Baseball 2016

[The Minsky Moment]

A very large number of players would have to start behaving in such a fashion to raise the average by that much. 538 counters that argument in detail in its analysis.

They don't counter the argument.  They don't address the change in BB rates at all.  They admit that K rates are up but discount it because K rates were steady last year, which is not directly relevant to the question of why exit velocity is higher this year.

Note the the finding of higher exit velocity comes from Alan Schwartz, who addresses the juice ball theory: http://www.hardballtimes.com/exit-speed-and-home-runs/

In particular:

Is the increase in home runs an indication that the baseball is "juiced"? Arthur and Lindbergh speculated about that in their 538 article, even going so far as to employ the Sport Sciences Laboratory at Washington State to measure the so-called Coefficient of Restitution (COR) of some baseballs.  . . .In their limited sample of a dozen baseballs each from 2014 and from the 2015 postseason, they found the latter sample had a COR about 0.003 higher, which is barely at the level of statistical significance.

. . . to obtain a change in exit speed by 1.5 mph would require a change of COR of 0.012. Such a change would easily be observed in laboratory measurements. The preceding numerical exercise should only be considered as "intelligent estimates," not hard cold facts. Nevertheless, they are useful when considering the juiced ball issue.

He then added an addendum:

There are lots of readers out there who would like to attribute the increase in home runs to a "juiced baseball," especially since it seems to be highly correlated with an increase in exit speed. So I decided to take one more look at the data  . . .While there is a clear increase in mean exit speed for launch angles in the home run sweet spot, 200-350, the mean exit speeds are essentially identical for line-drive type angles, 00 to 100. This is not what I would expect to find if the ball were indeed juiced. If anything, I would expect the coefficient of restitution to have a greater effect on the line drives, which are generally more "squared up" than fly balls, as one can see from the higher average exit speed. This does not bode well for the juiced ball theory.

If there is one certainty in baseball journalism it is that any observed increase in HR rates will inevitably lead to speculation about juiced baseballs.  Historically however, that is rarely the actual cause.

[sbr]

Ad the Mariners bought in today's Seattle Times

[The Minsky Moment]

Yankees throw in the 2016 towel and within a matter of days assemble a top flight minor league system.
Cashman gets some flak but his acquisition and flip of Chapman was impressive.
ARod, Sabathia, and Teixeira all come off the books at the end of 2017
Just in time for the arrival of Harper and Machado on the FA market . . .

[CountDeMoney]

Fuck you.

[The Minsky Moment]

Don't be a hater. 

With the latest trades, Yankees are probably around #3 in payroll.  Next year likely lower, especially if they can ditch McCann's contract.

[sbr]

A-Rod is retiring.  On Friday which seems like a strange time to do it.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's organizationally driven

[sbr]

It's organizationally driven

Yeah I saw that later.  I guess they wanted to give him a Friday night home game as a send off?

In other news Ichiro got his 3000th MLB hit today.  One of 7 with 3k hits and 500 stolen bases; one of 4 with 3k hits and 10 gold gloves. And he didn't come over to the States until he was 27.

He was/is an amazing player but for all of his talents (great average, great defensive player with amazing arm, great speed and base runner) he sure didn't seem to do much to help his teams win.  He was/is a very selfish player who was obsessed with getting base hits over anything else (he could have walked more and had more power if he was willing to take a chance of not getting a precious single) and refused to play center field which would have helped his teams (at least the Mariners) win more games.

Definite HoFer though if he ever retires.

[The Minsky Moment]

He did play CF in Seattle - the situation was murky but I was always under the impression that the Mariners weren't totally sold on him as their CF and liked him in right.  Fangraphs indicates that his range in center was below average and that overall he was an average CF whereas for much of his career he was well above average in RF so that judgment would not have been unreasonable.  OTOH playing guys like Reed and Bloomquist for defensive purposes was unreasonable.

As for batting style  - that debate goes back to at least Ted Williams, maybe longer.  My view is that if a guy is successful, why ask him to screw around with what has brought him success?  Putting balls in play and legging out hits was Ichiro's game and it worked for him.   

On the ARod thing, the relationship with the FO is shall we say interesting.  The Yankees organization has had a lot of frustrations with him over the years for obvious reasons.  That history cost him his chance at 700, which just about anyone else would have gotten.  However, he has been a model baseball citizen since spring 2015 and he does have a good baseball IQ.  Keeping him inside the organization for now has a whiff of Corleone style keeping your enemies close, but who knows - without the pressure of on field performance, he could turn out to be a useful organizational contributor.

[CountDeMoney]

Meh...model baseball citizen or not, an A-Rod without the moral counterbalance of Jeter is simply too much bad mojo.  The organization understands that. 



And I disagree with sbr's Ichiro criticism.  Anybody who puts the ball in play and push the basepaths is worth his weight in sushi.

[sbr]

I would respond but I can't stop watching Buster Posey's new slide technique

https://v.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/89277801001374637881989263360_5727bf26a4b.29.1.4AEFE998-A8F1-4C0C-B59D-9892EC74AE65.mp4?versionId=St7jfPVb2eXBi33i.Iykbk7GUgXp7j0V

Maybe tomorrow

[sbr]

I wonder if they will make a new rule to save Buster from this too?

[derspiess]

I would respond but I can't stop watching Buster Posey's new slide technique

https://v.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/89277801001374637881989263360_5727bf26a4b.29.1.4AEFE998-A8F1-4C0C-B59D-9892EC74AE65.mp4?versionId=St7jfPVb2eXBi33i.Iykbk7GUgXp7j0V

Maybe tomorrow

Awesome.  And I wondered if it were possible for him to look even more like a dork.

Fun Cards game tonight.  Walk-off HBP for Yadi

[sbr]

https://vine.co/v/5bdJuL2I9O7

[Admiral Yi]

Might be time to hitch up the horses to the Cub's bandwagon.