2016 - The Global Economic .... What?

[mongers]

I will wait until someone who has the slightest idea of what's going on comments in this thread.

Do we even know for certain that something is going on?

Certainty typically comes only after the 'event'.

[Barrister]

I will wait until someone who has the slightest idea of what's going on comments in this thread.

Do we even know for certain that something is going on?

What we know:

-oil at lowest prices since 2002-2003
-the baltic shipping index is really low, indicating little global shipping
-hard to tell, but bad stuff happening in the Chinese economy - stock market tanking, maybe imposing currency controls

And that's it.  It's stuff the perma-bear, buy-gold-and-canned-goods crowd is using to point to the coming armageddon, but nothing to get overly excited about.

Unless you live in oil country, or China.

[MadImmortalMan]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

[Barrister]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

Tends to say very little about the health of the overall economy.

The US created almost 300,000 jobs last month - a much better sign of a robust economy.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

Tends to say very little about the health of the overall economy.

The US created almost 300,000 jobs last month - a much better sign of a robust economy.

The problem is the US economy is creating hundreds of thousands of jobs per month without increasing average hourly earnings very much, a sign that the vast majority are low-quality jobs and that the currently-employed are increasingly worse-off.

[MadImmortalMan]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

Tends to say very little about the health of the overall economy.

The US created almost 300,000 jobs last month - a much better sign of a robust economy.

You're right. Traders like to think the markets reflect the future rather than the present. But in reality even that is often wrong.

[Caliga]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

I wasn't following the market today (too busy) but around 10 am I started getting all kinds of low stock price alerts, some of which I set like ten years ago and totally forgot about.

[crazy canuck]

Markets are doing rather poorly in the last few trading days.

Tends to say very little about the health of the overall economy.

The US created almost 300,000 jobs last month - a much better sign of a robust economy.

The problem is the US economy is creating hundreds of thousands of jobs per month without increasing average hourly earnings very much, a sign that the vast majority are low-quality jobs and that the currently-employed are increasingly worse-off.

Agreed.  That is the most troubling long term trend.   It is also happening here to some extent although our, until now, robust commodity extraction sector has masked the problem.  The good news for us at least is now that the loonie has collapsed non commodity extraction based businesses are beginning to thrive and even non energy commodity producers who service the US will get a bit of a boost.   But for us to fully recover the US has to recover.

[The Minsky Moment]

US

+ the stock market has been going down because of earnings weakness, not just change in sentiment.
+ Job growth remains solid but the trend is definitely heading down.
+ Now looks more and more like the Fed tightened prematurely.
Bottom line - US may avoid recession but it is unlikely to be an engine for growth. 

Europe:  The ECB finally got in gear last year but took a cautious line at the last meeting despite continuing lowflation.  There are still big coordination problems in the EZ and the politics aren't getting easier to manage.  Bottom line: not optimistic about prospects for improvement.

China:  the wildcard.  Pace BB - the trade/GDP ratio for China is above 40% - not enormously high compared to smaller countries but quite respectable compared to the US (low 20s).  The wild commodity cycle is testament to China's global economic impact.    It is clear that growth is trending down.  The best that can be said is that the Party will do everything it can to cushion it. 

[MadImmortalMan]

The best that can be said is that the Party will do everything it can to cushion it.

The question about that is whether the Party's intervention will prove positive or negative in the end.

[crazy canuck]

The best that can be said is that the Party will do everything it can to cushion it.

The question about that is whether the Party's intervention will prove positive or negative in the end.

But the Party has been intervening all along. 

[MadImmortalMan]

The best that can be said is that the Party will do everything it can to cushion it.

The question about that is whether the Party's intervention will prove positive or negative in the end.

But the Party has been intervening all along.

And look where it's got them.

[PJL]

I suspect that because of increased immigration, the NAIRU level is now lower than it has been historically. So instead of 5% for countries like the UK/US, it's probably more like 3-4%. In other words, I doubt real wages will rise significantly until unemployment hits those levels. In that respect the Fed rate rise was probably premature.

A similar effect was observed in the years after World War 2, except that was caused by ex-servicemen joining civvy street.

[Fate]

The best that can be said is that the Party will do everything it can to cushion it.

The question about that is whether the Party's intervention will prove positive or negative in the end.

But the Party has been intervening all along.

And look where it's got them.

Second biggest economy in the world? And shortly to be the biggest in the next decade...

[DGuller]

And look where it's got them.

Where?