Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Syt]

Will she get away with that at home?

[Josquius]

A solution is materialising: May will kick the can down the road for a year more and the EU will let her, i.e. the "transitional period" will last a year more.

Another year for the dead to die and the sane to rise up.

[Tamas]

Will she get away with that at home?

Good question, I really don't know. But I am not cherishing the thought of hearing and reading the 3 same thoughts repeated over and over and over and over and over and over again on British media.

It's been more than 2 years since the referendum and the conversation has not moved on one bit. And I do mean that.

Every fucking TV conversation about Brexit, every fucking day for two years now:
-We should leave the customs union.
-We can't because of Ireland and the economy.
-We should stay in the customs union then.
-We can't because of them immigrants and the people have spoken
-We should stay in the customs union AND keep them immigrants out, then
-We can't, the EU won't let us
-We should leave the customs union.

And there is then online/print media. Everyone is putting their head in the sand for various reasons.

Like how the Guardian is quite strongly pro-Remain, but they don't want to be too mean to Labour, right? So they do shit like this morning when they report on Corbyn's campaign speech at some coal mining backwater:

Corbyn said: we are going to do a much better Brexit deal then the Tories, honest
Journalist reports: Labour do want a different Brexit, since they want to stay in a customs union with the EU, although details are missing, since they intend to be able to have a say in future trade deals the EU will make.

It is intellectually insulting, after two years especially, to not outright dismiss such a ridiculous premise, that a trading partner, far smaller than the EU block, would not only get the economical benefits of EU membership, but also have the EU effectively pay them for it, by giving them influence over what deals the EU will be allowed to make. Nonsense.
And the press should be calling out shit like that, not playing along.

[Tamas]

Another thing I find arrogant is that they are trying to make a row over Parliament not being able to table ammendments to whatever deal will be made between the government and the EU.

I mean, I understand a lack of trust in whatever May and her crew can end up finalising, but FFS the deal has to be agreed by the EU as well, if it gets amended on one side, it's not the same deal the EU agreed to anymore.

[Syt]

But ... but ... UK says the EU is the problem, not their kind requests.

[The Larch]

Oooh, this is a good one.

Moldova Grudge Could Cost U.K. Access to $1.7 Trillion Projects

The U.K.'s post-Brexit access to $1.7 trillion in public projects relies on the good will of its European neighbors. Too bad Moldova holds a grudge.

The tiny country wedged between Romania and Ukraine is joining half a dozen nations in blocking the U.K.'s re-entry to the World Trade Organization's Government Procurement Agreement, an accord that smooths the bidding process on public contracts, including in the $837 billion U.S. market.

Why the hold-up? Corina Cojocaru, Moldova's economic counselor to the WTO, and her team were denied entry to the U.K. last year when they wanted to discuss their future relationship with Britain after it leaves the European Union.

And Cojocaru has a good memory.

"I couldn't get a visa and a diplomatic passport to go to London to negotiate on government procurement," Cojocaru said in a telephone interview. "Nobody listened to us for six to seven months."

Cojocaru later clarified that the London trip wasn't taken in the context of negotiations on the GPA. The U.K. Home Office, which processes visa requests, didn't immediately comment.

Diplomatic Slight

Brexit backers have wooed Britain with their vision of a buccaneering future as a global trading nation clinching new deals in markets that were previous closed off to them because of their membership in the 28-nation bloc. The reality may be that they'll be held ransom by every country, like Moldova, that has suffered personal affronts.

For Cojocaru, the diplomatic slight is emblematic of a broader issue: If her delegation wasn't able to get visas in a timely manner, how could Moldovan suppliers seeking to bid on projects in the U.K. be expected to compete with vendors from nations that have an easier time gaining entry?

Moldova was joined by the U.S., New Zealand Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, and Israel in expressing concern that the U.K. application didn't pass muster, according to officials familiar with the accession procedure. U.S. reticence was due to the U.K.'s failure to provide requested information and updates.

The purpose of the GPA is to open up government procurement markets to foreign competition, and help make the process more transparent. British officials argue that the U.K. is a special case and should receive expedited approval because it's already a member -- although it has never independently ratified the agreement -- and can simply replicate its current commitments, deriving from its EU-membership status.

