Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

So Labour is going to pretend that this election is not about Brexit but about some other projects that Jeremy Corbyn prefers to talk about? Makes sense, considering the current PM got his office thanks to Brexit, the previous two PMs resigned over Brexit and this GE is only called because parliament cannot settle Brexit.

[Zanza]

Yeah, Corbyn folding means nothing happens but campaigning until election day, after which we end up with another hung Parliament.

The date having been 13th of December already, everyone declares that nothing can be decided until Christmas, so they go home. Reconvening I guess the second week of January, Johnson will form a majority government of 2, 15 of which are moderate Torys never to support any of Cummings' ideas. There will be 2 runs at the WA between the return and the 25th of Jan, at which point a further expansion will be asked for.

That sounds terrible, but also fairly realistic.

[Tamas]

So Labour is going to pretend that this election is not about Brexit but about some other projects that Jeremy Corbyn prefers to talk about? Makes sense, considering the current PM got his office thanks to Brexit, the previous two PMs resigned over Brexit and this GE is only called because parliament cannot settle Brexit.

That has been Corbyn's consistent strategy since forever. I think he honestly doesn't care about Brexit one way or the other. He has internal party debates and power struggles to win, can't be bogged down by minutiae.

[Barrister]

So Labour is going to pretend that this election is not about Brexit but about some other projects that Jeremy Corbyn prefers to talk about? Makes sense, considering the current PM got his office thanks to Brexit, the previous two PMs resigned over Brexit and this GE is only called because parliament cannot settle Brexit.

That has been Corbyn's consistent strategy since forever. I think he honestly doesn't care about Brexit one way or the other. He has internal party debates and power struggles to win, can't be bogged down by minutiae.

No, I think he's actually in favour of Brexit, but knows many/most in his party are not.

[Josquius]

Corbyns voting record on Europe shows a long history of taking the day off whenever it's discussed.

[Richard Hakluyt]

...and Johnson is a remainer of course; but in his case personal ambition trumps any residual principles he holds.

[Zanza]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/

The UK's leading election expert Sir John Curtice told LBC he expects parties other than the two major ones to have a record number of MPs in the upcoming General Election.

The UK is expected to go to the polls on 12th December after Jeremy Corbyn told Labour MPs to back Boris Johnson's proposal for an early General Election.

Sir John is the man who predicted Brexit and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017.

And speaking to Shelagh Fogarty, he gave a surprising prediction of what we can expect.

He said: "I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this parliament.

"The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.

"We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties.

"That matters for two reasons. The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority if you're taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.

"Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election. It's an election that Boris Johnson has to win. If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere.

"The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way.

"Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit, but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority.

Oh my, if this happens, the quagmire will just continue. 

[Josquius]

A lib/lab/Green coalition is my perfect outcome.

Read a bit today though about the timing being excellent for the tories. Right as students are in the middle of going home for Xmas 😔

[Tamas]

It is funny that in 2019 votes in a national parliament might still be decided by the volume of yelling.

[Tamas]

12th of December election it is.


Can anyone explained why? Johnson says this two-weeks old Parliament with a Queen's Speech accepted days ago "has run its course" and this will help "sorting Brexit out" but he also wants to bring back the WA before the 12th of December.

[Valmy]

It is funny that in 2019 votes in a national parliament might still be decided by the volume of yelling.

The vast majority of votes in the US Congress is decided in pretty much the same way. An actual recording of the votes only takes place if the Congress thinks there is significant opposition to a bill.

[Tamas]

So, already, first Labour guy in Parliament asked about the election: education! NHS! free medicines! transformative changes! big opportunity! Reporter: Brexit? Well yeah that needs sorting too.

[Josquius]

It's the smart thing to do for labour.
Show brexit to be the unnecessary distraction that it is.

[The Brain]

So the UK completely wasted the time they got with the previous extension? Fuck me sideways what a shocker.

[Sheilbh]

So Labour is going to pretend that this election is not about Brexit but about some other projects that Jeremy Corbyn prefers to talk about? Makes sense, considering the current PM got his office thanks to Brexit, the previous two PMs resigned over Brexit and this GE is only called because parliament cannot settle Brexit.

That has been Corbyn's consistent strategy since forever. I think he honestly doesn't care about Brexit one way or the other. He has internal party debates and power struggles to win, can't be bogged down by minutiae.

No, I think he's actually in favour of Brexit, but knows many/most in his party are not.

Yeah he's a leaver.

But also he hates being Leader of the Opposition, except during campaigns. Because what he loves is campaigning and going to speak to rallies and to Labour activists about austerity etc. I think he'd hate another EU referendum of having to campaign (tepidly) for something he doesn't really believe.

So, already, first Labour guy in Parliament asked about the election: education! NHS! free medicines! transformative changes! big opportunity! Reporter: Brexit? Well yeah that needs sorting too.

I think it's probably the right approach. Hammer the Tories on their record in government and the (inevitable) NHS winter crisis, plus the risk of a Tory Brexit: chlorinated chickens and US drug companies bankrupting the NHS. It may not work but if I were in Labour HQ I'd very much want to be running a: look at how they've messed up the country, can we trust them with the future? style campaign.

Let the Lib Dems and Tories fight for the #FBPE and #leavemeansleave lot.

Also I think there is a crucial difference with this election, even if we get a hung Parliament. Last election we had:
Tories - We need a majority to strengthen our negotiating hand for a deal.
Labour - We need to stop the Tories from doing whatever they want + soft Brexit.
Lib Dems - Second referendum pls.

Now we have:
Tories - Support us and we'll pass this deal.
Labour - Soft Brexit + second referendum.
Lib Dems - Revoke and Remain.

The last election was meant to be a Brexit election but the messaging got confused especially by the Tories (there were lots of mistake by May and her team) and the parties didn't differentiate much. This time the parties have clear, different positions.

That is a horrible graph.

But yes, the age thing is there. It explains how former strongly labour seats like Darlington are wavering: all the remotely driven and intelligent young people have lefteavknf behind their uncaring, unvoting former class mates, and the old.

A problem is however that by their very nature the young tend to cluster whilst the old want to spread out and get far from humanity. This could give us a few massive labour wins whilst the Tories win more modestly but across more seats.

What's interesting about their report is this isn't the case. Basically the poorest seats and the richest seats are getting younger. The seats that are ageing most are the middle.

Plus people are diverging, not just the young are clustering but the old too, so "In 2001 15 areas had an average age 10% higher than average, and 17 10% lower. By 2018 those figures surged to 33 and 39, respectively":


The impact on local politics for this will be huge, given local government looks after housing and social care. One is going to be a huge priority in 33 areas and the other in the 39 and may lead to different policy choice/preferences.