NCAA Football, 2016

[grumbler]

There is a lot more to it. ND gets good recruiting rankings, but the good recruits skew toward the offense under Kelly. I've always felt that ND's recruiting rankings get overrated because of the way it recruits nationally (stars get given out based on measurables and how the guys play in high school games at ages 15-16, but coaches near a player will likely know more, and adjust recruiting accordingly--ie, if there are two 4 star guys in Georgia, and UGA and Notre Dame both take one, I'd suspect more times than not UGA gets the better one).

This makes no sense.  First, the few players that get ranked before the end of their junior season get re-ranked any number of times afterward, so no one is attending ND based on their ranking as a 15 or 16 year old.  It is almost certainly true that a college recruiter who knows a high school coach well will get more info on that coach's players than someone who doesn't know him well, but that's an issue common to all football programs, and all football programs aren't underperforming like ND's defense.

But also recruiting is just a crapshoot. The ND guys on defense may have solid measurables and lots of high school stars, but those stars were generally set when the players were 15-16 judging how they played against high schoolers. Lots of guys don't adjust to the speed and challenges of the college game, and it isn't just coaching or guys "refusing to harness their talents". I don't think it is coming up snake eyes on a bunch of recruits (odds of that 1 in 36), but more like coming up on the wrong end of a coin toss. 

Craps aren't played with coins, so your analogy fits my example a lot better than yours. 

I don't buy that ND has just gotten unlucky on all of their defensive recruits.  If you are arguing that they chose their recruits poorly and so were vulnerable to some bad luck, I guess that's plausible.

[alfred russel]

This makes no sense.  First, the few players that get ranked before the end of their junior season get re-ranked any number of times afterward, so no one is attending ND based on their ranking as a 15 or 16 year old.

Yeah, and woe to the recruiting service that changes a 5 star recruit to a 3 star in the player's senior season. Sophomores and juniors are 15 and 16 - those are performances that go into the ratings, subject to calibration.

It is almost certainly true that a college recruiter who knows a high school coach well will get more info on that coach's players than someone who doesn't know him well, but that's an issue common to all football programs, and all football programs aren't underperforming like ND's defense.

Deep insight that all football programs aren't underperforming. However, I'll point out that through 4 weeks, college football teams have been rather mediocre--they have an aggregate record of .500. 

[grumbler]

Yeah, and woe to the recruiting service that changes a 5 star recruit to a 3 star in the player's senior season. Sophomores and juniors are 15 and 16 - those are performances that go into the ratings, subject to calibration.

No, most 15 and 16 year-olds are not ranked.   Look at the 247 database for 2018 recruits; they have only about 2500 even named, and only 300 or so of those have ratings.

Deep insight that all football programs aren't underperforming. However, I'll point out that through 4 weeks, college football teams have been rather mediocre--they have an aggregate record of .500.   

Yes, the average team is average. Thank you,Captain Obvious.  Your work here is done.

Now, if you really believe that "underperforming" means "average," I will believe that you have a degree from ND.  Some teams are delighted to be average.

[alfred russel]

No, most 15 and 16 year-olds are not ranked.   Look at the 247 database for 2018 recruits; they have only about 2500 even named, and only 300 or so of those have ratings.

The season isn't over. If you wait until March, I bet the vast majority of future 4 and 5 star recruits will have ratings.

At the same time, I just did a search of the rivals database, and in 2016 there were only 389 4 and 5 star players. Since the standouts get rated first, it is possible most 2018 4 and 5 stars have already been rated, if 300 have been. A search shows that in 2018 there are already 252 with 4 or 5 stars. 

[grumbler]

Here's a fun little website designed to prove (if possible) that any given team is better than any other given team, using the transitive principle:
http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/default.asp?sport=CFB&winner=Michigan&loser=Notre+Dame&year=2016&method=2

Michigan Notre Dame

Div I - FBS   Michigan   is better than   California   because Michigan beat Hawaii 63 - 3
while California only beat Hawaii 51 - 31
Div I - FBS   California   beat   Texas   50 - 43
Div I - FBS   Texas   beat   Notre Dame   50 - 47

Therefore, Michigan is better than Notre Dame in 2016

as shown in 3 rounds by a combined score of 194 - 144.


It isn't a miracle worker, though:

Notre Dame Michigan
Sorry, I can't show that Notre Dame is better than Michigan in 2016.

[alfred russel]

Sort of like how Michigan State is better than Michigan in 7 of the last 8 years, and Ohio State is also better than than Michigan in 7 of the last 8 years?

Oh, hold on, it isn't like that at all, those are actually results on the field.

[grumbler]

Sort of like how Michigan State is better than Michigan in 7 of the last 8 years, and Ohio State is also better than than Michigan in 7 of the last 8 years?

Oh, hold on, it isn't like that at all, those are actually results on the field.

  Notre Dame loses a couple of games and you become Grumpy Old Man?

That site is a joke.  Deliberately a joke.  Obviously deliberately a joke, to anyone with a sense of humor.  Talk about Whoosh! 

[Ed Anger]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT

[grumbler]

This is absolutely brilliant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDtQymNO4eQ

[katmai]

UDub looking good. Now to see how they fare next week can Ducks in Autzen.

[CountDeMoney]

Sign behind Corso on GameDay in Clemson "Clinton's servers are stronger than L-Ville's O-Line", "SAM PONDER PET MY MULLET"

[MadBurgerMaker]

   Val: "And people say extra points are boring"

Texas special teams are really really bad.  Defense isn't any better.

[Valmy]

That was probably the worst half of football I have ever seen Texas play on defense and I have endured multiple 60 point plus beat downs by OU. But Texas made up for it with epically shitty special teams.

[MadBurgerMaker]

That was probably the worst half of football I have ever seen Texas play on defense and I have endured multiple 60 point plus beat downs by OU. But Texas made up for it with epically shitty special teams.

Yeah it was a really...impressive.....effort by both of those squads, but I think I have to give the shit trophy to special teams.  Three XPs blocked, one back for 2, and a missed FG.  That's another level. 

[Valmy]

On the bright side you have to be pretty good on offense to suffer three blocked extra points in one half!