Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

If the UK leaves and has to rejoin it will be on standard terms. All special treatment gone.
If however we can pull back from the abyss and avoid leaving, then I don't see much being lost.

Who would want to re-admit the UK after all this? By the end of these negotiations there'll be a lot of bad blood, and that will be before they start turning EU citizens into second class British ones over the EU's mistreatment of Britain.

[Josquius]

Those who care for the well being of the normal people who have been thoroughly fucked over by the neo libs attempt at a power grab?

[Tamas]

Those who care for the well being of the normal people who have been thoroughly fucked over by the neo libs attempt at a power grab?

It's normal people who voted for Brexit.

Like Shahib, my Uber driver from last weekend. He felt sorry that Brexit is turning out to be such a mess (he asked if Hungarians needed a visa to stay and I explained not yet), but he felt like he had to stop all those immigrants coming to the country and receiving free handouts, so he voted Leave.

[celedhring]

Those who care for the well being of the normal people who have been thoroughly fucked over by the neo libs attempt at a power grab?

It's normal people who voted for Brexit.

Like Shahib, my Uber driver from last weekend. He felt sorry that Brexit is turning out to be such a mess (he asked if Hungarians needed a visa to stay and I explained not yet), but he felt like he had to stop all those immigrants coming to the country and receiving free handouts, so he voted Leave.

Yeah, reminds me of a lot of separatists I know. "Yeah, thing has turned out to be a mess and not at all the happy Utopia politicians told us about, but WE HAD TO DO IT".

(Brexit and Catexit messaging has been eerily similar: take back control, European/Spanish elites stealing from hardworking Catalans/Britons, everything will be painless because they need us more than we need them, etc...)

[Josquius]

Those who care for the well being of the normal people who have been thoroughly fucked over by the neo libs attempt at a power grab?

It's normal people who voted for Brexit.

Like Shahib, my Uber driver from last weekend. He felt sorry that Brexit is turning out to be such a mess (he asked if Hungarians needed a visa to stay and I explained not yet), but he felt like he had to stop all those immigrants coming to the country and receiving free handouts, so he voted Leave.

They were conned. They aren't the ones behind this. The blame squarely lies with the elites.

Normal working people by and large voted remain (statistically working people majority voted remain) . Enough of them however were tricked into supporting the other side to make the difference.
This whole thing is not the will of the people. It never was. Until the referendum Europe was very low on the list of issues people cared about.
It was however top of the list for the racist minority and the neo thatcherites saw this as a brilliant opportunity to push forward with the deconstruction of the state (earning themselves a few million in the process).

[Richard Hakluyt]

The "people" are stupid ignorant arseholes. They should never have been consulted on the matter.

[The Larch]

Tyr, you should start stopping to absolve the British working class of its responsability. They're not little kids or naive saints who were fooled by devious elites.

[mongers]

Tyr, you should start stopping to absolve the British working class of its responsability. They're not little kids or naive saints who were fooled by devious elites.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation have an interesting report on who voted which way in the Brexit vote:

Brexit vote explained: poverty, low skills and lack of opportunities

Matthew Goodwin  Oliver Heath

This report provides unprecedented insight into the dynamics of the 2016 vote to leave the EU, showing how a lack of opportunity across the country led to Brexit.

Devoting specific attention to data on the roles of poverty, place and individual characteristics driving the leave vote, this report shows how Britain was divided along economic, educational and social lines.

In the aftermath of the vote few studies have considered both individual and area-level drivers of the vote to leave the EU. This report reviews existing research, examines new data and considers implications for the wider debate.

Key findings:
- The poorest households, with incomes of less than £20,000 per year, were much more likely to support leaving the EU than the wealthiest households, as were the unemployed, people in low-skilled and manual occupations, people who feel that their financial situation has worsened, and those with no qualifications.

- Groups vulnerable to poverty were more likely to support Brexit. Age, income and education matter, though it is educational inequality that was the strongest driver. Other things being equal, support for leave was 30 percentage points higher among those with GCSE qualifications or below than it was for people with a degree. In contrast, support for leave was just 10 points higher among those on less than £20,000 per year than it was among those with incomes of more than £60,000 per year, and 20 points higher among those aged 65 than those aged 25.

