Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

I guess they can move officers from the airports to the land borders as air travel to the EU or US will lack a legal basis after Brexit.

[Zanza]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41585430

Deadlock over UK's Brexit bill, says EU's Michel Barnier

The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier says there has not been enough progress to move to the next stage of Brexit talks as the UK wants.

He said there was "new momentum" in the process but there was still "deadlock" over the so-called divorce bill, which he said was "disturbing".

"Decisive progress is in our grasp within the next two months", he added.

This week's fifth round of talks are the final discussions before a crucial EU summit on 19 and 20 October.

The UK has been hoping EU leaders at the summit will decide enough progress has been made to open trade talks.

But Mr Barnier said: "I am not able in the current circumstances to propose next week to the European Council that we should start discussions on the future relationship."

The UK's Brexit Secretary David Davis said there had been progress on the area of citizens rights that had moved the two sides "even closer to a deal".

Mr Barnier said Theresa May's announcement that Britain would honour financial commitments entered into as an EU member was "important".

But he said there had been no negotiations on the issue this week because the UK was not ready to spell out what it would pay.

"We confined ourselves to technical discussions - useful discussions, but technical discussions.
[...]

I doubt that they can agree on anything regarding the open liabilities. The EU will not move from its position that the UK has lots of liabilities towards it, the UK cannot move its position as the Tory backbenchers would not support such an action.

Hard Brexit with no trade deal 'would cost UK economy £400bn by 2030', says study
[...]
A study by Dutch banking and financial services company, Rabobank has found that leaving the single market without a trade agreement in place would cost up to 18 per cent of the UK's GDP growth by 2030, compared with remaining in the EU.

Ouch

[Josquius]

Don't forget that the Tories lack a majority and there are a not insignificant amount of pro remain Tory MPs.
It's true there's always the fear of revitalising the flight to UKIP though this has been pretty firmly defeated by now IMO.

And yes. That theresa may interview was horrific. Had it been on BBC2 she'd be dead.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Link for the Rabobank report cited by Zanza :

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/the-permanent-damage-of-brexit/

An interesting read. I would say that it is very hard to know what will happen, so there is a fair amount of what I suspect to be spurious precision in the report; on the other hand I think they made a decent stab at it, it looks plausible.

[dps]

I guess they can move officers from the airports to the land borders as air travel to the EU or US will lack a legal basis after Brexit.

Could you clarify why air travel between the US and the UK would "lack a legal basis" after Brexit?

[Jacob]

I guess they can move officers from the airports to the land borders as air travel to the EU or US will lack a legal basis after Brexit.

Could you clarify why air travel between the US and the UK would "lack a legal basis" after Brexit?

My guess is that currently air travel between the UK and the US are covered by agreements and conventions between the US and the EU. Once the UK leaves the EU, they are no longer party to those agreements. Thus there is no legal basis until a replacement is put in place.

[dps]

I guess they can move officers from the airports to the land borders as air travel to the EU or US will lack a legal basis after Brexit.

Could you clarify why air travel between the US and the UK would "lack a legal basis" after Brexit?

My guess is that currently air travel between the UK and the US are covered by agreements and conventions between the US and the EU. Once the UK leaves the EU, they are no longer party to those agreements. Thus there is no legal basis until a replacement is put in place.

OK, I'm sure I'm showing my ignorance of international air travel and the laws relevant to it here, but what kind of agreements do you need?  On the US side, at least, I don't think there's anything making it illegal for an airline to fly from, say, NYC to London even without any trade agreements with the UK.

[Jacob]

OK, I'm sure I'm showing my ignorance of international air travel and the laws relevant to it here, but what kind of agreements do you need?  On the US side, at least, I don't think there's anything making it illegal for an airline to fly from, say, NYC to London even without any trade agreements with the UK.

A few things off the top of my head (I am no lawyer).

If you have a dispute with an airline company over something that happened in international airspace? What if the airline belongs to one nation, and the passenger to another? I expect this is governed by - and possibly administered by - various international bodies which the UK may no longer be part of post-Brexit if they're currently part of them via the EU. It's not, of course, that the UK can't get admittance to those bodies but it may take some time and require demonstrating compliance with a whole bunch of criteria.

How can you be certain that the aircraft is safe for travel? That it has had the required maintenance and repair? That the staff is operating with the right levels of training and rest to minimize risk? These things are governed by the FAA in the US. How are foreign aircrafts and staff judged to be in compliance? Most likely via reciprocity agreements through bodies that the UK will no longer be part of. Does the UK have the appropriate certifying bodies and regimes right now to regulate their aircraft to the satisfaction of the FAA? Quite possibly, but nonetheless the reciprocity agreement still has to be signed and implemented.

[Zanza]

I guess they can move officers from the airports to the land borders as air travel to the EU or US will lack a legal basis after Brexit.

Could you clarify why air travel between the US and the UK would "lack a legal basis" after Brexit?

This is the legal basis for US EU air travel.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU–US_Open_Skies_Agreement

[Jacob]

Your link is slightly borked. I think this is where you want it to go: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93US_Open_Skies_Agreement

[Josquius]

Anyone know how civil service recruitment has been going?
They really ought to have been many times multiplying the amount of British bureaucrats to get all this crap done in time.

[Josquius]

Wow. The bias of the media is truly shocking.
Corbyn was asked the question may refused to answer. Would he still vote remain.
He clearly said its a theoretical and there wont be a second referendum but I voted remain and haven't changed my mind.

....
Reports on this event claim he too refused to give a straight answer

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4663866/jeremy-corbyn-follows-theresa-may-in-refusing-to-say-he-would-back-brexit-in-a-second-eu-referendum/

[Maladict]

Wow. The bias of some media is truly shocking.

fyp

[Gups]

Wow. The bias of the media is truly shocking.
Corbyn was asked the question may refused to answer. Would he still vote remain.
He clearly said its a theoretical and there wont be a second referendum but I voted remain and haven't changed my mind.

....
Reports on this event claim he too refused to give a straight answer

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4663866/jeremy-corbyn-follows-theresa-may-in-refusing-to-say-he-would-back-brexit-in-a-second-eu-referendum/

Except that the Sun report is from before he said so but after his spokesman refused to say

[Gups]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/uncategorized/4670352/jeremy-corbyn-claims-he-is-still-a-remainer-and-would-not-back-brexit-if-there-was-a-second-referendum-today/amp/