Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Iormlund]

I don't want to be pessimistic, but the way automotive works is around economies of scale. If enough OEMs shift their production out, the big Tier 1 & 2s will do likewise, and the the rest of the suppliers will be turbofucked.

[mongers]

Honda also has a factory in Gebze (Turkey). Given the resources automotive companies have poured into Turkey I'm assuming their cars are included in the Turkish-EU arrangements. It's a pretty good place to shift investments to since there's plenty of infrastructure in the area already (we have a plant there for example).

Ironic that some of the scandalous Brexit posters and social media misinformation showed 60 million Turks being able to move to the EU and UK. In the end it turns out it'll be 'British' jobs moving to Turkey instead.


edit:

Just 937 hours, 1 minute and 8 seconds till Brexit.

[The Larch]

And these were the guys that were supposed to have scores of trade deals ready to be signed right after exiting the EU?

Japan almost cancelled Brexit talks due to 'high-handed' letter – report

Trade talks will go ahead despite reported dismay at language used by Liam Fox and Jeremy Hunt

Highlights:

The Financial Times cited unnamed officials in Tokyo who reacted with dismay to a letter sent on 8 February in which Hunt, the foreign secretary, and Fox, the international trade secretary, insisted that "time is of the essence" in securing a trade deal with Japan, the world's third-biggest economy.

Hunt and Fox also called for flexibility on both sides – an approach the paper said had been interpreted as criticism that Japan did not share their desire to quickly conclude a free trade agreement after Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on 29 March.

The newspaper also reported that Japanese trade officials were growing frustrated with their British counterparts, who had arrived at meetings without specialists capable of taking the talks forward.

To add to Britain's frustration, Japan has reportedly ruled out simply replicating the terms of a Japan-EU trade agreement that went into effect at the start of this month but which will be unavailable to the UK after Brexit. Instead, it will seek tougher concessions from Britain than it secured from the EU.

Reports of Japan's angry response to the tactics employed by Hunt and Fox emerged days after China abruptly cancelled a crucial trade meeting with the chancellor, Philip Hammond, due to take place in Beijing this week.

Hammond's visit was called off after the defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, warned that Britain could deploy an aircraft carrier in the Pacific, where Beijing has been involved in a dispute over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

[Zanza]

I don't want to be pessimistic, but the way automotive works is around economies of scale. If enough OEMs shift their production out, the big Tier 1 & 2s will do likewise, and the the rest of the suppliers will be turbofucked.

The Mini plant in nearby Oxford could be next. They are already moving production to the Netherlands and I think Slovakia.

[Josquius]

So things are going exactly as anyone who knows anything about the auto industry thought they would.
Its a shame they held on this long really. If only the Japan-EU treaty had been agreed earlier then the Japanese firms could have gone into their holding manouever a year or two ago to give how bad this is time to sink in.

Of course. The brexiters are squirming and spreading stories that this is because of the evil EU signing a free trade deal. Free trade is bad now afterall. A deal was never planned

And no, I haven't changed my mind; I was always expecting an economic shock and I've made it clear in the past that my motives for voting to leave were based on the political implications of Europe, not the economic. I am, however, less convinced that the medium term will be as reasonable in economic terms as I had previously stated (I believe I replied to Garbon (?) previously that I believed we would be short-term bad, medium term OK, long term good.)

And the huge suffering being caused to innocent people?
That's fine too?

If someone voted Brexit in 2016 then that doesn't instantly curse them. There were a lot of idealists and those who were tricked.
But to still support it?
I've wrote and deleted a lot here. There's just so much wrong with this. When did the UK become so sociopathic?

[Iormlund]

Apparently negotiations for the Japan-EU FTA were stalled on cars and cheese until 2017. Then the EU accepted to kill tariffs on Japanese cars and the Japanese scrapped theirs on European wine and cheese in return.

What event could have prompted the EU to do such a thing, I wonder? Could it have something to do with the fact that the main Japanese car factories in the EU were about to be outside the EU? 

[Josquius]

Apparently negotiations for the Japan-EU FTA were stalled on cars and cheese until 2017. Then the EU accepted to kill tariffs on Japanese cars and the Japanese scrapped theirs on European wine and cheese in return.

What event could have prompted the EU to do such a thing, I wonder? Could it have something to do with the fact that the main Japanese car factories in the EU were about to be outside the EU? 

