Falling oil prices....really the work of the Saudis?

[Habbaku]

So Berkut are you pro- or anti-pipeline?

I think it is safe to assume, if he is excoriating the idiotic left for opposing the pipeline, that he is pro pipeline. Just a hunch.

[Barrister]

By the way, do failing oil prices in any way affect the viability of the Keystone pipeline construction?

Unless it goes to some kind of ridiculous extreme, no.

The main reason for Keystone is that there is a significant price differential between western Canadian crude and many of the other benchmarks.  Because oil from Alberta is more difficult to get to the world market, it sells for a discount compared to your baseline west texas intermediate.  Refineries in Texas would love to get their hands on that cheaper oil.

If TransCanada, the company building it, gets into financial trouble that could effect it's viability, but TC is a pipeline company, not a producer, so it's less effected by falling oil prices.

[Barrister]

So Berkut are you pro- or anti-pipeline?

I think it is safe to assume, if he is excoriating the idiotic left for opposing the pipeline, that he is pro pipeline. Just a hunch.

[derspiess]

So Berkut are you pro- or anti-pipeline?

I think it is safe to assume, if he is excoriating the idiotic left for opposing the pipeline, that he is pro pipeline. Just a hunch.

That was my guess, but given that his main message was "everyone is a dumbshit but me" I wasn't sure.

[grumbler]

That was my guess, but given that his main message was "everyone is a dumbshit but me" I wasn't sure.

  I think he thinks you are a dumbshit, too.

[Eddie Teach]

I'm probably a dumbshit for thinking that was funny. 

[Barrister]

So my little brother works for an oilfield service company.  He was asked the other day if he would consider taking a demotion, rather than being laid off.  No new work is coming in anymore.  I imagine scenes like that are happening throughout Alberta.   

[Berkut]

I could not care less one way or the other about the pipeline. We have lots and lots of pipelines already - what is so special about this one anyway?

I guess I am pro-pipeline to the extent that I am pro letting businesses do business, and from what I've seen the objections to this are strictly emotional and political.

But I don't have any vested interest either way.

[The Minsky Moment]

The existing pipeline network from Western Canada lacks sufficient capacity.  So the XL would lower transport cost for Alberta oil and it is a pretty fat pipe - lots of capacity.  If current prices stick it could have more marginal impact on oil sand production than it would have if prices were still at 120+ (at which point production is a no brainer even if carried by two mules and Sister Sarah).

[Razgovory]

The fucker already runs through Missouri.  I see no problem running it through Texas Jr.

[The Minsky Moment]

XL is supposed to have a capacity of about 800K bpd.
Let's assume that absent XL none of that get produced. Which is a very big assumption.
Assume also that oil sand oil has 15% greater carbon impact than regular oil.
Then the carbon impact of XL is equivalent to about 120K additional bpd of oil burned.
Total world oil consumption is around 90 million so that is an incremental effect of about 0.13 percent.
But oil is only one contributor to human caused carbon emission.  Let's say 1/3 (pretty generous given coal is out there).  Then the impact of XL on global carbon is less than 0.05 percent.

That doesn't seem huge but OTOH carbon emission control is all about what can be done at the margins.  So an extra 0.05% may not seem such a huge deal but it is one more thing that will have to be offset.

My own 2c is that we need carbon taxation to control emissions and that a sufficient carbon tax would probably render XL uneconomic.  So in this ideal world XL wouldn't get built.  But it doesn't make sense to block XL on that theory when in fact there is no tax on the horizon.

[MadImmortalMan]

Now assume that instead of XL it all goes by train.

[crazy canuck]

Now assume that instead of XL it all goes by train.

I am not sure that is economical given current oil prices or at least it is a lot less economical than it used to be and as a result transport by rail has dropped off significantly in this country.  Good news for our grain farmers who can finally get their products shipped in a more timely manner.

[dps]

Now assume that instead of XL it all goes by train.

I am not sure that is economical given current oil prices or at least it is a lot less economical than it used to be and as a result transport by rail has dropped off significantly in this country.  Good news for our grain farmers who can finally get their products shipped in a more timely manner.

Heck, in the US we've dismantled a lot of our railroads.

[Tonitrus]

Now assume that instead of XL it all goes by train.

I am not sure that is economical given current oil prices or at least it is a lot less economical than it used to be and as a result transport by rail has dropped off significantly in this country.  Good news for our grain farmers who can finally get their products shipped in a more timely manner.

And some Quebecers might tell you about the danger in transporting combustibles by train in large quantities (though pipelines have been known to explode too).