Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Interesting why is there such a large Punjabi and Sikh population compared to Hindi and Urdu speakers?

In the UK there's about 450,000 British Bengalis and then about 1.2 million of Pakistani descent and 1.5 million of Indian descent (about 800,000 Hindus and 420,000 Sikhs). Weirdly though we've only ever had two Sikh MPs (both elected in 2017), they've been a really under-represented community for some reason.

Some other details of WhatsApp messages targeting British Hindus:
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-whatsapp-messages-urge-british-hindus-to-vote-against-labour-11856692

General election: WhatsApp messages urge British Hindus to vote against Labour
Sky News has seen more than 20 messages shared on WhatsApp - including divisive accusations in a local Tory group.
Rowland Manthorpe
Technology correspondent @rowlsmanthorpe
Thursday 7 November 2019 21:22, UK

Messages urging British Hindus to vote against Labour in the general election are being circulated on WhatsApp, raising concerns about the chat app's role in spreading divisive political content.

Sky News has seen more than 20 separate messages shared on WhatsApp using the app's "forward" function.

One begins by saying: "Pass this to every TRUE Indian," before going on to claim that "there are now no excuses left for any Indian to still be with the Labour Party".

Another accuses Labour of being "anti-India and anti-Hindu", calling on "all India sympathisers" to "defeat Labour candidates from as many seats as possible".

A third suggests talking points to "confront" Labour candidates with on the doorstep, including asking why, in Pakistan, "Hindu minor girls are, on a daily basis, being abducted and forcibly converted to Islam and married to Muslims?"

Labour candidates warned that the messages were stoking division and risked inciting violence.

"Lots of people when they receive a WhatsApp message, they see that as the truth," said Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi.

"This is becoming increasingly prevalent and that is extremely worrying."

It is not known where the messages originated or how far they have spread, but Sky News has seen them posted inside a local Conservative Association group on WhatsApp.

On Sunday, 27 October, Sushil Dokwal, a member of Brent North Conservatives who stood as a councillor in 2018, posted a message into the party's local WhatsApp group saying "Sadiq and Corbin [sic] are against Jews, Hindus and following hidden agenda of jihadis."

Asked about the message over WhatsApp, Mr Dokwal said: "This was posted to me and I posted to my colleague to know what is happening. If true then study it and may be to learn from it."

A Conservative spokesperson told Sky News: "This matter is under investigation by the party."

Many of the messages refer to Kashmir, the Indian-administered region stripped of autonomy by India's Hindu Nationalist government, an order known as Article 370.

One accuses Labour of having "blindly supported Pakistan's propaganda against the issue of Article 370 in Kashmir which is India's internal matter".

Another says Labour is "a mouth piece for Pakistan".

A second Labour candidate, who did not want to be named, told Sky News the tension over this issue had escalated recently.

"What's different now is widespread WhatsApping of messages and use of the Kashmir issue as a wedge issue," he said.

Last month, Labour's conference unanimously passed a motion claiming a "major humanitarian crisis" was taking place in Kashmir and calling for humanitarian observers to enter the region.

Immediately after that motion, messages began circulating on WhatsApp saying: "TODAY IS A BLACK DAY for all Indians & British Indians," adding "there can be no compromise on this matter".

Mr Dhesi told Sky News the motion was not official party policy and that the party leadership was looking into it.

"I appreciate the wording of the emergency motion on Kashmir has caused some division within the party and community, which many of us have discussed," he said.

"Unlike what some people may try to portray, the Labour Party is not anti-India, anti-Pakistan, or anti anyone else. We merely stand up for and have always stood up for the human rights of all."

The messages expose the increasing influence of Hindu nationalism on British politics, where it often finds common cause with the far right.

One video shared widely on WhatsApp - including by Mr Dokwal in his conservative association group - shows political commentator Katie Hopkins in the midst of a pro-Pakistan demonstration, where she claims to be being attacked and harassed by Muslim demonstrators.

Rashmi Mishra, an activist who works with a pro-India activist group called Reach India, said she had shared the video many times, without hesitation.

