Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

Putin's dementia is no longer concealable.

[Jacob]

What are the US internal politics like on this? Is the GOP lining up to support the nation in this moment of crisis? Are they arguing that Biden is "too weak"? Or are they chafing to kiss and make up with Putin sempai once they call the shots again?

[Sheilbh]

Yes, but it'll be worthwhile to see what - say - China's response is.

Yeah at Munich the Chinese foreign minister said: "the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded, Ukraine is no exception."

Interesting to see if that holds.

Also I think that, as during the Cold War, part of the purpose of the UNSC isn't for it to do anything but for performance and putting things on the record.

[Jacob]

Also I think that, as during the Cold War, part of the purpose of the UNSC isn't for it to do anything but for performance and putting things on the record.

Exactly.

[Syt]

Yes, but it'll be worthwhile to see what - say - China's response is.

I assume if there's any vote (just to force Russia come out and veto it against most other members) they'll just abstain.

[Syt]

What are the US internal politics like on this? Is the GOP lining up to support the nation in this moment of crisis? Are they arguing that Biden is "too weak"? Or are they chafing to kiss and make up with Putin sempai once they call the shots again?

I've seen some comments from the right over recent weeks that brought up Biden's supposed collusion with Ukraine and that his constant talking about Russia going to invade would just lead to unnecessary destabilization (or serve to distract from his abysmal approval ratings), but not sure if it's mainstream.

[Maladict]

They're crossing the border now.

[Syt]

But I guess you also have this:

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sen-cruz-issues-statement-after-putin-escalates-aggression-against-ukraine-and-deploys-troops

SEN. CRUZ ISSUES STATEMENT AFTER PUTIN ESCALATES AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE AND DEPLOYS TROOPS

HOUSTON, Texas – U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) issued the following statement after Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would recognize the independence of Ukrainian territories and deploy forces into them  —

"Vladimir Putin's announcement today is just the latest step in his obsessive drive to rebuild the Soviet Union, at the expense of the national security of the United States and our allies. He seeks to make the lives of Americans worse, and he will use whatever new territory, resources, and power that he gains to do so—including control over energy he would seize in Ukraine. His announcements today, including the recognition of non-governmental controlled areas of  Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and that Russia would be deploying forces into Ukraine, must be met with an immediate response.

"For months, Ukraine's political leaders and its civil society pleaded with the United States to help them counter Russia by immediately sanctioning Nord Stream 2 and providing them with the weapons they need to defend themselves. We committed as a nation in the Budapest Memorandum to helping ensure their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it is gravely in our national security interests to do so. The crisis that now threatens to engulf them will also create unknowable and acute dangers for our European NATO allies, whom we are bound by treaty to help defend.

President Biden has refused to meet these commitments, and Biden-Harris officials are to an enormous extent directly responsible for this crisis. He and his administration instead settled for an endlessly deferred and wholly uncredible strategy of responding to Putin's aggression after an invasion. They have pursued bizarre tactics like declassifying American intelligence and trying to shame Putin. That approach has failed.

No one is calling for the United States to intervene militarily on Ukraine's behalf, and it would be a catastrophic mistake to do so. Instead, the United States must impose devastating sanctions against Putin's interests, including immediate and mandatory sanctions permanently putting an end to his Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

[FunkMonk]

What are the US internal politics like on this? Is the GOP lining up to support the nation in this moment of crisis? Are they arguing that Biden is "too weak"? Or are they chafing to kiss and make up with Putin sempai once they call the shots again?

Seems like it's mainly the default R take on weak D foreign policy. So par for the course politics.

Can't see the Russian apologists taking over on this one since it's naked aggression but Russian apologia crosses the political divide here now so who knows.

[Zanza]

I somehow feel the relevance of Nordstream 2 for Russia is overstated.

I can see and do support the argument that Europe and especially Germany should wean itself of Russian gas to increase its strategic flexibility. 

But whether Russia sells its gas via one pipeline or another seems fairly meaningless. They built the Nordstream and South Stream pipelines to circumvent Ukraine, but that reason falls away if they actually invade.

[Tamas]

One could argue, I guess, that blocking Nordstream 2 makes it more important for Russia to subdue Ukraine, as they'll need the pipe going through there.

[Sheilbh]

Also a new pipeline will increase Europe's dependency on Russian gas because there'll be more of it. I thought South Stream had been cancelled although there's pipes to Turkey and a connection to Bulgaria.

I don't know about the relevance to Russia - I think that's secondary I think why it matters is in Europe and the EU. I think on the wider picture, if there's an invasion, then I just can't see how things carry on. I think the economic disruption across Europe - but especially CEE is going to be huge - even away from gas and the obvious, see reports that Russia might not allow sanctioning nation's planes through their airspace which would have a big impact on routes to Asia. There's talk of restricting Russian access to USD and GBP (and maybe other currencies) a lot of the impact would basically be to roll back the last 30 years and globalisation around Russia.

There are plans for all of the next gen EU and the energy transition, there's the covid recovery precedent and there's markets willing to lend at historically low rates. If Europe wants to wean itself off Russian gas, all of the tools are there to do it by 2030 - with a ratchet of sanctions because what's Russia going to do if we don't need their gas, stop exporting all those Russian manufactured goods?

I think energy politics, Russia, climate and expanding a strong recovery across Europe (especially in areas that are more economically tied to Russia) are all linked - and I think Macron probably has a similar view. But there's a reluctance to take the steps that would help - and moving on one would help on all the others. I think that is a big part of the solution if the EU chooses to do it - but I think there may even be an element of force in this that I really think, if there's an invasion beyond these "republics", I think the day after impacts are going to be enormous. It may be like 2014 - some sanctions are introduced, but four years later they host a World Cup and have the Presidents of France and Croatia as guests at the final, but I think not.

Not least because of Putin's lines on sanctions:

They are trying to blackmail us again. They are threatening us again with sanctions, which, by the way, I think they will introduce anyway as Russia's sovereignty strengthens and the power of our armed forces grows. And a pretext for another sanctions attack will always be found or fabricated. Regardless of the situation in Ukraine.

There is only one goal – to restrain the development of Russia. And they will do it, as they did before. Even without any formal pretext at all. Just because we exist, and we will never compromise our sovereignty, national interests and our values. I want to say clearly and directly that in the current situation, when our proposals for an equal dialogue on fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and NATO, when the level of threats to our country is increasing significantly, Russia has every right to take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security. That is exactly what we will do.

[Admiral Yi]

Hey, how about that American credibility!! 

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally - again - Zelenskiy seems to have hit the right note. The reports on his response seem very solid:

Bermet Talant
@ser_ou_parecer
Zelensky has called his nation for calm: Ukraine is ready for whatever comes but is committed to political resolution & won't fall for provocation. Called for emergency meetings of UN Security Council,Normandy Format&OSCE. "It's important to see who's our real friend and partner"
"There are no grounds for chaotic actions. We want peace. We are on our land. We are not afraid of anything or anyone. We won't cede anything to anyone. It's not February 2014. It's 2022. A different Ukraine."

[Sheilbh]

Hey, how about that American credibility!! 

Wut?