Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Iormlund]

The risk is huge though. If he can't form a government in two weeks after a VoNC he'll hand over No Deal Brexit on a platter to Boris.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Corbyn has an unerring instinct to make the wrong decision. I'm fairly sure he could make some political capital from backing one of the moderates; a statesmanlike move that would probably garner future support from remainers. But he is basically a Bolshevik; in the sense that the "right" path is the right path and compromise is always misguided.

[Iormlund]

Corbyn has an unerring instinct to make the wrong decision. I'm fairly sure he could make some political capital from backing one of the moderates; a statesmanlike move that would probably garner future support from remainers. But he is basically a Bolshevik; in the sense that the "right" path is the right path and compromise is always misguided.

I think he just wants to up the stakes.

He could have proposed someone like Ken Clarke. It would've instantly defused the accusations of extremism and partisanship, made it possible to get all available Tory votes, and he would've still gotten all political capital from leading the charge.

However, with his proposal both succeeding and failing have great advantages. If he succeeds, he's the PM that saved the day.
If he fails, he'll get his Brexit, and likely becomes the PM after a disastrous Tory No Deal. He'll be the one to shape the future UK relationship with the EU.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, like I said, a fucking Bolshevik 

[Zanza]

He'll be the one to shape the future UK relationship with the EU.

After the UK crashing out, it will probably take longer than the legislative period of the FTPA to establish comprehensive new relations with Europe. And they still need to solve Northern Ireland.
My impression of Cornyn is that he is not interested at all in Europe and just wants to implement his policies in the UK. That would take most of his time and there would be little progress on positive relations with the continent or Ireland.

[Josquius]

Yep. That's exactly right Zanza.
Much too much is made of Corbyn being a brexiter.
His voting record clearly shows a history of not giving a toss about Europe. Its like he is autistic or something. He has tunnel vision only on things that interest him.

[Tamas]

Corbyn is pushing for a no confidence motion, but refuses to really discuss Brexit because who cares, and tries to concentrate on the big societal issues of the day, which apparently Brexit isn't.

Q: John McDonnell said this morning he would campaign for remain in a second referendum. Would you? And if not, can you see why remainers have doubts about your leadership?

Corbyn says McDonnell was giving his personal view.

He says the real issue is what must be done to end inequality in Britain.

[The Brain]

Corbyn is senile, isn't he?

[jimmy olsen]

Yikes

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/18/brexit-leaked-papers-predict-food-shortages-and-port-delays-operation-yellowhammer

Brexit: leaked papers predict food shortages and port delays

Medicines will also be subject to shortages, according to 'realistic assessment'

The UK will face a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard Irish border and shortages of food and medicine if it leaves the EU without a deal, according to government documents on Operation Yellowhammer.

The documents predict severe extended delays to medicine supplies and shortages of some fresh foods combined with price rises as a likely scenario if the UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement, which is due to happen on 31 October.

They suggest there has been a worsening of the risk since documents leaked to the Guardian showed some of the government's "reasonable worst-case scenarios" (RWCS) involved risk to medicine supplies and disruption to food chains.

The dossier, compiled this month, says up to 85% of lorries using the main channel crossings "may not be ready" for French customs and could face queues of two and a half days, the Sunday Times reported.

Medical supplies will be "vulnerable to severe extended delays" as three-quarters of the UK's medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings, and the availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise, which could hit "vulnerable groups".

The government also believes the return of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would be likely as current plans to avoid widespread checks would prove unsustainable.

A senior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times: "This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case."

Downing Street sources would not comment on the record about the leaked document but hit back at its accuracy, saying it was prepared under Theresa May's administration and did not reflect the level of planning that had gone on under Boris Johnson.

A No 10 source said: "This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders.

"Those obstructing preparation are no longer in government, £2bn of extra funding has already been made available and Whitehall has been stood up to actually do the work through the daily ministerial meetings. The entire posture of government has changed."

Leading pro-Brexit MPs also rejected the predictions made in the document. Two Tory former cabinet ministers, Iain Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson, claimed the leak was an example of an "establishment" plot to "sow fear in people's minds".

On Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme, Kwasi Kwarteng, a minister at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, said there was "a lot of scaremongering around and a lot of people are playing into Project Fear and all the rest of it".

Johnson insists he still wants the UK to leave with a deal but he has demanded a fresh agreement with the EU without the backstop, a mechanism to prevent a hard border in Ireland that could keep Britain in a customs union.

He is due to visit Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, before a G7 summit this week to underline his demands for concessions. However, the EU is adamant that the backstop must stay.

With the likelihood of no deal increasing, more than 100 MPs from across the political parties have called on Johnson to recall parliament to allow for debate on Brexit.

Moves are under way by Tory rebels along with Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat and other MPs to legislate against no deal. If that fails they are working on replacing Johnson with a caretaker government after a vote of no confidence.

Johnson's strategy is to blame parliamentarians for blocking Brexit, before a possible general election that he would fight on a "people versus parliament" platform.

In a letter leaked to the Mail on Sunday, Johnson said it was "plain as a pikestaff" that EU leaders would "simply not compromise" and agree to a new deal if Tory MPs openly discussed stopping a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

The letter will be seen as an attack on Philip Hammond, the former chancellor, and Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who are among those leading Tory rebels trying to find ways to stop the government leaving the EU without an agreement.

In a letter to 20 Tories who had written to him demanding a deal, Johnson replied: "Any such parliamentary campaign, any tricks of procedure or alliance of factions designed to derail Brexit, gravely damages the chances of our securing a deal."

