Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

It depends on wether Ireland wants a showdown or wants a better outcome. I don't think Ireland really wants a showdown.

No deal is better for Ireland than no backstop. In the former case they can still hope to establish the single market again at a later point and keep the shared responsibility for the north. In the latter case, they have accepted permanent division of the island.

Good point, something I didn't consider before.

[garbon]

Of course, the immediate consequence of no deal is no backstop...

[grumbler]

Of course, the immediate consequence of no deal is no backstop...

That's my impression as well.  What would be the motivation for the UK to institute the backstop in the case of No Deal?  I thought avoiding the backstop was a prime driver in the No Deal position.

[Tamas]

Of course, the immediate consequence of no deal is no backstop...

That's my impression as well.  What would be the motivation for the UK to institute the backstop in the case of No Deal?  I thought avoiding the backstop was a prime driver in the No Deal position.

The EU has stated already, that if the UK ever wants a free trade deal, it needs a backstop-like solution.

And I think Zanza is spot on regarding Ireland's motivation. If they agree to some sort of a deal where there's no frictionless border, then they basically give their blessing to such a setup. If they sort of let  a border happen, then at least they have not approved it.

[Tamas]

Also: Johnson will be proroguing Parliament a bit ahead of schedule, this evening.

[garbon]

And I think Zanza is spot on regarding Ireland's motivation. If they agree to some sort of a deal where there's no frictionless border, then they basically give their blessing to such a setup. If they sort of let  a border happen, then at least they have not approved it.

All of that will probably be cold comfort to the Irish citizens immediately impacted vs long-term deal.

[Tamas]

And I think Zanza is spot on regarding Ireland's motivation. If they agree to some sort of a deal where there's no frictionless border, then they basically give their blessing to such a setup. If they sort of let  a border happen, then at least they have not approved it.

All of that will probably be cold comfort to the Irish citizens immediately impacted vs long-term deal.

But this is not a real option. A no-customs border between the two Irelands would amount to a free trade deal with the EU, except it would channel all such trade through there. This is not acceptable for the EU even if it would be for Ireland.

After that, all the other outside border states of the EU could perfectly legitimately demand they are allowed to strike independent deals with their neighbours, and the customs union would fall apart rapidly.

[Tamas]

BTW on one of the electric info billboards over the M25 this morning, they alerted people their EU freight paperwork might change after Oct 31.

I guess last moment to do so before this scenario becomes illegal

[Berkut]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

[garbon]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Yes, unfortunately it does.

[Valmy]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Our administration thinks it is good for the United States, I guess it means we can bully the UK around now.

[Syt]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Our administration thinks it is good for the United States, I guess it means we can bully the UK around now.

"Just sign the trade agreement on this dotted line. .... No, don't read it, just sign."

[The Larch]

So Boris is visiting Ireland today, and had a joint press conference with Leo Varadkar at the end of their meeting. On it Varadkar pretty much stated what is bleedingly obvious for everyone, that with Brexit the two countries that are going to suffer the most are the UK and Ireland, not so much the rest of the EU, and that a No Deal Brexit will in no way be a clean break and that even after the UK leaving the EU one way or the other there will still be a ton of negotiating to do afterwards to settle the issues that had already been agreed with May in the Withdrawal Agreement (citizens rights, Irish border...).

[Razgovory]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Our administration thinks it is good for the United States, I guess it means we can bully the UK around now.

Yeah, and that shows the short sighed idiocy of the President.  The President has made clear that he hates the EU.  I don't fully understand why, but whatever, he want's it gone.  If he wanted to damage the EU he would offer Britain a sweetheart deal that make the citizens of the EU jealous.  That would further his goal.  But instead he's going to try to take advantage of Britain, because he can't help himself from kicking someone while they are down.

[dps]

Does anyone actually want Brexit at this point? Does it still enjoy support in the UK?

Our administration thinks it is good for the United States, I guess it means we can bully the UK around now.

Uhm, haven't we been able to do that pretty much since 1956 anyway?