Perhaps.
But don't misunderstand what the Japanese companies are doing here. This is not a permanent move of manufacturing back to Japan. There's a whole lot of people applying western thinking to the Japanese actions and screaming "Well of course they want to give jobs to Japanese people instead".
But, this seems unlikely.
The auto industry in Japan, even when making for the Japanese market, has for years actively been sending as much work overseas as possible, moving the lower tier manufacturing to the Philippines, Indonesia, etc...
Manufacturing in Japan is not cheap, even as developed countries go, and whats worse there is a huge labour shortage in Japan.  Many of these auto industry jobs are in pretty small towns and cities which are taking the brunt of Japan's population decline.
Not to mention the obvious fact that Japan is on the other side of the planet. Cars are not easy or cheap to ship. Its not entirely tariff related that the Japanese auto industry for decades has been trying to set up manufacturing in or near to the target markets.
Long term a car company manufacturing in Japan for the European market just won't be able to compete with one which has a European manufacturing base.

It's pretty clear to me that this move of manufacturing to Japan is a holding maneuver. They're hiding out back in Japan, minimizing production in the UK as much as possible, whilst they wait for the dust from Brexit to clear.
They are still hopeful that the people will take back control in the UK and call the whole thing off or that a sane deal will be reached and we'll end up with the 2016's result of a Norway style situation. This done, supply chains can run smoothly again and (less importantly) exports of completed cars can go back to normal and they can return manufacturing to the UK; however it will be sometime before their confidence can reach anywhere near its previous levels.
If that doesn't happen though then let the bidding commence. There'll be no shortage of other European locations lining up to offer them incitements for a new site.

Also, tangentially related, there's Brexit Jnr to consider; Trump.
His election, America-first polices, anti TPP stance and general douchiness did a lot to push Japan and Europe towards closer cooperation.

[Agelastus]

So things are going exactly as anyone who knows anything about the auto industry thought they would.
Its a shame they held on this long really. If only the Japan-EU treaty had been agreed earlier then the Japanese firms could have gone into their holding manouever a year or two ago to give how bad this is time to sink in.

Of course. The brexiters are squirming and spreading stories that this is because of the evil EU signing a free trade deal. Free trade is bad now afterall. A deal was never planned

Swindon's running at less than half-capacity, Honda's sales have been declining to the point where they are a niche model in major European markets, and it's easy to find industry articles on the internet going back several years saying Honda should close Swindon. Even without Brexit and the EU Trade deal Swindon seems to have been on borrowed time, regardless of how surprised the workforce seem.

Nissan's decisions are of far more concern, of course; one cannot argue with that.

And the huge suffering being caused to innocent people?
That's fine too?

I could point out that "huge suffering" is a typical piece of hyperbole on your part that insults the genuine suffering of those in the past. Even the most pessimistic scenarios don't see conditions equivalent to those of the early 1930s happening, for example.

Or I could point out that accepting some suffering now for a better future for your people is a perfectly acceptable position to hold even if you, personally, do not believe that this will be the case.

If someone voted Brexit in 2016 then that doesn't instantly curse them. There were a lot of idealists and those who were tricked.
But to still support it?
I've wrote and deleted a lot here. There's just so much wrong with this. When did the UK become so sociopathic?

:shrug:

I've written and deleted a lot here myself. Mostly about the contempt you seem to hold for your country and a large section of your fellow countrymen.

Personally? I've been clear for years on this forum concerning my position vis-à-vis Europe; I've even been clear that I first leaned towards exit at the time of Maastricht and that Lisbon cemented this tendency. While I am less sanguine/optimistic about the future than I was in 2016 I haven't changed my position. This should not surprise you.

It also appears that we both consider the other to be a sociopath now. It is quite likely that we are both wrong in this consideration.

[mongers]

....

Or I could point out that accepting some suffering now for a better future for your people is a perfectly acceptable position to hold even if you, personally, do not believe that this will be the case.
......

Is it?

[Syt]

John Oliver summarizes the insanity of Brexit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaBQfSAVt0s

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't want to be pessimistic, but the way automotive works is around economies of scale. If enough OEMs shift their production out, the big Tier 1 & 2s will do likewise, and the the rest of the suppliers will be turbofucked.

That is my understanding of the industry too. So you have 3500 folk at the primary plant, 10,000 or so at suppliers and who knows how many jobs supported by these people's wages.