The government is applying its energies to showing the EU that it is serious about leaving on 31 October with or without a deal. This weekend Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, moved to sign a commencement order, which would trigger the end of the supremacy of EU law in the UK on 31 October.

[Valmy]

Brexit makes the President's stupid trade war with China look brilliant be comparison.

[Maladict]

But they will never take your freedom!

[Maladict]

They still don't have a plan....shocker.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49402840

Boris Johnson has told the EU the backstop plan for the Irish border must be scrapped because it is "unviable" and "anti-democratic".

In a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk, the PM said the backstop - which aims to avoid a hard border - risked undermining the Northern Irish peace process.

If the plan were removed, Mr Johnson claimed a Brexit deal would be passed by Parliament.

Brussels has not yet responded.

However, the EU has consistently insisted the backstop must remain part of the withdrawal agreement and cannot be changed.

In a phone conversation with Mr Johnson on Monday evening, Irish Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar reiterated that the agreement - negotiated by former PM Theresa May but rejected by Parliament three times - could not be reopened.

Mr Johnson's four-page letter to Mr Tusk comes ahead of meetings this week with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The border is a matter of great political, security and diplomatic sensitivity, and both the UK and EU agree that whatever happens after Brexit there should be no new physical checks or infrastructure at the frontier.

The backstop is a position of last resort to guarantee that, but if implemented, it would see Northern Ireland stay aligned to some rules of the EU single market.

It would also involve a temporary single customs territory, effectively keeping the whole of the UK in the EU customs union.

In his letter, Mr Johnson described the arrangement as "inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK" and insisted it could not form part of a withdrawal agreement.

He also warned that it risked "weakening the delicate balance" of the Good Friday peace agreement because unionist parties like the DUP are so unhappy with it.

The prime minister called for "flexible and creative solutions" and "alternative arrangements" - based on technology - to avoid a hard border.

He said the backstop should be replaced with a commitment to put in place such arrangements as far as possible before the end of the transition period - currently the end of 2020 under Mrs May's deal.

If they were not in place by the end of the transition period, Mr Johnson said the UK was "ready to look constructively and flexibly at what commitments might help".

"Time is very short. But the UK is ready to move quickly  , and, given the degree of common ground already, I hope the EU will be ready to do likewise," he wrote.

"I am equally confident that Parliament would be able to act rapidly if we were able to reach a satisfactory agreement which did not contain the backstop."

The BBC's political correspondent Iain Watson said Mr Johnson appeared to be aiming for one of two outcomes - either the EU blinks as the prospect of no deal looms ever closer, or it holds firm, in which case the PM will argue it is Brussels' fault the country is heading for no deal.
View from the EU

The prime minister's letter shows that the UK is not committed to a fully worked up - "legally operable" - insurance policy for the Irish border to be contained in the Brexit divorce treaty.

Instead, Mr Johnson has proposed using the post-Brexit transition period to search for alternative ways of keeping the border open.

If they can't be found, the UK is committing to having a fall-back option. Yes... something you might call "a backstop".

A lot of this had been telegraphed to the EU in advance by the prime minister and his advisers but it feels different now it's on paper.

European diplomats wonder whether they are being asked to sign up to something that is too vague, too difficult to achieve, or just too hard for them to accept.

Privately, they fall into three camps: those closely involved with the drafting of the backstop who feel the proposal crosses the EU's red lines; those who think it is a stunt rather than a genuine offer; and some who believe it provides an opening to break the Brexit stalemate.

However, Labour pointed out that Mr Johnson actually voted for Mrs May's deal - including the backstop - when it came before Parliament for a third time in March.

Mr Johnson said at the time he was only doing so because he had reached the "sad conclusion" it was the only way to ensure the UK actually left the EU.

"Whichever Brexit outcome he pursues, whether it's a disastrous no deal or this fantasyland wish list, Boris Johnson clearly has no qualms about putting jobs, rights, prosperity or peace in Northern Ireland at risk," shadow Northern Ireland secretary Tony Lloyd said.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is calling on the government to publish all documents on the impact of a no-deal Brexit, after a leak at the weekend suggested there could be significant disruption to supplies of food and medicine.

The government insisted the Operation Yellowhammer information was out of date and Brexit planning had accelerated since Mr Johnson became PM.

Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly told the BBC on Tuesday: "What it is, it's an internal document to stimulate actions and behaviour of governments - it's not a prediction, it's not a future estimate of reality, it is a series of worst-case scenarios to be mitigated and avoided."

However, Mr Corbyn said: "If the government wants to be believed that it doesn't represent the real impact, it must publish its most recent assessments today in full."

A government spokesperson said up-to-date information on what businesses and members of the public needed to do to prepare for the UK's departure from the EU was available on the government's website.

[The Larch]

Still rambling on about creative arrangements and technology solving the Irish border conundrum? 

[Tamas]

Still rambling on about creative arrangements and technology solving the Irish border conundrum? 

Yes, the official stance, basically, is that since the UK do not like the backstop, it is now the EU's responsibility to figure out something better. If they can't, then everything will be the EU's fault

[Tamas]

I mean, look at this reaction from BoJo's government, as quoted by a journalist:

Senior figure in U.K. government on @eucopresident tweet: "[This] looks like an over re-action from Tusk. It appears their position is nothing will change from the unworkable deal offered to Theresa May. Sad they are unwilling to be reasonable."