Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

I am with Jake here.

I don't see how this ends with Russia looking like they pulled one over - exactly the opposite.

In fact, if Russia does NOT invade, I am not sure what Putin could have done to more thoroughly damage his position in respects to NATO then this entire fucking mess he just pulled.

A few months ago people were arguing about how good it was for Germany to tell NATO and the US to fuck off over Nordstrom 2...

Agreed. Which is why if I had to bet I'd still bet on war. At this point it's the only chance left for Putin to come out ahead.

[Berkut]

I don't see a path forward that doesn't have a pretty start wake up call to the West that Russia is willing and capable of putting armies in the field to potentially use conventional military force to seize what they want, when they want it.

I would imagine the Baltic states are probably freaking out...quietly.

[Berkut]

I am with Jake here.

I don't see how this ends with Russia looking like they pulled one over - exactly the opposite.

In fact, if Russia does NOT invade, I am not sure what Putin could have done to more thoroughly damage his position in respects to NATO then this entire fucking mess he just pulled.

A few months ago people were arguing about how good it was for Germany to tell NATO and the US to fuck off over Nordstrom 2...

Agreed. Which is why if I had to bet I'd still bet on war. At this point it's the only chance left for Putin to come out ahead.

Which is crazy. I mean, you are right in broad strokes.

But if you replace "Putin" with "Russia" the analysis is entirely different. War is the one way to make sure Russia does NOT come out ahead. All the practical scenarios that include war are terrible for Russia. Even winning will be a net negative outcome.

But of course, "Russia" is not calling the shots - Putin is.

[Tamas]

Well exactly. I am pretty sure for Putin, Russian national interests are trumped by Putin's personal interests.

[Jacob]

Well exactly. I am pretty sure for Putin, Russian national interests are trumped by Putin's personal interests.

What's the point of being an autocratic president-for-life if you can't put your own interest before your country's?

[Berkut]

The dictator IS the country!

[PJL]

The dictator IS the country!

L'etat, c'est moi!, as a certain French Sun King once said.

[Tamas]

Cyber attack on Ukrainian defence ministry website, banks – reports
Ukraine's cybersecurity centre said websites of the Ukrainian defence ministry and banks Privatbank and Oshadbank have been subject under a cyber attack, Russia's TASS news agency reported.

The Ukrainian cybersecurity centre said Russia could be to blame for the attack, TASS reported.

A message on the home page of the Ukrainian defence ministry website said it was under maintenance.

[Sheilbh]

And apparently Putin's rejected the request to recognise the "republics" in Lukhansk and Donetsk. He's insisting on the "full" implementation of Minsk - by which presumably he means the Russian interpretation, which is politically impossible for Ukraine.

So it looks like he's basically wanting the West to force Ukraine to accept that.

[Tamas]

And apparently Putin's rejected the request to recognise the "republics" in Lukhansk and Donetsk. He's insisting on the "full" implementation of Minsk - by which presumably he means the Russian interpretation, which is politically impossible for Ukraine.

So it looks like he's basically wanting the West to force Ukraine to accept that.

I haven't read that anywhere yet, but it's potentially a big deal. Would have been a very easy CB to invoke this week.

[FunkMonk]

I thought the Biden (apparent) policy of just coming out with intel as they got it was interesting.

Intell gets reports of a planned false flag op? OK, just announce it straight out. Don't try to intercept the op, or use the fact that you know, and maybe they don't know that you know, as a way of foiling it....just announce the plan.

Makes it pretty hard to actually execute on the op when you just announce to the world that it is coming.

Of course, you are also risking revealing your sources as well.

"I've been working on this false flag op for months and they just..... tweeted it"

[The Larch]

Well, I think that we can say that Scholz has some serious testicular fortitude, at the very least. 

Vladimir Putin has said western assurances that Ukraine will not join Nato anytime soon were not good enough and that Russia needed to resolve the issue now.

Speaking at his joint press conference with German chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin also said Moscow was ready for talks with the US and Nato on limits for missile deployments and military transparency.

Scholz said Ukraine's membership was not on the agenda, using the opportunity to make a joke at Putin's expense, according to the FT's Max Seddon.

Biting gag from Scholz just now.

He says he doesn't think he or Putin will have to face the issue of Ukraine's Nato membership while they're in office.

*pause*

[looks at Putin] "I don't know how long the president intends to stay in office."

[The Larch]

And apparently Putin's rejected the request to recognise the "republics" in Lukhansk and Donetsk. He's insisting on the "full" implementation of Minsk - by which presumably he means the Russian interpretation, which is politically impossible for Ukraine.

So it looks like he's basically wanting the West to force Ukraine to accept that.

I believe that Zelinsky had said that if Russia recognized Donetsk and Luhansk Ukraine would take it as their definite withdrawal from the Minsk agreement.

[Sheilbh]

Well, I think that we can say that Scholz has some serious testicular fortitude, at the very least. 

Yes - and good on him for calling out the difference between this and Kosovo. Kosovo was to prevent a possible genocide (although Putin added that their view of what's happening in Donbass is that it's genocide).

[The Brain]

In a deafening show of support I am wearing my badass Ukraine t-shirt tonight.