"We are trying to see that India is well represented in this country, because too many gaps can be seen in the policy of the Labour Party.

"I was a Labour supporter, and I have been voting for them - my kids would kill me if I said I didn't vote for them.

"But they have been voting and organising meetings against India, against Kashmir.

"You are not supposed to interfere in Indian matters and the narrative of India and Kashmir has been changed, because it is filled by people of Pakistan origin."

Asked about Ms Hopkins' video, Ms Mishra told Sky News: "That was the first information that came [from the demonstration] and I was like, forward, forward, forward.

"She's controversial, but many of us admire her for what she did that day."

During May's Indian election, WhatsApp was used as a vehicle for misinformation and propaganda, with polarising political news and rumours spreading rapidly thanks to forwarding to groups.

The Facebook-owned app responded by limiting how often messages can be forwarded - to only five groups instead of 20. It later extended this restriction worldwide.

A WhatApp spokesperson told Sky News:
"WhatsApp is absolutely committed to helping to tackle the problem of viral misinformation... we will continue to prioritise the development of new ways to help to address this issue in the future."

The news of the messages come after reports that supporters of India's governing nationalist party will be actively campaigning for the Conservative Party in 48 marginal seats at this election.

Mr Dhesi told Sky News: "There has been a lot of talk in recent years about foreign external interference in elections and surely this is just another prime example of it."

Under the Radar is a Sky News project to investigate online political activity throughout the election, from targeted ads to disinformation

[Josquius]

I've read the large number of Muslims in the UK is largely down to ye olde racism back in the 50s and 60s that  led to recruitment efforts for workers  being heavily focused on Muslims from the Indian subcontinent.
There was this idea that their religion being Christianesque rather than the alieness of Hinduism meant they were generally better behaved, more willing to follow orders, and overall more capable of fitting into a civilised society.
Quite funny to compare it to modern racism.
I haven't heard the same about Sikhs but it may apply. With the Sikhs you've also their heavy historic martial race associations which again could have led to them being seen as good soldiers and so workers.
The Punjab in particular.... I think it was due to partition leaving the place so messed up and a lot of people looking for a new path in life since their ancestral village was no longer open to them. Later a lot of it became Pubjabis come because there's a lot of other Pubjabis  though i would be curious to read more about the details of early recruitment efforts and how it all happened on the ground.


Anyway. Disturbing stuff there. Some of it just makes no sense. I have to wonder who is behind it.

[Valmy]

Ah it is because Labour is soft on Muslims? Huh.

[Sheilbh]

Ah it is because Labour is soft on Muslims? Huh.

Yeah, especially at the minute with Kashmir. Also the anti-Sikh stuff by Hindu nationalists, is I imagine because Labour MPs with large Sikh communities in their constitutency have been campaiging for the UK government to reveal the role of the SAS in storming the Golden Temple.

The Tories have historically done well with British Indian voters (compared to most other ethnic minorities). Some of that has been based on Islamophobic attacks - like Zac Goldsmith's campaign against Sadiq Khan. I think in 2017 the Tories got about 40% of the British Indian vote, while the British Bengali or Pakistani are two of the safest constituencies for Labour.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe he thinks there's a live to be had outside of politics?

Sure. But when the Change MPs left and especially after Luciana Berger talked about the anti-semitism she'd faced and the lack of care or compassion by the leadership there was talk of tens if not more of Labour MPs also leaving. Watson reportedly spent hours on the phone, convincing them to stay. The next day he did the media round saying how much the bullying of Berger shamed the party and set up a moderate/social democratic caucus within Labour to help keep those other MPs in the party.

At that point, maybe a mass defection could have changed things more than just a few Labour MPs. Watson played a big role in stopping that and "saving" the party, but he's now standing down and leaving it to the Corbyn wing. I like Jess Philips as much as the next man but she's not going to be near the front-bench for a very long time.

