Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

As I understand it, quick, certain, and visible consequences for breaking the law is the most effective deterrent (more so than severity of punishment, for exammple).

On this government is talking about courts running 24/7 again.

And on your point specifically reports that Newcastle Crown Court is going to bring sentencing for some of the people convicted from Sunderland forward from September to Friday. I think for your reasons.

Although seeing that in other ways. I've been following local press in Liverpool today as the magistrates roll through charge sheets. One thing that's striking is the number of basically career criminals - most extreme example was someone in his twenties with 16 previous convictions (and while I don't agree with three strikes and you're out - I do think questions should be asked once you're in double figures ). But another is at least one example of someone with no previous conviction being remanded by the magistrate until sentencing - which is rare. From what I've seen from local reporters and law types, someone with no previous conviction for this type of offence (violent disorder) would expect to be bailed.

Also had the first conviction for stirring up racial hatred for someone online encouraging attacks but no evidence they actually participated in any attacks - also remanded for sentencing. I suspect people are going to find the limits of their online anonymity.

Similarly government has stood up another 2,000 plus riot police, but also apparently making officers with other specialties available - particularly organised crime, cybercrime and counter-terrorism. It's not clear what they're needed for but my assumption is to go after the networks (often online) and try to roll them up.

Indeed. After all, they want to change policy, people's rights by violence don't they? If a bunch hooded-up Islamists were pulling the same crap while yelling Allahu Akbar, they would be handled as terrorists, so why not these people?

Apparently one charge already - it was from Neil Basu who was former counter-terrorism police chief. As I say not sure what the legal definition is but this from the Director of Public Prosecutions definitely makes it sound like it should be available:

"Where you have organised groups planning activity for the purposes of advancing [an] ideology... planning really, really serious disruption then yes, we will consider terrorism offences."

I think it gets that there's multiple layers going on. I think at the core you have the really hard-core far right (organised online not like the EDL) - for example reports of lists of "targets". Then a looser group who are being activated online with more generic comms about a march/a protest etc who can then be directed/influenced in person by the more hard-core. And then I think there is a significant proportion of the opportunistic types - from Liverpool courts today a few like the guy with 16 previous convictions, but also a lot who are basically saying they spent the afternoon drinking and then joined in (and a fairly significant number being charged with both violent disorder etc plus possession of coke).

Separately I see that after saying the UK is on the brink of a civil war (responding to a racist post that was untrue), Elon Musk is now using the "two tier Keir" line which the far-right have pushed.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Something totally different though still England, as an intermezzo...
What is going on with this 'doggy ice cream' I'm seeing where we are in England right now?
Ice cream for dogs, for real? When did this become a thing?

[Josquius]

Similarly government has stood up another 2,000 plus riot police, but also apparently making officers with other specialties available - particularly organised crime, cybercrime and counter-terrorism. It's not clear what they're needed for but my assumption is to go after the networks (often online) and try to roll them up.

Well I've just done a little wee.

Separately I see that after saying the UK is on the brink of a civil war (responding to a racist post that was untrue), Elon Musk is now using the "two tier Keir" line which the far-right have pushed.

I've seen that around a lot.
It's bizare considering as far as there are double standards its usually the white right who get off lighter.

Something totally different though still England, as an intermezzo...
What is going on with this 'doggy ice cream' I'm seeing where we are in England right now?
Ice cream for dogs, for real? When did this become a thing?

Yes.
Thousands of years ago?... I dunno. But a long while.
 Early this century as something commonish I guess. 1800s as something a random crazy did one time (now watch as it turns out ice cream was only invented in 1903...)

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It's just a weird/unusual concept imho. I've not seen this in Belgium, but here it just kinda 'jumped' into view at the spots they're selling icecream.
Now I'll be on the lookout once we're back home.

[Sheilbh]

I've seen that around a lot.
It's bizare considering as far as there are double standards its usually the white right who get off lighter.

It is worth remembering that less than 5% of people support a lenient approach to the rioters at the minute. So anything you're seeing sympathising or justifying is very much fringe.

On the two tier stuff the only point I really have any sympathy with are some Jewish commentators pointing out that Jewish community centres, schools, synagogues etc have required extra security for months and that has been normalised very quickly. I'm seeing those people show full solidarity with Muslims now, but it should have always been an issue that Jews felt unsafe in our society.

I also think austerity hit policing and criminal justice a lot. So I mentioned before but the rates of "day to day" crime like shoplifting are at record levels. I think at a base level there was a degree of criminality that was just not criminal. I think that may have made some of the rioters - like your 16 previous convictions man - a little relaxed about the consequences they might face. But the public hate disorder like this and it's a challenge to the state - plus I think Starmer's the worst PM imaginable if you want to get away with rioting - so I would expect pretty swift arrests, prosecutions and exemplary sentences. For example so far (as of this afternoon) over 400 arrested, over 100 charged with most admitting guilt and the first sentences this week.