Trade Concessions

While all members of the GPA want to retain access to the U.K.'s 67 billion-pound ($88 billion) public procurement marketplace, they're still willing to use the opportunity to squeeze some concessions. Some members are seeking increased access to projects such as Britain's high-speed railways, a Heathrow airport expansion and government IT networks, among others.

And since a majority of the WTO's agreements are forged by consensus, as is the GPA, each country wields considerable power. GPA members will consider a provisional agreement to the U.K.'s accession bid at the next WTO government procurement committee meeting on Nov. 27.

The U.S., New Zealand and other WTO members have pressed the U.K. to ensure that Brexit doesn't prevent their companies' ability to sell more products like lamb, beef and chicken into the U.K. market. The U.S. and New Zealand have already begun procedural moves that presage talks to establish free-trade agreements.

The U.K. will need to iron out its accession difficulties with the other accord members soon, with Britain scheduled to leave the EU on March 29. But as Brexit negotiations reach a crescendo, it's becoming apparent that any detail, however small, can throw a wrench in the U.K.'s attempt to leave the EU with as little disruption as possible.

On Wednesday, after the U.K. bid to join the GPA stalled, "the U.K. minister for immigration contacted our ambassador in London," Cojocaru said. "I hope they will be able to find a compromise."

Who would have thought that being assholes to dirty furriners would be a handicap for diplomatic procedures?

[garbon]

Gossip from Moldova is a good one? If this article perhaps demonstrated a pattern of behaviour, that might be one thing.

[The Larch]

Gossip from Moldova is a good one? If this article perhaps demonstrated a pattern of behaviour, that might be one thing.

The article is from Bloomberg, hardly Moldovan gossip.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion

It shows, in rather stark terms, the harsh reality that post-Brexit UK will face to rejoin all kind of international arrangements, as it'll turn into an outsider and will need approval of partners to go back to normal. I'm sure that the UK will expect a "but we're already members so it's a special case, we should be allowed back no questions asked" kind of treatment, but it might find similar obstacles to the one presented by Moldova for this case in the future.

[garbon]

So again not a pattern of behaviour. The Moldovan economic counselor to the WTO says she wasn't allowed to come into the UK for reasons not known.

[Tamas]

From an Euronews guy's Twitter:

"Irish sources:
EU willing to alter the controversial backstop to make it UK-wide as requested.
However will take some time to prepare, in meantime they will look to put a clause in Withdrawal Agreement committing the EU to creating a UK-wide backstop.."


How is this a good thing?  That would mean that the whole of Britain remains in the customs union until they figure out how they can leave the customs union without leaving it.

[The Minsky Moment]

And when they were up they were up
And when they were down they were down
And when they were only halfway up
They were neither up nor down

[The Larch]

So again not a pattern of behaviour. The Moldovan economic counselor to the WTO says she wasn't allowed to come into the UK for reasons not known.

The exact motivation of Moldova is irrelevant, besides for the lols. The point is that the UK will have to negotiate from a position of weakness only to be able to rejoin all the international agreements it was already part of, and who knows which concessions it'll have to promise just to go back to "normal".

[Tamas]

So again not a pattern of behaviour. The Moldovan economic counselor to the WTO says she wasn't allowed to come into the UK for reasons not known.

The exact motivation of Moldova is irrelevant, besides for the lols. The point is that the UK will have to negotiate from a position of weakness only to be able to rejoin all the international agreements it was already part of, and who knows which concessions it'll have to promise just to go back to "normal".

BUT they'll be letting in countless Indians and Pakistanis instead of East Europeans. Big success!

[Josquius]

From an Euronews guy's Twitter:

"Irish sources:
EU willing to alter the controversial backstop to make it UK-wide as requested.
However will take some time to prepare, in meantime they will look to put a clause in Withdrawal Agreement committing the EU to creating a UK-wide backstop.."


How is this a good thing?  That would mean that the whole of Britain remains in the customs union until they figure out how they can leave the customs union without leaving it.

Sounds like a good thing to me, no?

[Tamas]

Well yes but she won't be able to get it through, and I am also not sure decades of uncertainty, a de facto EU membership that could be overturned in a moment's notice as soon as the wrong kind of government gains power, is a good thing.