Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Bercow, Speaker of the House, will resign by the end of October (if there's an election his tenure will end before that).

No more "AAAWDE', AAAAWDE'!!!!" 

[Richard Hakluyt]

The normal rule is that he will be replaced by an MP from the opposition (since he was a tory back in the day). We can expect the Johnson crew to break this unwritten rule too.

[Valmy]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Our administration thinks it is good for the United States, I guess it means we can bully the UK around now.

Uhm, haven't we been able to do that pretty much since 1956 anyway?

Not directly...at least not in the arena of trade.

[Tamas]

Bercow best of: https://youtu.be/EY7EIZl4raY

[Tamas]

Here is my roughly 85th example of a baffling ignorance by seemingly the whole British press on the existence of an actual EU with real people and governments out there.

The Guardian outlined how a Northern Ireland-only backstop might be the solution Johnson uses at the last moment. That's fine, I think this is indeed possible, would make a lot of sense now that the DUP's value is greatly diminished due to the split and chaotic Commons.

However, the scenario they outline is:

So is it possible that Johnson comes back from Brussels on 17 October with no deal, and, faced with the law which will require him to seek an extension, reverts to the original Northern Ireland only backstop in a very last die-in-a-ditch moment?

I mean, surely this is not how this could take place? The only way this could work if he comes back on the 17th WITH this modified deal as a proposal. What they outline would mean Britain decides how to change the Withdrawal Agreement, and the EU just quickly accepting it literally days before the deadline.  How would that even work if there was no agreement on it on the EU summit of the 17th?!

[Oexmelin]

The normal rule is that he will be replaced by an MP from the opposition (since he was a tory back in the day). We can expect the Johnson crew to break this unwritten rule too.

We don't make enough of just how frightening this is. No political regime can sustain itself exclusively on written rules.

[Agelastus]

The normal rule is that he will be replaced by an MP from the opposition (since he was a tory back in the day). We can expect the Johnson crew to break this unwritten rule too.

Since the speakership passes on by election (hence how Labour were able to vote Bercow in despite the opposition of most Tory MPs) I actually don't think this is very likely - barring a general election returning a massive Tory majority the votes are simply not there.

However, given the way the unwritten rules were breached 10 years ago I can easily see the next Speaker being the Labour candidate the Labour party (or at the least its leadership) do not want.

[Tonitrus]

A more interesting, and likely, use of the queen could be if Johnson decides to ignore the law and refuses to do something to go the EU and request an extension or cancellation.

If the law is given royal ascent, then isn't that like BJ telling the Queen to go eff off?

[Agelastus]

The normal rule is that he will be replaced by an MP from the opposition (since he was a tory back in the day). We can expect the Johnson crew to break this unwritten rule too.

Actually, I partially retract my previous answer to this - it would appear that the "convention" is as much a myth as a practise.

This is a list of the parties of the Speaker since 1801 (newest first):

Tory (Bercow)
Labour
Labour (Boothroyd)
Conservative
Labour
Conservative
Labour
Conservative
Conservative
Conservative
Conservative
Liberal
Conservative
Liberal
Liberal
Liberal
Liberal
Whig
Whig
Tory
Tory
Tory
Tory

And when the alternation was actually happening (in the Sixties to the Nineties) the only time that the Speaker was elected from the Opposition, not the Governing party, was in 1992 when Betty Boothroyd of Labour became Speaker under Major's Tory government.

Which also happens to coincide with a government that could not afford to lose a vote given the small majority it had at the beginning of a potentially five year long parliament.

Alternation may be an unwritten rule, but it's one that's been pretty comprehensively trashed in the last 20 years by Labour MPs* and even before then was not of a very longstanding vintage. So I can actually see Boris trying to get a Tory candidate in for Speaker; he won't succeed though unless an election is held where he gets a decent majority.

I think they should break convention and elect a Liberal MP...or and SNP MP...

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*In fact, if you do believe it should alternate between parties due to some principal of fairness ("equal bites of the cherry") then an argument could be made that the Tories would be due for a second speaker in a row to make up for Labour having two in a row.

[Josquius]

In these days where they're trying to spin it as people vs. parliament and every vote counts would they really be that keen on blowing on their seats on the speaker?

Given Bercow was a Labour-leaning Tory, wonder if we'll get a Tory-leaning Labourite. IIRC Hooey (her name sums up my thoughts on her) already said she was quitting?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Interesting; I agree that Labour is largely to blame for this particular one btw.

[Tonitrus]

BJ should push Rees-Mogg for Speaker.  He'd probably bring back the silly wig. 

[Razgovory]

BJ should push Rees-Mogg for Speaker.  He'd probably bring back the silly wig. 

I would certainly push Rees-Mogg if I was Johnson.  I would just need to find something high enough to push him from.

[Tamas]

Seems like Labour isn't letting go the idea of nationalising rail, mail, water, and energy.

I can't see them winning like that. After 3 years of Brexit chaos, I can't see how the turmoil of nationalising shit would sound like a good idea to people.

[Josquius]

Seems like Labour isn't letting go the idea of nationalising rail, mail, water, and energy.

I can't see them winning like that. After 3 years of Brexit chaos, I can't see how the turmoil of nationalising shit would sound like a good idea to people.

They're not planning to just seize the companies overnight.
They're planning to renationalise as franchises expire.
Sorting out the railways is a very popular policy.


Right noises being made otherwise. Finally saying we need a follow up referendum.

When the election comes I really encourage everyone to vote tactically no matter your views on whether it would be the lib dems or Labour ideally.