Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

Extract the signal from the noise and the message is consistent.  The US is selling its diplomatic and potentially military support to the highest bidder.  The United States is transforming from the pillar of the postwar order that guaranteed peace and security for 80 years into a 21st century version of the early modern exploitative overseas venture corporations, like the Dutch or English Indies companies.

The leaked document proposal to Ukraine is insane but also revealing.  It is a variant on a typical form of a commercial agreement between two corporations. Trump thinks that being President means he literally owns the United States.  And he is operating his American property as if it were any other real estate development venture he owns or controls. "Foreign policy" is just a corporate negotiation.  Once you realize that, everything he is doing logically follows.

Of the bit I've seen that was the thing that struck me. The language isn't a treaty, it's a commercial contract. Couldn't help but think it's also a poison pill for anyone else which I suspect the US will start inserting into other ingredients - like the Dutch and British East Indies Companies with their rival factories and monopolies.

Totally agree on the real estate point. I've had a slightly different view that he basically thinks being President is like being a corrupt Mayor of New York City selling permits. But they're not a million miles away from each other.

[viper37]

I can't see the article. What are the terms?

The link still work for me, but here is the text:



The United States and Russia moved toward a head-spinning reset of their relationship on Tuesday, agreeing to work together on ending the Ukraine war, financial investment and re-establishing normal relations. The meeting between senior officials from both countries was a striking display of bonhomie after three years of American efforts to isolate Moscow for its 2022 invasion.
After more than four hours of talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both sides had agreed to work on a peace settlement for Ukraine as well as to explore "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians," both geopolitically and economically.
"We weren't just listening to each other, but we heard each other," Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said. "I have reason to believe that the American side started to better understand our positions."
The meeting, the most extensive negotiations in more than three years between the two global powers, was the latest swerve by the Trump administration in abandoning Western efforts to punish Russia for starting Europe's most destructive war in generations. It signaled Mr. Trump's intention to roll back the Biden administration's approach toward Moscow, which focused on sanctions, isolation and sending weapons to Ukraine that helped kill tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, American officials did not dwell on Russia's violation of international law in attacking Ukraine, its alleged war crimes or the three years of devastation that Russian shelling and bombardment had wrought in parts of Ukraine. Instead, they repeatedly lauded Mr. Trump for trying to stop the fighting by talking to Russia in a way that his predecessor did not.
"For three years," Mr. Rubio said, "no one else has been able to bring something together like what we saw today, because Donald Trump is the only leader in the world that can."

The talks showed that rather than keeping the pressure on Moscow, Mr. Trump was eager to work with Russia to end the war — an approach that would most likely fulfill many of the demands of its president, Vladimir V. Putin — and that he was prepared to cast aside the worries of American allies in Europe.
The meeting came nearly a decade after Russia interfered in the 2016 election to Mr. Trump's benefit, but then saw Mr. Trump adopt few Russia-friendly policies during his first presidency.
Tuesday's meeting in Saudi Arabia was the latest sign that Mr. Trump's second term could be different. In Europe and Ukraine, apprehensions are likely to deepen that the United States and Russia could try to strike their own peace deal, sidelining Kyiv and American allies.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine reacted angrily to Tuesday's meeting, saying he was postponing his own planned visit to Saudi Arabia — he had planned to arrive on Wednesday — to protest that Ukraine had not been invited to Tuesday's talks.
It was important, he said that negotiations do not happen "behind the backs of the key subjects." Any decisions, he added, "cannot be imposed" on Ukraine.


