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NCAA Football, 2016

Started by grumbler, February 09, 2016, 06:42:36 PM

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Valmy

#510
October 24, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 24, 2016, 08:38:14 AM
WVU is in the top 10 :w00t:  for now.  Holgorsen will find a way to lose 4 of the last 6 games and they'll end up unranked at 8-4 and go to a bowl with a weird name but halfway decent payout.

WVU held the most unstoppable offensive juggernaut of all time to 17 points. Or at least one that was unstoppable when playing against Oklahoma.

The funny part is that despite Mahomes' ridiculous game Tech only lead once, by one point, for twenty whole seconds before their defense blew the lead.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

grumbler

#511
October 25, 2016, 02:35:14 PM Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 02:40:03 PM by grumbler
Bill Connolly's latest S&P+ numbers for defenses (points an average team could be expected to score against this defense) Top FIve:

Quote5. Wisconsin (12.4 Adj. PPG)
4. Alabama (11.9)
3. Florida (11.3)
2. Clemson (11.0)
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1. Michigan (0.8)

That's not a typo, and those numbers are opponent-adjusted and exclude garbage time. 

Edit: The difference between #1 Michigan and #2 Clemson are greater than the difference between #2 Clemson and #19 Temple.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/25/13401526/michigan-defense-2016-stats-jabrill-peppers-don-brown-jim-harbaugh?utm_campaign=sbn_billc&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Valmy

#512
October 25, 2016, 02:36:40 PM
Have they faced the mighty Patrick Mahomes? If not it doesn't count.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

grumbler

#513
October 25, 2016, 02:39:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 25, 2016, 02:36:40 PM
Have they faced the mighty Patrick Mahomes? If not it doesn't count.

Texas certainly wasn't facing him.  Facing away from him, I could believe.  :P
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Valmy

#514
October 25, 2016, 02:45:41 PM Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 02:52:02 PM by Valmy
Quote from: grumbler on October 25, 2016, 02:39:33 PM
Texas certainly wasn't facing him.  Facing away from him, I could believe.  :P

True. They don't face him until November 5th. And I have a feeling they will be glancing at him as he runs by their gap exposing inept pass rush.







Yakkety sax and all that.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

alfred russel

#515
October 25, 2016, 02:48:20 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 25, 2016, 02:35:14 PM
Bill Connolly's latest S&P+ numbers for defenses (points an average team could be expected to score against this defense) Top FIve:

Quote5. Wisconsin (12.4 Adj. PPG)
4. Alabama (11.9)
3. Florida (11.3)
2. Clemson (11.0)
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1. Michigan (0.8)

That's not a typo, and those numbers are opponent-adjusted and exclude garbage time. 

Edit: The difference between #1 Michigan and #2 Clemson are greater than the difference between #2 Clemson and #19 Temple.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/25/13401526/michigan-defense-2016-stats-jabrill-peppers-don-brown-jim-harbaugh?utm_campaign=sbn_billc&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

But they have played 5 Power 5 teams and given up:

28 points
10 points
7 points
0 points
8 points

I think the S&P+ ratings are fucked up.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

grumbler

#516
October 25, 2016, 03:26:25 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 25, 2016, 02:48:20 PM
But they have played 5 Power 5 teams and given up:

28 points
10 points
7 points
0 points
8 points

I think the S&P+ ratings are fucked up.

They played 5 Power 5 teams and gave up, in non-garbage-time scores:
28
0
7
0
0

Plus two games against non-P5 schools that both rank above the median among college football teams.

I think your understanding of S&P+ ratings is fucked up.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

alfred russel

#517
October 25, 2016, 04:01:31 PM
I don't think so. Giving up 35 is way more than a point per game on average. Next week Michigan plays sparty, a below average P5 team. The line is ~24, with an over under of 54. That implies an expected score of about Michigan 39, Sparty 15.

It seems either Vegas is missing something, or S&P+ ratings are, because they are out of alignment.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

katmai

#518
October 25, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
What constitutes "garbage" time? :unsure:
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

alfred russel

#519
October 25, 2016, 05:36:57 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 25, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
What constitutes "garbage" time? :unsure:


Any just definition should include any point in the game that the Notre Dame defense is on the field, which I guess means ND should be at 0.0 ppg.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Valmy

#520
October 25, 2016, 06:06:19 PM
I was about to say 'when Texas is defending 3rd down' but that works to  :lol:
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

dps

#521
October 25, 2016, 06:40:10 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 25, 2016, 02:48:20 PM

But they have played 5 Power 5 teams and given up:

28 points
10 points
7 points
0 points
8 points

I think the S&P+ ratings are fucked up.

I think that they also look at how many points a team's opponents scored in their other games, but I don't know their exact methodology.

katmai

#522
October 25, 2016, 06:43:32 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 25, 2016, 05:36:57 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 25, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
What constitutes "garbage" time? :unsure:


Any just definition should include any point in the game that the Notre Dame defense is on the field, which I guess means ND should be at 0.0 ppg.
I was just curious as UDub vs it's P5 opponents have been up by avg 27-4 by halftime and  playing 2nd and 3rd string by middle of 3rd quarter in each game besides the Arizona game.
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

grumbler

#523
October 25, 2016, 10:07:39 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 25, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
What constitutes "garbage" time? :unsure:

Second half when the score is more than two touchdowns in the winning team's favor, and never gets closer.  By garbage time the team in the lead is playing second and third string players and so the game no longer indicates the true strength of the two teams.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

grumbler

#524
October 25, 2016, 10:10:48 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 25, 2016, 06:43:32 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 25, 2016, 05:36:57 PM
Quote from: katmai on October 25, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
What constitutes "garbage" time? :unsure:


Any just definition should include any point in the game that the Notre Dame defense is on the field, which I guess means ND should be at 0.0 ppg.
I was just curious as UDub vs it's P5 opponents have been up by avg 27-4 by halftime and  playing 2nd and 3rd string by middle of 3rd quarter in each game besides the Arizona game.

The second half of almost all those games are garbage time and aren't tracked by the advanced stats.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!
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