Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Scotland in the EU with England on its own- adjustment will still be tough but Scotland could do very well taking business from London.

Why would that happen? if it the English speaking thing Ireland would make more sense, I would think.

Dublin is already targeting that heavily.
Hell. Already does it to an extent.

Edinburgh already operates as a secondary banking centre in the UK.

I'd see it as there being two Irelands rather than one. Nothing spectacularly new. But there is certainly a niche there that is set to expand with UK out of the EU.

I also wonder about people like me. Young educated Europeans. If Scotland plays its cards right it could really tempt a lot of them north to help boost the tech scene in Glasgow.  I actually am seriously looking at moving to Scotland in the next few years  as a life plan to survive brexit.

[Maladict]

Scotland would certainly survive, there's no functional reason it can't be an independent country. But that projected budget deficit, the share of British national debt it would almost certainly be required to assume, and the fact that North Sea oil revenues have cratered and are likely to never return, mean that the form of the Scottish state would be very different from what SNP is promising.

To get deficits in line to be acceptable for EU membership, there will be, if anything, social welfare austerity, not the more robust Scandinavian nanny state that is being hinted at as a possibility once the chains of Westminster are thrown off. From a strict economic perspective, I still think Scotland is much better off in a UK that isn't in the EU than it is not part of the UK. But Scotland would  be "okay" outside of the UK, but I think the transition will be absolutely brutal. I think SNP are frankly lying by not honestly acknowledging this.

I also think it needs to be hammered home North Sea oil is never likely to come back to the level it was, which was the main economic argument propping up most of SNP's fantasies. Especially with the developments in the United States, relatively low priced shale oil production is going to continue, and it's likely previously inaccessible easy oil is going to be opened up to drilling. Saudi Arabia has shown it's not going to cut back dramatically in response to high levels of U.S. drilling. North Sea oil has been drilled for a long time, it's expensive to get at now, and while producers like America are producing non-conventional oil at ever lower prices, at the same time we're also slowly moving away from fossil fuels. Maybe at some point far off in the future North Sea oil would make economic sense again, but by then global oil use will be lower in any case.

Scotland may be able to promote tourism more outside the UK but inside the EU, maybe just as an EU-alternative to England to visit the British isles.  It may be able to grab some financial business from London, maybe. But there's no silver bullet for Scotland. Without the UK its budget will be in bad shape and tough decisions will have to be made.

From what I've seen of Scotland they seem to be doing much better on the sustainable energy front than England.
With such a small population they might be able to make the transition to green energy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Expect a lot of arguments about how assets and liabilities are divvied up - particularly any share of the national debt. A rUK/Scotland divorce will get messy and nasty very quickly for most of the reasons set out.

I'd agree.

I lean towards being skeptical the UK will let Scotland bend it over a barrel, because Westminster can legally keep Scotland in regardless, and if they were being ridiculous with their demands (i.e. no share of the national debt, and things of that nature) could use that club. I don't think they'd use that club to keep Scotland in the Union against their will in general, but there is no incentive for the UK to let Scotland go on bad terms for the rest of the UK.

The last time the referendum was up the SNP and their supporters online largely just waved it all away like it'd be solved by magic. No major firms would relocate from Edinburgh (even though some said they absolutely would), Scotland would be able to just use the pound with no issue, they'd solve the issue of British military bases with no fuss, there would be open borders and cross border employment with no fuss, Scotland would take the minimal share of British debt possible etc. Basically they presume on every issue it would break in Scotland's favor, and it would do so with no trouble at all. 

[Zanza]

Brexit was stupid and a Scottish independence would be at least as stupid as Brexit. Scotland has a very successful union with England for 300+ years now, so there is very little to gain and much to lose from splitting up. There is no fundamental conflict like between catholic Ireland and England in the early 20th century here. It's not like Scots are somehow second-class citizens in Britain.

By the way, those EU "rules" on who is and who isn't a member are extremely flexible and can be adjusted more or less freely in the EU Council. While there may not be a precedent where a country split up and both parts were part of the EU afterwards, the opposite has a precedent. When West Germany annexed East Germany in 1990, the EEC regulations almost immediately applied to East Germany as well without any major negotiations or so.

[Josquius]

The pound one is curious. I've heard some  argue the Scottish pound is already a separate currency and that in currency trading you can sometimes find I listed separately. Which I'd really like to see investigated by a neutral party.

