Baseball 2016

[sbr]

Now we are back to the same HoF conversation we always have once the classes are announced.  I don't put that much stock in the numbers.  How do you tell the story of Major League baseball over the last 16 years without Ortiz being a major part?  Back to back walkoffs in the first 0-3 comeback ever, and against the Mighty and Hated Yankees.  He almost singlehandedly beat the Cardinals in 2013.

To me that's Hall of Fame, not Craig Biggio staying healthy for 20 years.

But as I said, we do this every year and we are a few months early this time.

[dps]

5 years early. 

FWIW, a quick glance at Baseball Reference seems to indicate that Ortiz is a noticeably better HoF candidate than McGriff (keeping in mind that those numbers mostly don't consider defense), but we have lots of time to dig into the stats in more detail before Ortiz becomes eligible for induction.

[jimmy olsen]

Interesting fact:  Ortiz only led the league in HRs once.  McGriff did it twice.
Ortiz is the better power hitter of course.  But interesting nonetheless.  The comparison is really closer than one might think because McGriff's prime years were in the 1988-1993 time period when power numbers were a lot lower.

Ortiz is a stronger candidate.

Ortiz - 618 Doubles, 525 HR, 1713 RBI, .286 BA, 1287 BB

McGriff - 441 Doubles, 493 HR, 1550 RBI, .284 BA, 1305 BB

[derspiess]

Ortiz should get in, but IMO the Crime Dog deserves it more.

[The Minsky Moment]

Ortiz should get in, but IMO the Crime Dog deserves it more.

There's a case they both should be in.  But the borderline characterization is fair.

Jimmy - the homeruns are about equal when you adjust for era.  The real difference is that 170 McGriff singles become Ortiz doubles.  That's pretty significant - about 8-10 singles turning into doubles every year.  A good chunk of that is a Fenway park effect; for his career Ortiz has a 376 doubles at home, only 242 on the road.  But let's give Ortiz the full benefit of taking advantage of his environment - turning 10 singles into doubles is worth about 3 runs per year (on a typical linear weights estimate of about 0.3 run value difference).  Maybe credit a couple more runs for the HR difference?  McGriff wasn't exactly a gold glover at first but was capable enough, especially during his Toronto years; he was no speedster on the bases, but certainly more fleet than Ortiz.  That's probably enough to make up 3-5 runs per year. 

As players they seem pretty damn close. Though if you put emphasis on the "fame" part Big Papi is a cinch. 

[sbr]

The Mariners just finished a series with the White Sox winning 2 of 3 games.  The Mariners did not lead for one pitch during the series (2 walkoff HRs).

[jimmy olsen]

538 says the balls are juiced

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

[derspiess]

Shut up, Meg.

[Ed Anger]

Shut up, Meg.

[CountDeMoney]

[The Minsky Moment]

538 says the balls are juiced

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

The factual underpinning is that batted ball velocity is up by about 1.5 mph.  Changes to the ball are one explanation, there are others.  K rates and BB rates all also higher.  So it may be (e.g.) batters are waiting more for the right pitch and then swinging harder.

[jimmy olsen]

538 says the balls are juiced

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

The factual underpinning is that batted ball velocity is up by about 1.5 mph.  Changes to the ball are one explanation, there are others.  K rates and BB rates all also higher.  So it may be (e.g.) batters are waiting more for the right pitch and then swinging harder.

Across the whole league? And why is it happening in the mlb and not AAA? Players who've played in both are hitting mich more homers in the mlb.

[The Minsky Moment]

Across the whole league?

You understand how averages work. right?

[sbr]

 

[jimmy olsen]

Across the whole league?

You understand how averages work. right?

A very large number of players would have to start behaving in such a fashion to raise the average by that much. 538 counters that argument in detail in its analysis.