Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I saw some analysts claiming just last week that Russia may have functionally ran out of usable manpower, contradicting more common claims that Russia had filled its manpower gaps. Will be interested as more analysis comes out on that topic, as it could become a large issue.

Is this a contradiction?
The amount of manpower they burn through they could have filled their gaps many times over but have how hit a point where this is very difficult.

[Legbiter]

Both sides seem to be piling in today but the russians are definitely on the back foot.   

[Josquius]

Read one prediction Russia might use this "provocation" to actually call the war a war, a defence of Russia against the Ukrainian aggressor.
Which will open up opportunities for the regime.
Plus lol.

[Tamas]

Seems like either Russia has absolutely no spare troops to react to a raid, or the Ukrainians are pushing a proper counteroffensive on Russian soil. I'd prefer the former because the latter sounds super-risky.

[Sheilbh]

The sheer magnitude of WW2 is hard to grasp for me. This war seems extremely intense to me, but if you compare numbers with WW2, it is somehow just a skirmish.

Yeah it is difficult to comprehend - especially when you look at it globally and the impact of the war everywhere (was thinking about this reading David Van Reybrouck's book on Congo).

Seems like either Russia has absolutely no spare troops to react to a raid, or the Ukrainians are pushing a proper counteroffensive on Russian soil. I'd prefer the former because the latter sounds super-risky.

Well lest we forget Prigozhin's relatively small convoy almost got to Moscow with barely any resistance.

[DGuller]

Well lest we forget Prigozhin's relatively small convoy almost got to Moscow with barely any resistance.

Yeah, but the dynamic was totally different.  With Prigozhin, anyone in his way had to consider the possibility whether they were fighting tomorrow's boss.  Centuries of evolution taught the peasants to keep their options open when big guys fight over who would be their master.  I don't think anyone on the Russian side is thinking that they'll have to be subordinated to Ukraine in the future.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe - but also I think possibly there were many (definitely reliable) forces to stop him on the way and that Russia could be fairly fragile/brittle (and not just militarily). I don't think there's no spare troops but that Russia's not able to just pivot.

And that Ukraine achieved surprise here seems striking and unusual in this war.

[Grey Fox]

Seems like either Russia has absolutely no spare troops to react to a raid, or the Ukrainians are pushing a proper counteroffensive on Russian soil. I'd prefer the former because the latter sounds super-risky.

Super risky how?

[Jacob]

Maybe - but also I think possibly there were many (definitely reliable) forces to stop him on the way and that Russia could be fairly fragile/brittle (and not just militarily). I don't think there's no spare troops but that Russia's not able to just pivot.

And that Ukraine achieved surprise here seems striking and unusual in this war.

I saw an analysis saying that Russia does have available troops but they are conscripts (just like the troops stationed in Kursk, apparently). The problem Putin has is that using conscript troops will be very unpopular and thus a negative factor for maintaining regime stability.

18-year old conscripts being fed into the meatgrinder human wave tactic is going to resonate differently with the Russian public than volunteers, criminals, hapless foreigners bamboozled in various ways, and poor people from far flung regions.

[jimmy olsen]

Seems like either Russia has absolutely no spare troops to react to a raid, or the Ukrainians are pushing a proper counteroffensive on Russian soil. I'd prefer the former because the latter sounds super-risky.

Seems like a serious push

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821249833211953197.html

[viper37]

Seems like either Russia has absolutely no spare troops to react to a raid, or the Ukrainians are pushing a proper counteroffensive on Russian soil. I'd prefer the former because the latter sounds super-risky.

Super risky how?

If they have no spare troops, it's okay.  They'll have to move troops from the other Ukrainian fronts to counter attack the raid.

If it's a proper incursion by Ukraine and not just a diversion, and Russia does have means to counter it, and Ukraine wants to gain territory, it will get bloody and Ukraine risks losing troops it can't afford to lose.

It's a risky move.  It can pay a lot though.

[Zoupa]

I still think it's not good news. The worse the situation gets for Ukraine, the more they'll be bringing the war on russian soil.

Can you expand your reasoning a bit more? I'm not sure I understand.

I'm no expert, but I've been following this quite intently and supporting a brigade in particular over the past 2 years. Over time you get to know the soldiers (only a few of them, as I speak neither Ukrainian or russian). Anyways. All that to say that the general feeling they have is that the worse the situation gets for them in the east, the more they'll push into russia proper.
They explain it as a mix of being tired of getting hammered by artillery and air strikes, sitting in trenches which inevitably they have had to retreat from for about a year; going into russia is easier as they haven't fortified or mined anything (or almost anything); revenge; and finally a sort of Hail Mary, we're slowly losing so let's go fuck shit up in their supply lines, maybe that'll buy us some time or someone will put a bullet in putin.

This push into Kursk, contrary to previous incursions, is made by Ukrainian brigades, not the weird "Free Russia" legions we saw previously. It's also much larger in terms of men and equipment. It seems to have been planned meticulously, with perfect OPSEC, cyber attacks in the warm-up and knocking out ALL cell phone towers in a 40 km radius. I don't understand it, and I'm scared it's the hail mary scenario, where Ukraine knows they are losing and are trying anything.

Anyways. As I said, I'm no expert. Just anxious.

[Jacob]

I see. That makes sense. Thank you.

[Iormlund]

You don't escalate when things are going well.

That being said, perhaps that is one of the strategic objectives: showing the Western powers that Russia can be hit and nothing will happen.

[Tamas]

Well this doesn't have to be their Ardennes Offensive, could be their Market Garden. In either case let's hope it goes better for them.