Assuming that the tariff barriers go up I can see only one possible silver lining. The British car market is quite large and we also drive on the left-hand side. It would give plants based in the UK a competitive advantage for domestic sales against foreign competition. On that basis a manufacturer such as Nissan might target a much larger market share and expand production for the UK domestic market. All very 1950s of course........

[Threviel]

Or the UK being forced into a trade deal with Japan where they can export their left-hand cars to the UK totally killing off UK auto industry.

[garbon]

....

Or I could point out that accepting some suffering now for a better future for your people is a perfectly acceptable position to hold even if you, personally, do not believe that this will be the case.
......

Is it?

Maybe if you tried to qualify for Mensa, you'd be able to reason his level.

[Josquius]

That is my understanding of the industry too. So you have 3500 folk at the primary plant, 10,000 or so at suppliers and who knows how many jobs supported by these people's wages.

Assuming that the tariff barriers go up I can see only one possible silver lining. The British car market is quite large and we also drive on the left-hand side. It would give plants based in the UK a competitive advantage for domestic sales against foreign competition. On that basis a manufacturer such as Nissan might target a much larger market share and expand production for the UK domestic market. All very 1950s of course........

Remember however that most of the parts suppliers are elsewhere in the EU. For instance my favourite fact that only 2 companies are making brakes for 90%+ of the cars out there and neither has a British plant.
The only way I can see assembly for the British market in the UK being practical is if the government sets up Chinese style draconian tariffs on imports of completed foreign cars.
More expected is that they'll manufacture elsewhere in the EU and rely on the fact that prices are also considerably higher for all of their competitors to compete in the UK.
The car companies are a lot more cartelish in their behaviour with each other than many expect, so it is not beyond possibility there could even be an off the record gentleman's agreement amongst themselves not to setup in the UK.

I could point out that "huge suffering" is a typical piece of hyperbole on your part that insults the genuine suffering of those in the past. Even the most pessimistic scenarios don't see conditions equivalent to those of the early 1930s happening, for example.

Or I could point out that accepting some suffering now for a better future for your people is a perfectly acceptable position to hold even if you, personally, do not believe that this will be the case.

So basically, "Fuck them. I want brexit."
That things are not so bad these days at other points in history is irrelevant.  It's  a comparison that would forgive any crime just so long as you stop short of full on genocide.

There is no hyperbole on my part. Brexit has severely fucked up my life plans and it seems similar for Tamas too, and I do not imagine for a second that we are in any way amongst the worst hit. We have a whole host of advantages that others do not have.
Not a week goes by that another story emerges of some poor old lady who cannot just casually up and move being told to leave the country she has lived in for decades by the brexit regime. And what of lower income families with children?

I seriously wouldn't be surprised if the count of deaths that can be tied to brexit is entering 4 figures now. It'll likely be a few years before we see research into this though, and of course it'll be disbelieved by those in power as part of the general trend of dismissing anything bad to do with brexit and the standard disregard for mental health.

:shrug:

I've written and deleted a lot here myself. Mostly about the contempt you seem to hold for your country and a large section of your fellow countrymen.

Personally? I've been clear for years on this forum concerning my position vis-à-vis Europe; I've even been clear that I first leaned towards exit at the time of Maastricht and that Lisbon cemented this tendency. While I am less sanguine/optimistic about the future than I was in 2016 I haven't changed my position. This should not surprise you.

It also appears that we both consider the other to be a sociopath now. It is quite likely that we are both wrong in this consideration.

That's where you could be an idealist.
Lots of people voted brexit out of dislike of various aspects of the way the EU is setup, believing that we could have a nice, smooth transition to a Swiss-like setup where democratic accountability is increased and lovely things happen.
Most of these people have since changed their mind. They've seen that the sensible brexit of their imagining has been hijacked and their vote had the unintentional effect of empowering the crazies who are actively looking to create the worst case brexit that the remain side warned about.
Others....they are too tied into the footballisation of politics. Brexit is their team. They cannot admit that it was the incorrect choice even as it becomes clear what they voted for is not going to happen.

[Tamas]

Come on. Agelastus may be wrong but at least he is openly taking up his opinion here despite being in the minority, and he does so in a level-headed way. We should return the favour.

I mean, he could go the derspiess way of "oh no I didn't vote Leave but lulz your tears are delicious"