2016 - The Global Economic .... What?

[mongers]

Well, now they're exporting their strategy with this New Silk Road thing they put in the latest "5 year plan". Ghost cities for all.

Build the cities and the people will come?

[The Minsky Moment]

China looks better if you only look at numbers post 1980, but that ignores the fact it was the same regime before that.

No the Mao regime is quite different from the Deng regime.

[Camerus]

Also, there's the slight problem that the current 6%+ GDP growth figure seems to be based on propaganda/careerism of local officials rather than on reality.

[Eddie Teach]

No the Mao regime is quite different from the Deng regime.

Mostly the same people involved.

I'm not disputing that Deng went off in a new direction.

[Admiral Yi]

Also, there's the slight problem that the current 6%+ GDP growth figure seems to be based on propaganda/careerism of local officials rather than on reality.

Intelesting.

[Richard Hakluyt]

China is set fair for the middle-income trap, their workforce is decreasing and their dependency ratio gets worse, they are good at making obvious products but there is little creativity.

[LaCroix]

 

I have six months to decide whether I should risk returning to oil country or disappoint my summer employers by looking elsewhere

[Barrister]

I have six months to decide whether I should risk returning to oil country or disappoint my summer employers by looking elsewhere

You have a guaranteed job?  I would stick with it.  This depression in oil prices isn't going to quickly reverse itself, but it certainly isn't going to last forever either.  These things sort themselves out.

[The Minsky Moment]

There are five administrative districts in China with per capital GDP (PPP) over 20K.  The combined population of those provinces is around 200 million.   So one way of looking at it is within China there is a country the size of Japan at the development level of Malaysia and within striking distance of Korea if it can keep growth going at the current 6.5% rate.   Those districts BTW don't include the enormous Guangdong and Shandong provinces - another 200 million people - which have some very developed cities in them, and  that as a whole currently sit around 17.5 K, i.e. around the level of Mexico.

It's also true that around 400M Chinese are still in grinding rural poverty.  The PRC is a very unequal country, both across space and across classes.  But there is a very sizable upper end  that is already quite developed.

[mongers]

There are five administrative districts in China with per capital GDP (PPP) over 20K.  The combined population of those provinces is around 200 million.   So one way of looking at it is within China there is a country the size of Japan at the development level of Malaysia and within striking distance of Korea if it can keep growth going at the current 6.5% rate.   Those districts BTW don't include the enormous Guangdong and Shandong provinces - another 200 million people - which have some very developed cities in them, and  that as a whole currently sit around 17.5 K, i.e. around the level of Mexico.

It's also true that around 400M Chinese are still in grinding rural poverty.  The PRC is a very unequal country, both across space and across classes.  But there is a very sizable upper end  that is already quite developed.

Thanks for that JR, an interesting way of looking at it. 

[grumbler]

There are five administrative districts in China with per capital GDP (PPP) over 20K.  The combined population of those provinces is around 200 million.   So one way of looking at it is within China there is a country the size of Japan at the development level of Malaysia and within striking distance of Korea if it can keep growth going at the current 6.5% rate.   Those districts BTW don't include the enormous Guangdong and Shandong provinces - another 200 million people - which have some very developed cities in them, and  that as a whole currently sit around 17.5 K, i.e. around the level of Mexico.

It's also true that around 400M Chinese are still in grinding rural poverty.  The PRC is a very unequal country, both across space and across classes.  But there is a very sizable upper end  that is already quite developed.

There is a PBS documentary called "The Last Train Home" which I use in my Asia Studies class.  It describes what the Chinese producer calls "China A" and "China B" very well.  China A is first-world, China B third world.  There are stringent laws to prevent any Chinese from trying to emigrate from China B to China A.  The film describes how residents of China B deal with being guest workers in China A.  It's kinda like the Pakistanis in Dubai.

[LaCroix]

You have a guaranteed job?  I would stick with it.  This depression in oil prices isn't going to quickly reverse itself, but it certainly isn't going to last forever either.  These things sort themselves out.

well, I turned down their offer because I first wanted to pursue a one-year temporary job post-graduation. I'd like another temporary job right after that one, but the firm wants me back and I feel kinda bad further delaying things. if I went back, it'd be either 2017+ or 2019+ start. if this requires a decade long recovery (most pessimistic estimate I've seen)... oy vey

[Admiral Yi]

well, I turned down their offer because I first wanted to pursue a one-year temporary job post-graduation. I'd like another temporary job right after that one, but the firm wants me back and I feel kinda bad further delaying things. if I went back, it'd be either 2017+ or 2019+ start. if this requires a decade long recovery (most pessimistic estimate I've seen)... oy vey

How would a shale bust affect you directly?

[LaCroix]

How would a shale bust affect you directly?

depends. in the short term, a bust leads to increased litigation. long term, less business, but very few graduates want to live out there (those who do are either from the area or can't find jobs elsewhere). I originally went to oil country because the amount of work there meant substantive work for everyone, even summer interns

[Josquius]

Shell profits down 85%, US messing with interest rates....
Doooooooom