- Support for Brexit varied not only between individuals but also between areas. People with all levels of qualifications were more likely to vote leave in low-skill areas compared with high-skill areas. However, this effect was stronger for the more highly qualified. In low-skilled communities the difference in support for leave between graduates and those with GCSEs was 20 points. In high-skilled communities it was over 40 points.  In low-skill areas the proportion of A-level holders voting leave was closer to that of people with low-skills. In high-skill areas their vote was much more similar to graduates.

- Groups in Britain who have been 'left behind' by rapid economic change and feel cut adrift from the mainstream consensus were the most likely to support Brexit. These voters face a 'double whammy'. While their lack of qualifications put them at a significant disadvantage in the modern economy, they are also being further marginalised in society by the lack of opportunities that faced in their low-skilled communities. This will make it extremely difficult for the left behind to adapt and prosper in future.

.....
In the immediate aftermath of the referendum our earlier work (Goodwin and Heath, forthcoming, see Reference notes below) examined data from 380 of the 382 local authorities across the UK, linking this to information from the 2011 census. We found that support for Brexit was strongest in areas where a large percentage of the population did not have any qualifications and were ill-equipped to thrive amid a post-industrial and increasingly competitive economy that favours those with skills and is operating in the broader context of globalisation. For instance, 15 of the 20 'least educated' areas voted to leave while all of the 20 'most highly educated' areas voted to remain. Support for Brexit was also stronger than average in areas with a larger number of pensioners. Of the 20 youngest authorities 16 voted to remain, but of the 20 oldest authorities 19 voted to leave
......

Full article here, worth a read as it gives some interesting insights into modern Britain:

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities

[Gups]

Tyr's on a roll. Neo libs are brexiteers! The workers have been brainwashed by the running dogs of capitalism! War is peace!

[Gups]

Normal working people by and large voted remain (statistically working people majority voted remain) . Enough of them however were tricked into supporting the other side to make the difference.
This whole thing is not the will of the people. It never was. Until the referendum Europe was very low on the list of issues people cared about.
It was however top of the list for the racist minority and the neo thatcherites saw this as a brilliant opportunity to push forward with the deconstruction of the state (earning themselves a few million in the process).

Just do a fucking google search before you post.

Poor people, working class people, people in the north vote Leave

Rich people, graduates, Londoners voted Remain.

[mongers]

Tyr's on a roll. Neo libs are brexiteers! The workers have been brainwashed by the running dogs of capitalism! War is peace!

Funny thing is the limited campaigning I did on the ground in the run up to the vote, closely followed what was said in the above report; so if 'you'd' spent anytime talking to ordinary Brits about the vote, one would broadly know who was going to vote which way.

[garbon]

The "people" are stupid ignorant arseholes. They should never have been consulted on the matter.

Amen.

[Gups]

The "people" are stupid ignorant arseholes. They should never have been consulted on the matter.

And certainly not just to get the Tories out of a tight spot.

[Tamas]

And even if consulted, the notion to have such a dramatic decision decided on a simple majority would be laughable in any democracy.


But this is all water under the bridge.

Northern Ireland will become some kind of a protectorate to avoid the forming of a hard border, but will still see some re-ignition of hostilities due to the Unionists freaking the fuck out over ending up with more ties with the Republic than the UK.

The UK will remain part of the European regulatory offices that make sense but otherwise will be trading under something resembling the Canada deal. Mostly because it will be politically impossible to not control migration.

But of course the economy will need cheap labour more than ever before, so the only politically feasible choice will be to severely restrict migration from the EU, but ease up on it coming from the third world

Hopefully it will stop there, and there won't be any punitive/demeaning laws made against EU citizens living in the UK, to placate the nationalists.

Which is somewhat unlikely, as any deal pushing the UK out of the single market will result in at the very least a short term recession, which will hit the middle class as well due to the fall in property prices, the rise of interest rates, dwindling immigration of workers who can get decent salaries, and a resulting crumbling/decline of the whole landlord business.
The downturn will be blamed on the Tories in government and people will turn to UKIP-style people.

Or to Corybn. Those two extremes will battle it out to shape post-Brexit British history.

And after 10-20 years of failed economic policies, some semblance of common sense will be reestablished.

[Gups]

Thank you Nostratamas

You don't have any more idea of what will happen that, say, Teresa May.