Again separately because I hate that this has overshadowed what was an absolute tragedy - but all the children who were injured in the attack in Southport have now been discharged from hospital.

[Sheilbh]

Separately but maybe linked to austerity - from everything I've seen all of these riots have been at most a few hundred people. Everywhere there's been counter-protests, they have outnumbered the far-right. See this clip from Plymouth which was the main area impacted yesterday:

It's relatively small groups causing a lot of problems. I feel like at some point, probably because of austerity, the police sort of forgot or no longer have the numbers to police protests that they think are getting violent in the way they used to. In particular all of these far-right groups look absolutely ripe for kettling and I'm really surprised it's not been used. As someone who went to a few protests in the 2000s and early 2010s - though I never experienced it myself - that seemed like a really standard tactic at the slightest hint that things might turn. I think the police overused it for protests that weren't disorderly but it seems ripe for the way these riots are starting. My best guess they just don't have the (trained) numbers anymore or they've sort of lost the capacity through austerity?

[Jacob]

It's just a weird/unusual concept imho. I've not seen this in Belgium, but here it just kinda 'jumped' into view at the spots they're selling icecream.
Now I'll be on the lookout once we're back home.

It's been a thing on social media for a while - I've mostly come across it (online) in the context of American drivethroughs.

[Jacob]

It is worth remembering that less than 5% of people support a lenient approach to the rioters at the minute. So anything you're seeing sympathising or justifying is very much fringe.

Could be a pretty good opportunity for Starmer to cement a law-and-order Labour first impression.

[Sheilbh]

Could be a pretty good opportunity for Starmer to cement a law-and-order Labour first impression.

I agree. This is dreadful and what we've seen is sickening. But I think there is a don't let a crisis go to waste element here.

Ultimately no-one has ever lost money betting on the authoritarianism of the British public - I think I've already seen a poll with majority support for sending in the army.

[Josquius]

A small anecdote. But apparently the wave of hate has gone beyond the riots?
A woman who volunteers at a local non profit in Newcastle my gf supports wears a hijab. She has had to stop volunteering as she says she can no longer leave the house without receiving abuse and feels really unsafe.

[Sheilbh]

Really sad - I think stuff like this is liberating for the worst people and their worst instincts.

Partly why I think it needs a very hard crackdown/zero tolerance approach. There needs to be a return to some deterrent.

[Grey Fox]

I saw footage of Lush store being looted. When a fancy soap store gets looted, the problem might not be where you think it is.

[Sheilbh]

The base politics don't matter too much. But on quite how fringe the online far-right influencers defending these riots are, just 7% support them to 85% opposition (75% "strongly oppose"). On party breakdown 1% of Lib Dems support the rioters, 3% of Labour voters, 9% of Tory voters - and even for Reform it only climbs to 21% (75%+ opposed).

I think they're really misjudging the mood and will quite possibly (hopefully) end up marginalising themselves - especially if there's law enforcement action on the other side on the networks actually involved in organising some of the disorder.

Obviously it's essential this is ended and the participants (online or off) are prosecuted and he'll want that anyway, but I think there'd be a lot of support if Starmer is seen to crack down effectively here.

And on that riot police are apparently going to be deployed on motorways across the country so they can travel quickly to respond if anything kicks off.

On specific measures the country supports this looks a lot like 2011:


After 2011 despite police not being able to lawfully use a water cannon in GB, Johnson bought one as London Mayor - Theresa May as Home Secretary effectively made it useless by retaining the ban. I don't think police in GB have ever used rubber bullets and I don't think they've used tear gas in decades, but both are permitted (I think). All three have been used in Northern Ireland and are lawful for the police there. I think that's probably right and tear gas and rubber bullets should only be used in really extreme circumstances. But I feel like there probably is a place for water cannon with smartwater and I'm not really sure why it's not allowed.

[Josquius]

Seems odd water cannon are banned but tear gas and rubber bullets aren't.
I know high pressure water can be super dangerous but more so than the other two?
And yeah. If they make it less of a cannon and more of a spray to tag people that sounds good.

[Richard Hakluyt]

At the moment the police are treating the rioters with kid gloves but there are plenty of escalatory tactics left in their locker. I think they are right to start off low key, brutal tactics would only alienate more of the far-right base and exacerbate the situation. However, I think it would be foolish to underestimate what the British state is capable of doing if the situation becomes more difficult; I'm sure that they will use whatever is needed and that could potentially include internment camps, curfews and troops.