And you're right - I remember watching the last election in a lock-in with a lot of very strong Corbyn supporters who'd break into a "salt the slug" chant every time Tom Watson came on screen. I can imainge politics has been very unpleasant for him the last few years and he's recently lost a huge amount of weight for his health - so I get wanting a life after it. But I do wonder if he played a central role in saving a party that no longer deserved saving. It's part of the reason we now have the Jewish Chronicle asking non-Jews to vote for anyone but Labour and Labour MPs who've said "enough is enough" (the "thoughts and prayers" of British politics) will just campaign as normal to put a man they think is unfit for office into No 10

Oh and Corbyn's going to lead labour to an historic defeat?

My guess is Labour will lose a few seats maybe tens of seats, but so will the Tories and Labour have more potential coalition or confidence and supply partners.

[Josquius]

Yeah, the Tom Watson hate in labour is just ridiculous.

I can't find it again but I read an interesting summary of labours anti semitism the other day. The main reason it has blown up into such an issue is because labour has pretty lengthy and fair processes in place for dealing with misbehaviour. Not really suited for the kneejerk insta ban at the slightest suggestion of rule breaking that people expect. And of course the papers will use anything to attack labour.

[garbon]

Yeah, the Tom Watson hate in labour is just ridiculous.

I can't find it again but I read an interesting summary of labours anti semitism the other day. The main reason it has blown up into such an issue is because labour has pretty lengthy and fair processes in place for dealing with misbehaviour. Not really suited for the kneejerk insta ban at the slightest suggestion of rule breaking that people expect. And of course the papers will use anything to attack labour.

I mean that's certainly a biased take on why it blew up.

[Josquius]

Saying that Labours system for investigating misbehavior is slow and not really suited to the modern day of fast media is biased?

[Sheilbh]

I think so. I think at this point Labour is possibly institutionally anti-semitic.

On which note one Labour candidate pulled out after it emerged as a councillor he'd called a fellow councillor who was Jewish "Shylock". His defence was that he didn't know Shylock was Jewish, he added: "if the education system had been better under Margaret Thatcher, I might have known." On day three of the campaign Labour have six candidates who've been removed or resigned over anti-semitism and there are a couple who've made that are only just beginning to circulate.

The Tory candidate who said that women should keep their knickers on if they want to avoid rape has also stepped down.

Meanwhile - and my defence is this looks a lot like the start of the 2017 election - YouGov have done a series of regional polls that are as bad for Labour as could be:

[PJL]

Unless Labour wins in the Midlands (East & West) they certainly won't form a majority government. If they're competitive in  those regions (ie within about 5% of the Tories) they may be able to form a minority government though.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think there's a way Labour can form a majority government again (unles 97 happens) if they don't claw back something in Scotland.

Flipside is at the moment the Tories need to win a majority (epsecially as the DUP won't back them now). Labour can probably form a government with 250-60.

[PJL]

Here's a quick guide to seat distribution from polls conducted during the last week (one poll per BPC member) with latest Scottish poll and put through Electoral Calculas. Still a climb for Labour but they're less behind than they were in the last election.

Code Select Expand


Party Vote Gains Losses Change Pred Seats
CON 38.30% 60 15 45 363
LAB 27.90% 0 70 -70 192
LIB 15.00% 11 0 11 23
Brexit 10.10% 0 0 0 0
Green 3.10% 0 0 0 1
SNP 3.40% 16 1 15 50
PlaidC 0.70% 0 1 -1 3
UKIP 1.00% 0 0 0 0
Other 0.50% 0 0 0 0
N.Ire 0 0 0 18



[Tonitrus]

Looking at those polls, one might well think that even if a second referendum managed to come about, pro-Brexit might actually do even better than in 2016.

[Josquius]

People voting Green:

The Greens are generally good. Some stupidity but generally OK. I wish I could vote for them.
But...come on.

[Sheilbh]

Looking at those polls, one might well think that even if a second referendum managed to come about, pro-Brexit might actually do even better than in 2016.

On a national level the poll is:
Tories - 36%
Labour - 22%
Lib Dems - 19%
SNP - 5%
Plaid - 1%
Brexit - 12%
Green - 6%

So Tories and Brexit = 48%. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and Greens = 52%