Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

When was the last time NATO attacked Russia? Whereas Russia has invaded their neighbors multiple times recently. Why they get the benefit of the doubt I have no idea.

[Sheilbh]

Possibly. I'm more concerned concerned about Russia withdrawing (at least temporarily) from a forum that gave room to informal discussions in a situation like this.

Yeah - I feel like that matter more if for whatever reason there's no talks between the sides at all and you need an informal setting that gives an excuse for a meeting, like the US and Iran or different sides on a civil war.

Russia in this scenario has had multiple meetings with other countries, a couple of days of negotiating with the Ukrainians in the Normandy format, plus OSCE meetings. I'm not sure one other format necessarily matters. Sadly it migth be more valuable in the future when, we're back a little bit to Russia hving far more limited contact with the West.

Separately it feels really incredible watching this run so obviously through a playbook like this - Russian foreign ministry again stating that a "genocide" is under way in Donbass. I suppose it gets rid of any doubt about those tower explosions back in 99.

BTW I think Zelensky has cancelled his Munich trip.

The latest is he's still planning to go - I feel like the Biden administration has a point here, from five minutes ago:

Biden admin officials have privately urged Zelensky that they don't believe it is a good idea for him to leave Ukraine & visit Munich tomorrow given concerns about a possible incursion, according US officials & a sr Ukrainian official tell us, @Phil_Mattingly & @mchancecnn.

On the other hand given the reports that Russia has a list of Ukrainians who will be arrested or assasinated, I can understand getting out the country.

Edit: On running very obviously throught the playbook in such a blatant way, Ukrainian Military Intelligence (via translate):

The Public Relations Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is authorized to state that Ukraine's military intelligence has information that Russian special services have mined a number of social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk in order to further undermine them. 1/3
These measures are aimed at destabilizing the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of our state and create grounds for accusing Ukraine of terrorist attacks.2 / 3
The Public Relations Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine urges Donetsk residents not to leave their homes and not to use public transport.

February 18, 2022

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[DGuller]

It's mind-boggling that Zelensky is still planning on leaving the country on the eve of invasion.  It looks either criminally stupid or criminally cowardly on his part.

[Tamas]

It's mind-boggling that Zelensky is still planning on leaving the country on the eve of invasion.  It looks either criminally stupid or criminally cowardly on his part.

Yes. This is a terrible idea.

[Tamas]

A part of a gas pipeline near Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway region of People's Republic of Luhansk, caught fire late on Friday after a blast, Russian news agencies reported, citing correspondents on the ground.

The pipeline was struck by "a powerful explosion," Interfax news agency reported, citing a local natural gas supplier.

The new report of a pipeline fire comes as the US and others have been warning of "false flag" incidents that could be used by Russia as a pretext for an attack on Ukraine.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels are claiming the fire is the result of Ukrainians blowing up a gas pipeline near Luhansk.

They really ARE going through all recommended actions in the False Flag Guidebook.

[Syt]

As Ukraine accuses Russia of trying to create a fake crisis in the breakaway eastern region of Donbas, the BBC has obtained evidence that casts doubt on claims made by pro-Russian separatists that a Ukrainian assault is imminent.

Earlier today, the leadership of the pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk rebel republics in eastern Ukraine released videos giving details of the evacuation of residents.

In one of the videos, the leader claims that, due to Ukrainian shelling, the order has been given to evacuate civilians, saying: "Today, Friday 18 February...".

Following reports on social media, the BBC has checked the metadata of the videos posted, and has found that the metadata shows they were recorded on Wednesday 16 February - two days ago, before the recent flare-up in hostilities.

This suggests that the escalation was pre-planned.

[DGuller]

I really don't get Zelensky's game plan lately.  His strategy of downplaying the threat of invasion seems increasingly bizarre.  I get that he doesn't want to cause panic, but isn't there a point where you have to rally the nation rather than keep ignoring the elephant in the room?  If I were living in Ukraine, I would be very unsettled about the quality of my country's wartime leadership right about now.

[Syt]

Biden just said that NATO will defend every inch of its territory, but also that it will not send troops to Ukraine (while still providing support and aid to the Ukrainians and threatening sanctions on Russia).

[Tamas]

Biden just said that NATO will defend every inch of its territory, but also that it will not send troops to Ukraine (while still providing support and aid to the Ukrainians and threatening sanctions on Russia).

Also on answering the question he said he believes Putin has already made the decision to invade, everything points toward this.

[Sheilbh]

Biden just said that NATO will defend every inch of its territory, but also that it will not send troops to Ukraine (while still providing support and aid to the Ukrainians and threatening sanctions on Russia).

Yeah - I mean that's all we can do really. I don't think there was ever going to be a security guarantee/mutual defence for a non-NATO member on a border and in frozen conflict with Russia.

The best we can do is help secure NATO members and do all we can to support Ukraine.

[mongers]

People just take 3-4minutes to catch the RT on the hour headlines, it's laughable if it weren't so serious, it portrays the false-flag/propaganda exactly as you'd expect:

Genocide against the people of Donbass

Bus convoys of people, women, children and the old being evacuated.

Attacks on the gas pipeline in Luhansk.

A car bomb outside the municipal centre building, the RT reported just happened to be 200 metres away at the time, so was able to promptly 'report' what had happened (not happened). 
Etc

[Tamas]

Sorry for the caps I am too lazy to re-type from Twitter.

U.S. SATELLITE IMAGE COMPANY MAXAR SAYS LATEST IMAGES REVEAL MILITARY ACTIVITY AT A NUMBER OF KEY LOCATIONS ACROSS BELARUS, CRIMEA AND WESTERN RUSSIA

[Syt]

From the German version of RT (since they lost their broadcast license, the website is all they have left to push their propaganda):



Headline: "Exercise for missile troops after escalation in Donbas: Russia's warning to slow-witted ones in the West"

Text: "The exercise of the missile troops on 19th February in South Russia could not happen at a better time. It could be the final chance to deter the apparently Western-planned offensive against the Donbas that the Kiev regime has been tasked with."

(The text in German is a bit awkward and doesn't make for a very good translation to English.)

[Tamas]

[frunk]

People just take 3-4minutes to catch the RT on the hour headlines, it's laughable if it weren't so serious, it portrays the false-flag/propaganda exactly as you'd expect:

Genocide against the people of Donbass

Bus convoys of people, women, children and the old being evacuated.

Attacks on the gas pipeline in Luhansk.

A car bomb outside the municipal centre building, the RT reported just happened to be 200 metres away at the time, so was able to promptly 'report' what had happened (not happened). 
Etc

"Let's provoke the enemy right when they have their military prepped and ready to attack us.  That's the best time."