Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Just now I was like, "thank Hod Orban's trip to Moscow is not being reported on, it's embarrassing enough without the Western public knowing about it" then I opened the Guardian's live coverage on Ukraine and the subtitle is "Putin to meet Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán in Moscow"

It seems Orban is more important to Putin than Johnson BTW, as their phone call scheduled for today has been cancelled.

Unlike with his previous half-yearly visits to Moscow, Orban actually tried to make it clear to his public that he carefully coordinated with NATO allies before undertaking this trip, and he is going to negotiate more and cheaper gas for the country. One thing that's weird, however, is that it only was a few months ago, apparently, that Hungarian negotiators resisted Russian insistence of installing higher capacity pipes for the connection coming in from Serbia, indicating we did not want more gas back then.

[Sheilbh]

Johnson's call with Putin was scheduled for yesterday. It was cancelled because Johnson had to be in the Commons on the Gray report and hasn't been rescheduled.

I think Johnson's going to Kyiv (joint/coordinated trip with the Dutch and Polish PMs) - he was meant to be travelling with Truss who was then going to go to Moscow for a meeting with Lavrov but she's tested for covid so her bit of the trip is off. I think Ben Wallace is going to Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland now - and Shoigu is, I think, coming to London for a meeting with Wallace.

I keep thinking about the difference in risk assessment from the US/UK and Ukraine and think Alexander Clarkson made a good point that actually the other possibility is that Putin just keeps those troops on the border of Ukraine for a very long time. The reason Ukraine doesn't want panic is because of the economic effects (and business in Ukraine is already becoming borderline uninsurable with a 4-500% increase in premiums compared to last year). The West thinks it'll be over in a snap but there is the possibility that Russia keeps the forces on the border, so the risk is always there for Ukriane - it becomes less easy to easy to govern and suffers economic consequences etc. And the West possibly isn't prepared for that and how to support Ukraine in that long scenario - everything they're doing is to address what they perceive as a short sharp risk.

[Tamas]

Maybe but the Russia rhetoric will be hard to maintain on the long term without doing something.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe - we've talked about there not really being a face-saving off-ramp for Putin at this point and I think just dragging it on and quietly removing troops in Summer once the rest of the world's moved on (but Ukraine's economy is even more damaged) could be that.

[The Larch]

Does anyone know exactly what part of the Minsk Agreement is Ukraine not fulfilling, as the Russian UN ambassador was complaining about?

[Duque de Bragança]

Maybe - we've talked about there not really being a face-saving off-ramp for Putin at this point and I think just dragging it on and quietly removing troops in Summer once the rest of the world's moved on (but Ukraine's economy is even more damaged) could be that.

We also talked about an attack just after the Olympics end, as in 2014. 

[Tamas]

In the public/PR portion of his meeting with Putin (pleasantries exchanged around a table), Orban declared his visit is among other things a "mission of peace" saying no EU leader wants a war and they are ready to negotiate.

[Sheilbh]

We also talked about an attack just after the Olympics end, as in 2014. 

Yeah - I'm not making any predictions here

Separately turns out GdM was right and I was wrong. I still don't think it's a formal alliance or will have any mutual defence aspects - but Poland, Ukraine and the UK are doing a trilateral pact around regional security.

As I mentioned there are the examples of the Quad, Aukus, the new Franco-Greek alliance etc - this seems to be a trend of basically "coalitions of the willing" of small groups of countries willing to cooperate further than other partners going ahead and doing that. These are obviously enabled by the large very multi-lateral, very broad cold war era treaty organisations and alliances - I suppose the question is whether they strengthen them providing for more cooperation for countries who want to do that, or if they are going to corrode the broader alliance and fragment security. I'm not sure

[Sheilbh]

Does anyone know exactly what part of the Minsk Agreement is Ukraine not fulfilling, as the Russian UN ambassador was complaining about?

My understanding is it's a dispute over decentralisation. As part of Minsk Ukraine agreed to decentralise powers - particularly in relation to Donetsk and Luhansk.

The Russian goal is basically that Ukraine becomes effectively almost a federation state and those regions would be able to veto any further attempts by Ukraine (centrally) to move into Western institutions like NATO or the EU. The agreement envisages a very high level of autonomy for those regions and possibly in the future other eastern regions. Kyiv is willing to implement that to a degree, but not to the level that is acceptable to Russians (which is viewed as basically surrender by Ukrainian nationalists and strongly pro-western Ukrainians). At a minimum it includes amnesty for the separatists, local involvement in appointing federal prosecutors and courts, allowing cooperation agreements between Luhansk and Donetsk with neighbouring Russian regions and a very large degree of autonomy that would involve Kyiv negotiating over national policy with Donetsk and Luhansk.

My understanding is that Kyiv has never really implemented that because it's politically more or less impossible - there have been various proposed solutions by French and German diplomats which only get so far. The Franco-German approach is to try and find a muddle that will be acceptable in Kyiv while sufficient for Russia, but every time they try it falls in between the stalls. Russia is very focused and precise on what it wants so a muddle doesn't work - and even these compromise approaches are not politically feasible in Ukraine. I'm not sure there is a solution through Minsk but I still suspect the Normandy Format is how this will end and there'll be a Minsk 3 round of talks.

[Tamas]

Military personnel 'killed' after Ukrainian drone strike on the frontline in Eastern Ukraine

One person has been killed Tuesday, according to the head of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). (Reports)

[grumbler]

They may have been the same ones reported by Danish media as passing through the Sound, leaving the Baltic, a little while earlier. Or those could've been going to take part in Operation Annoy Irish Fishing Vessels.

The report says that they are Northern Fleet vessels, not Baltic Fleet.  The OAIFV ships were Baltic Fleet, as I understand it.

[Jacob]

So Lavrov is sending letters to individual NATO and OSCE countries - including Denmark - saying the same stuff they're saying, but implicitly attempting to intimidate the countries one by one.

[Josquius]

In the public/PR portion of his meeting with Putin (pleasantries exchanged around a table), Orban declared his visit is among other things a "mission of peace" saying no EU leader wants a war and they are ready to negotiate.

I guess that's a positive sign?
Beats the usual "the west are threatening war!"

[Tamas]

In the public/PR portion of his meeting with Putin (pleasantries exchanged around a table), Orban declared his visit is among other things a "mission of peace" saying no EU leader wants a war and they are ready to negotiate.

I guess that's a positive sign?
Beats the usual "the west are threatening war!"

No because prior to the trip he was loudly declaring he wasn't going to be dealing with the Ukraine stuff. And playing Chamberlain on his own initiative claiming he represents the EU is IMHO terrible.

[Jacob]

U.S. claims Russia has developed elaborate false-flag plot for Ukraine
Alleged scheme includes video featuring staged explosions, actors playing mourners, according to U.S.

The U.S. accused the Kremlin on Thursday of an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbour.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the scheme included production of a graphic propaganda video that would show staged explosions and use corpses and actors depicting grieving mourners.

The U.S. has not provided detailed information backing up the claims.

The alleged plan for the fake attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people was revealed in declassified intelligence shared with Ukrainian officials and European allies in recent days.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-false-flag-1.6338428

... more details in the link, but no mention of radio stations.