The meeting came less than a week after Mr. Trump's lengthy phone call with Mr. Putin and took place at a palace in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, whose crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has been seeking to elevate his country's role on the world stage.
Michael Waltz, Mr. Trump's national security adviser, and Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy and a longtime friend of Mr. Trump, joined Mr. Rubio for the meeting. Mr. Witkoff called the meeting "positive, upbeat, constructive."
The Russian delegation included Yuri Ushakov, Mr. Putin's foreign policy adviser, and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund. Speaking to Russian television, Mr. Dmitriev described a jovial atmosphere — "there were a lot of jokes" and a "very tasty" lunch — while Mr. Ushakov said that both sides also discussed preparations for a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin. He offered no details on when a summit might take place.
Russia appeared to be using Tuesday's talks to cater to Mr. Trump's interest in profits and natural resources, arguing that American oil companies and others stood to gain hundreds of billions of dollars by again doing business in Russia.
Mr. Dmitriev, who worked with Mr. Witkoff to broker the release last week of an American schoolteacher jailed in Russia, said he would seek to restart economic cooperation with the United States to "rebuild communication, rebuild trust, rebuild success."
"U.S. oil majors have had very successful business in Russia," Mr. Dmitriev said in a brief interview on Tuesday before the talks began, offering an example of how the countries could rebuild business ties. "We believe at some point they will be coming back, because why would they forgo these opportunities that Russia gave them to have access to Russian natural resources?"
Russian commentators have expressed the hope that talks with the Trump administration and a peace deal in Ukraine could pave the way for the United States to lift the severe sanctions imposed by the Biden administration against Moscow.
Leading Western oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, joined many other businesses in pulling out of Russia three years ago amid outrage over Mr. Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Dmitriev said he would present the American delegation with an estimate showing that American companies lost $300 billion by leaving Russia.

Speaking to reporters after Tuesday's meeting, Mr. Rubio described a three-step plan for what the United States and Russia planned to do next.
First, he said, both countries would negotiate how to remove restrictions placed on each other's embassies in Moscow and Washington, which are operating with skeleton staffs after years of tit-for-tat expulsions.
In addition, he said, the United States would engage with Russia about "parameters of what an end" to the Ukraine war would look like.
"There's going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others," Mr. Rubio said. "But ultimately, the Russian side will be indispensable to this effort."
And finally, he said, Russia and the United States would explore new partnerships, both in geopolitics and in business. He described them as "the extraordinary opportunities that exist should this conflict come to an acceptable end."
Tuesday's discussions were the first time after Mr. Putin's invasion in early 2022 that broad delegations of senior American and Russian officials are known to have met in person.
In Europe and Ukraine, the news of Tuesday's talks had been met with confusion and concern. While Mr. Rubio characterized the talks as preliminary, there was widespread criticism in Europe that Mr. Trump's approach to Russia had not been coordinated with allies of the United States.
But for Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed, hosting the talks has offered a major opportunity to solidify his status as a global leader with influence that extends beyond the Middle East.
The Saudis, in a Foreign Ministry statement, said they were welcoming the Russians and Americans "as part of the kingdom's efforts to enhance security and peace in the world."
Like other countries in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has avoided taking sides in the Ukraine war.
It has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine while cultivating close ties with Russia. When a Ukraine peace conference was held in Switzerland last June that excluded Russia, Saudi Arabia and the neighboring United Arab Emirates refused to sign the final joint statement.

[Jacob]

[Valmy]

We're taking bribes to allow Russia to do what it wants. Basically.

[Jacob]

Bottom line, though, is that the economic isolation of Russia is very likely about to end.

How does this affect the war efforts - both the Ukrainian and Russian?

[Josquius]

Bottom line, though, is that the economic isolation of Russia is very likely about to end.

How does this affect the war efforts - both the Ukrainian and Russian?

Potentially doom.
Russias imminent economic collapse is what Ukraine has been counting on.
Though hopefully things move slowly there. And it's not like Russia has much America wants to buy. It needs Europe - though I do wonder there, even if all sanctions end right now and everyone is brainwashed to forget Russia is a problem, I do think Europe has moved on from needing Russian gas.

The US has just capitulated to Russia.
Link

The country has betrayed everyone.  Republicans are chanting in joy as their world burn.

