Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[PJL]

I think the Brexit Party won't field that many candidates. Farage is still trying to do a deal with Johnson, which surprises me. It doesn't sound like someone who is confident about their chances in the election. Thing is, I think if Brexit only field 20-30 candidates, I think it will help Labour more than the Conservatives, as many past Labour voters will never vote Tory (especially in the North) but could vote Brexit as a protest, as a vote for Farage.

[Valmy]

Yeah the Tories' support is crashing...but not as fast as Labour's so they might lose lots of votes but still win a huge number of seats.

[Sheilbh]

Haven't they said they're fielding 600 candidates?

Incidentally in terms of anti-semitism scandals the Brexit Party have come in with a late, outstanding entry. Brexit Party candidate for Brighton Kemptown: "It is entirely true that I performed in the art-house heavy metal band Stuka Squadron, which involved a complex back-story in which we were vampires who were also luftwaffe pilots."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/news/107870/excl-brexit-party-urged-drop-election-candidate-over

[Sheilbh]

Yeah the Tories' support is crashing...but not as fast as Labour's so they might lose lots of votes but still win a huge number of seats.

Although - the Tories are worse than they were at this stage in 2017 (and Farage sat that one out), Labour are about the same as they were at this stage in 2017.

[The Brain]

Haven't they said they're fielding 600 candidates?

Incidentally in terms of anti-semitism scandals the Brexit Party have come in with a late, outstanding entry. Brexit Party candidate for Brighton Kemptown: "It is entirely true that I performed in the art-house heavy metal band Stuka Squadron, which involved a complex back-story in which we were vampires who were also luftwaffe pilots."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/news/107870/excl-brexit-party-urged-drop-election-candidate-over

JUST TAKE MY VOTE

[Josquius]

Yeah the Tories' support is crashing...but not as fast as Labour's so they might lose lots of votes but still win a huge number of seats.

It is worrying.
However I have read some analysis which have it not quite so bad as it looks. Labour will lose some poor seats to the Tories but the Tories will lose almost as many of their educated seats to the lib dems. FPTP may actually work in the left's favour for once.

I think the Brexit Party won't field that many candidates. Farage is still trying to do a deal with Johnson, which surprises me. It doesn't sound like someone who is confident about their chances in the election. Thing is, I think if Brexit only field 20-30 candidates, I think it will help Labour more than the Conservatives, as many past Labour voters will never vote Tory (especially in the North) but could vote Brexit as a protest, as a vote for Farage.

There's been a big split in the Brexit party with some wanting to stand aside for the Tories and others wanting to fight for every seat.
Farage's group, who want to challenge the Tories everywhere, seem to have won out in all but a handful of extreme ERGer seats. They're in full the only real brexit is no deal mode.
I increasingly suspect Farage doesn't actually want Brexit to happen, he's hoping it ends so he can keep his lucrative career as a professional moaner for the hard right going.

Haven't they said they're fielding 600 candidates?

Incidentally in terms of anti-semitism scandals the Brexit Party have come in with a late, outstanding entry. Brexit Party candidate for Brighton Kemptown: "It is entirely true that I performed in the art-house heavy metal band Stuka Squadron, which involved a complex back-story in which we were vampires who were also luftwaffe pilots."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/news/107870/excl-brexit-party-urged-drop-election-candidate-over

This is the most Brighton thing ever
Even their racists are tragically hip.

[Tonitrus]

Looking at those polls, one might well think that even if a second referendum managed to come about, pro-Brexit might actually do even better than in 2016.

On a national level the poll is:
Tories - 36%
Labour - 22%
Lib Dems - 19%
SNP - 5%
Plaid - 1%
Brexit - 12%
Green - 6%

So Tories and Brexit = 48%. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and Greens = 52%

I made that weak-ass assessment mostly from your regional polls. 

Outside of London/Scotland, Brexit-leaning parties look pretty strong.  And Labour isn't fully anti-Brexit.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Convenient website with Johnson's most important and egregious lies listed :

https://boris-johnson-lies.com/

[Sheilbh]

Polls starting to look like 2017 - classic FPTP two party squeeze:
http://britainelects.com/

Depressing given the leadership of both parties

[Josquius]

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-antisemitism-political-parties

Yet still Labour is being branded as the anti semitic one.

It's a problem in labour precisely because they're meant to have higher standards about racism than the avowedly racist tories.

[Josquius]

Brexit party u turn and decide not to run against the Tories.

Well.

That's the country screwed.

Apparently the Tories bought farage with an offer of a peerage.  Edit- they offered but he rejected it and is telling everyone about it.

[Valmy]

Not running against the Tories? Aren't the Tories running everywhere? Is the Brexit Party just not going to run in this election?

[Josquius]

Not running against the Tories? Aren't the Tories running everywhere? Is the Brexit Party just not going to run in this election?

Tory incumbents I mean.

[Sheilbh]

Which, at best, gets the Tories back to their minority position. This doesn't help them win any seats.

[Josquius]

Which, at best, gets the Tories back to their minority position. This doesn't help them win any seats.

Some of those seats were looking very shaky and likely to go lib dem however.
The prediction that seemed most reasonable to me was the Tories gain some new seats but they're largely offset by losses in educated remain leaning seats.