Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

In todays news the brexit secretary has just realised the UK is an island.

And I'm not exaggerating by much.

Oh my, you made me look this up:

Last night, at a tech industry event, Raab admitted that his grasp of the detail had been upgraded with some salient facts – such as the importance of the Channel to commerce with Europe. "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this," he said. "But if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing."

[Valmy]

Last night, at a tech industry event, Raab admitted that his grasp of the detail had been upgraded with some salient facts – such as the importance of the Channel to commerce with Europe. "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this," he said. "But if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing."

Well clearly are a large portion of the electorate.

[Syt]

[Tamas]

Meanwhile a "technical agreement" has been apparently struck. Cabinet members are reading through all 400 pages of it tonigh (I am sure), and they discuss it tomorrow.

Boris Borisovich and Rees-Mogg already calling to reject it, although nobody has seen it yet.

[Duque de Bragança]

In todays news the brexit secretary has just realised the UK is an island.

And I'm not exaggerating by much.

I hope so, since there is the Channel tunnel that would be quite an exaggeration. 

[ulmont]

Meanwhile a "technical agreement" has been apparently struck. Cabinet members are reading through all 400 pages of it tonigh (I am sure), and they discuss it tomorrow.

So a "technical agreement" is something that all the negotiators could live with, and now it goes back to be fucked up by the legislative bodies?

[Zanza]

Will be interesting what's in there regarding the "level playing field" the EU demanded to go for a customs union. Most likely not the freedom of movement, so that the UK could at least cherry-pick on that. Nevertheless I expect way too much adherence to EU rules being required for it to be palatable for significant parts of Tories and DUP.

What happens if May can't pass the agreement in the HoC?

[Valmy]

Will be interesting what's in there regarding the "level playing field" the EU demanded to go for a customs union. Most likely not the freedom of movement, so that the UK could at least cherry-pick on that. Nevertheless I expect way too much adherence to EU rules being required for it to be palatable for significant parts of Tories and DUP.

What happens if May can't pass the agreement in the HoC?

Do the other parties in the UK get a say here or can a portion of two parties decide everything?

[PJL]

Plan is pretty much dead on arrival. It's not going to get through Parliament. The Tory Europhobes are against it, the DUP is probably against it, Lab & LibDem are against it, the Nationalists are against it, and even some Tory Europhiles are against it. It's not going to happen.

I doubt it will even get past the Cabinet.

Most likely course of action is that May will either resign as Tory leader, and new leader elected, or there will be a referendum on Brexit. Though i wouldn't rule out a general election.

[Valmy]

Plan is pretty much dead on arrival. It's not going to get through Parliament. The Tory Europhobes are against it, the DUP is probably against it, Lab & LibDem are against it, the Nationalists are against it, and even some Tory Europhiles are against it. It's not going to happen.

So...what is actually in this plan that it is able to be rejected by everybody for, presumably, different reasons?

[PJL]

Plan is pretty much dead on arrival. It's not going to get through Parliament. The Tory Europhobes are against it, the DUP is probably against it, Lab & LibDem are against it, the Nationalists are against it, and even some Tory Europhiles are against it. It's not going to happen.

So...what is actually in this plan that it is able to be rejected by everybody for, presumably, different reasons?

Basically everyone who is against it agrees that it a bad plan because it effectively puts the UK under EU rules with none of the power to change those rules.

[ulmont]

Basically everyone who is against it agrees that it a bad plan because it effectively puts the UK under EU rules with none of the power to change those rules.

The UK has totally fucked itself up from the beginning.  Tracking the "UK red lines" made it clear that the UK couldn't accept anything other than a Canada / Japan semi-special relationship:


But that's completely incompatible with the Good Friday accords and the associated UK prior commitments:

The UK government committed on 8 December 2017 to "the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls". Moreover, it also agreed to a backstop agreement, which means that in the absence of any other agreement "the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support north-south cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/09/brexiters-no-deal-irish-border-brexit

[Valmy]

Plan is pretty much dead on arrival. It's not going to get through Parliament. The Tory Europhobes are against it, the DUP is probably against it, Lab & LibDem are against it, the Nationalists are against it, and even some Tory Europhiles are against it. It's not going to happen.

So...what is actually in this plan that it is able to be rejected by everybody for, presumably, different reasons?

Basically everyone who is against it agrees that it a bad plan because it effectively puts the UK under EU rules with none of the power to change those rules.

Well I just have to say it is impressive that the UK sent negotiators empowered to agree to a deal that is unacceptable by every single interest in the UK. One wonders what exactly their instructions were.

Edit: Wait is this the end of the May Government? Well damn. She was clearly handed an unwinnable situation, though I guess she was not really 'handed it' so much as took it. Some crowns should be left in the gutter.

[Iormlund]

She made her bed.

[Tamas]

Nobody knows exactly what's in the agreement, yet.