But for sure the SNP aren't the only well meaning party that they put themselves forward as. They're all about independence at any cost. Project Unicorn is all about spreading hopes and dreams with no data behind them. Kind of like a lot of the brexit stuff really.

[Zanza]

The Scottish Pound has its current value because it is interchangable legal tender with the British Pound and backed by the Bank of England. Why would England ever agree to a currency union with an independent Scotland (which would have to join the Euro eventually anyway).

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think that the main point to bear in mind is that Scotland would need to set up a central bank if it created its own currency. That bank would need foreign-exchange reserves.

[Tamas]

You guys are once again, like before the Brexit vote, get hung up on details, instead of caring about the WILL OF THE PEOPLE, which will, by sheer POWER OF WILL make all difficulties go away. Get on with the times, and stop worrying about numbers, predictions, or facts. Jesus.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not hung up on anything--I'm actually saying, and have said, structurally,  the UK will break up. So I have no doubt where the will of the people will ultimately lead.

I was highly skeptical of Brexit, but Brexit kind of changed my opinion on the "people" in a lot of ways. I never thought a referendum on Brexit was smart, but I did expect it to lose. What's insane is this one singular vote in which many people didn't even vote, is going to determine the future of Britain. It's unfortunate that Labour decided to shit the bed and turn to Corbyn, because Remain really needed a viable left of center advocate and he wasn't one, it wouldn't shock me if Corbyn himself voted leave.

I'm simply pointing out how stupid I think breaking up the UK is--but I'm not saying that means it won't happen, I've fully woken up to how stupid electorates are.

[Tamas]

I'm not hung up on anything--I'm actually saying, and have said, structurally,  the UK will break up. So I have no doubt where the will of the people will ultimately lead.

I was highly skeptical of Brexit, but Brexit kind of changed my opinion on the "people" in a lot of ways. I never thought a referendum on Brexit was smart, but I did expect it to lose. What's insane is this one singular vote in which many people didn't even vote, is going to determine the future of Britain. It's unfortunate that Labour decided to shit the bed and turn to Corbyn, because Remain really needed a viable left of center advocate and he wasn't one, it wouldn't shock me if Corbyn himself voted leave.

I'm simply pointing out how stupid I think breaking up the UK is--but I'm not saying that means it won't happen, I've fully woken up to how stupid electorates are.

I fully agree with you Otto, I was being sarcastic.

[garbon]

I'm not hung up on anything--I'm actually saying, and have said, structurally,  the UK will break up. So I have no doubt where the will of the people will ultimately lead.

I was highly skeptical of Brexit, but Brexit kind of changed my opinion on the "people" in a lot of ways. I never thought a referendum on Brexit was smart, but I did expect it to lose. What's insane is this one singular vote in which many people didn't even vote, is going to determine the future of Britain. It's unfortunate that Labour decided to shit the bed and turn to Corbyn, because Remain really needed a viable left of center advocate and he wasn't one, it wouldn't shock me if Corbyn himself voted leave.

I'm simply pointing out how stupid I think breaking up the UK is--but I'm not saying that means it won't happen, I've fully woken up to how stupid electorates are.

I fully agree with you Otto, I was being sarcastic.

Aka a whiny bitch.

[grumbler]

Irony isn't just the opposite of wrinkly!

[Tamas]

I'm not hung up on anything--I'm actually saying, and have said, structurally,  the UK will break up. So I have no doubt where the will of the people will ultimately lead.

I was highly skeptical of Brexit, but Brexit kind of changed my opinion on the "people" in a lot of ways. I never thought a referendum on Brexit was smart, but I did expect it to lose. What's insane is this one singular vote in which many people didn't even vote, is going to determine the future of Britain. It's unfortunate that Labour decided to shit the bed and turn to Corbyn, because Remain really needed a viable left of center advocate and he wasn't one, it wouldn't shock me if Corbyn himself voted leave.

I'm simply pointing out how stupid I think breaking up the UK is--but I'm not saying that means it won't happen, I've fully woken up to how stupid electorates are.

I fully agree with you Otto, I was being sarcastic.

Aka a whiny bitch.

I will not point out the obvious because if you can't see it now, you never will.

[garbon]

Is that like how you sarcastically discussed these hypothetical people who were saying Scotland will never vote to leave?

[Tamas]

Is that like how you sarcastically discussed these hypothetical people who were saying Scotland will never vote to leave?