote-winner
Incumbent Prime Minister Leo Varadkar may have a reputation abroad as a modern and polished statesman, but his domestic image differs from this substantially.

Unusually for an Irish politician, the prime minister is socially awkward, and has not emerged as the ruthless vote-winner his party hoped he would be when they chose him to replace Enda Kenny in 2017.

Though Fine Gael spearheaded the landmark liberal reforms of legalizing gay marriage in 2015 and abortion in 2018, it is primarily defined by its pro-business, budget-balancing economic policies.

"While the rest of the world may see an impressive, gay, Irish-Indian Taoiseach [prime minister], in Ireland people ... primarily see him as the leader of Fine Gael who has really taken a small-c conservative line," said Maura Adshead, a political scientist at the University of Limerick.

Discussions have already started in party circles of a challenge to Varadkar's leadership, with the name of Foreign Minister Simon Coveney — the popular runner-up in the 2017 leadership election — doing the rounds.

3. Coalition-building won't be easy
Sinn Féin leader McDonald said she has already reached out to leaders of small left-wing parties to explore coalition options.

"My first priority is to establish whether we can form a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael," McDonald said. But the arithmetic may be difficult, and Sinn Féin is open to teaming up with one of them to enter government for the first time.

During the campaign, Fianna Fáil ruled out a coalition with Sinn Féin on principle. But this proved unpopular with voters. As the extent of its support emerged, Fianna Fáil appeared to soften its tone.

"There were genuine concerns there, but everybody is cognizant that the people have spoken" said Fianna Fáil lawmaker Marc MacSharry, while simultaneously denying the party had changed its position. The party has already begun feeling out options to increase its power in parliament, courting a series of independent lawmakers.

Fine Gael has said it is willing to do a deal with Fianna Fáil, but not Sinn Féin; though some party members think a period in opposition would be best for the party.

With the race so close, it all depends on battles for the final seats in a range of constituencies that are expected to go down to the wire. The one party that is almost certain to be included in a coalition however is the Green Party, which was set to increase its seats from two to more than 10.

If no government can be formed, Ireland faces another election.

4. Brexit was a nonissue
Varadkar hoped to benefit from widespread public approval of his defense of Ireland's interests in the Brexit negotiations, and put the issue front and center in the campaign.

But it fell flat with voters: Only 1 percent said it was important to them in deciding how to vote.

"Although Brexit was negotiated by his team, a large part of that negotiation is by the Irish state, the civil servants," said political scientist Adshead.

"Given the fact that there was cross-party support, it's quite hard for him to take personal credit for what was a national consensus."

The most important issues for voters were health and housing, reflecting unhappiness with strained public services that have struggled to keep up with a growing population and an economy developing at the fastest rate in the European Union.

5. Nativist politics flop
There was a well-organized attempt during the campaign to establish anti-immigration, nativist politics in Ireland, which has so far not experienced the radical right surge seen around the world.

However, just 1 percent of voters felt immigration was an important factor in their vote, according to the exit poll.

Instead, the biggest gains in support were enjoyed by Sinn Féin and the Green Party, both of which shun anti-immigration politics and speak in favor of the rights of refugees.

Two other thoughts. It could benefit FF or FG to not go into coalition with Sinn Fein. This has been a cordon sanitaire in Irish politics and they are unpopular with a chunk of voters. Not working with them could help that party.

Also Mary Lou MacDonald in her interview on Newsnight says she wants the EU to support Irish unification just like they supported German unification and support Cypriot unification. Given everything it doesn't seem unlikely that this all could prompt a lot of fears in the unionist community.

Good piece - in my opinion - on Sinn Fein and I know I'm old fashioned but the number of murders and cover-ups by people linked to them (since the Good Friday Agreement - ignoring the 1500+ killed during the Troubles) is an issue I'm struggling to get over:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/newton-emerson-republic-needs-to-steer-sinn-f%C3%A9in-endlessly-towards-politics-1.4167340#.XkEzq7vTFxo.twitter

[crazy canuck]

If an outbreak happened in Canada it would be immediately reported to the appropriate health authorities around the world.

[dps]

Think you got the wrong thread there, pilgrim.