They really do seem to be in a kneejerk state of whatever Biden stood for, we stand foe the opposite.
Such a shame they got to not being Russias bitch before they got to not drinking bleach.

[Sheilbh]

Bottom line, though, is that the economic isolation of Russia is very likely about to end.

Yeah I'm sort of with Jos on this. Economic sanctions are broadly an area where Europe has a lot of power - and I believe there's vastly more frozen Russian assets in Europe than the US. I think in the first Trump administration when he blew up the Iran deal the European countries tried to carry on - but it became pretty clear that US sanctions and pressure made that unviable. So they had to follow at least some of the way. I'm not sure it would work the other way and that the US would be able to force Europe to drop sanctions.

I think it could clearly help for imports and spare parts but I don't think the US was ever a major export market for Russia in the way Europe was (in part because pipelines). It would help with other countries who are currently working around Western sanctions - but also they're already working around Western sanctions. I'm not sure what the impact would be - good for Russia certainly, but I think someway short of an end of economic isolation. And the other side which would hurt Russia is Trump's approach on fossil fuels generally, both with domestic production but also pressure on basically every other oil and gas producer to ramp up their own production which would not be good for Russia's economy.

I'm not really sure how what's basically almost a war economy at this point would adjust to a partial opening - I could see it causing some issues and would need to be managed. Having said that Russia's technocrats have proven pretty good at adapting.

I do think Europe has moved on from needing Russian gas.

Pipeline gas - European imports of Russian fossil fuels are at their highest level since the war started. LNG at a record high but also oil (via Azerbaijan mainly).

[Legbiter]

Pipeline gas - European imports of Russian fossil fuels are at their highest level since the war started. LNG at a record high but also oil (via Azerbaijan mainly).

Yeah plus the Europeans (except the Scandies) circumvented their own very tough sanctions by selling as usual to russia through 3rd party intermediaries in Central Asia. It also doesn't help that France would burn to the ground if they delayed retirement by 2 minutes to pay for more defense and Germany is in this sclerotic parody.

[crazy canuck]

Trump says Ukraine should not have started the war.

[grumbler]

Trump says Ukraine should not have started the war.

The Ukrainians should have learned the lesson the Poles learned when they attacked that German radio station in September 1939.

[Zanza]

Trump says Ukraine should not have started the war.

He says they should have made a deal. Which is of course silly.

The even worse part is that he takes over the Russian narrative that Selensky is illegitimate because there have been no elections under martial law in Ukraine. You cannot negotiate with someone you say has no legitimacy.

Looks like a 100% sell out to the Russians. Let's see what the price of Taiwan will be.

[Josquius]

Trump says Ukraine should not have started the war.

He says they should have made a deal. Which is of course silly.

The even worse part is that he takes over the Russian narrative that Selensky is illegitimate because there have been no elections under martial law in Ukraine. You cannot negotiate with someone you say has no legitimacy.

Looks like a 100% sell out to the Russians. Let's see what the price of Taiwan will be.

That is worrying to think about.
Russia has nothing America wants.
Taiwan... I can imagine many powerful people have eyes on the Taiwanese chip industry and can see a lot of potential in bringing it to the us.
The techbro influence could be particularly iffy here.

[Solmyr]

Nuclear proliferation is a realistic measure that would give Ukraine significant deterrence. European powers have the means to do that. More realistic than large ground forces.

Yep, Nukes for Poland, Ukraine, Sweden and the three Baltic republics. 

No Finland? 

I specifically left out Finland as they have the near most extensive artillery force in Europe and they certainly the European country that has gutted their military the least during the peace dividend years.

Though it would be amusing to have Finland equipped with tactial nuke and those deployed within 100km of Leningrad. 

There's an active lobby here in Finland to station US nukes in the country.

[Duque de Bragança]

Pipeline gas - European imports of Russian fossil fuels are at their highest level since the war started. LNG at a record high but also oil (via Azerbaijan mainly).

European is vague though. The usual suspects (east of France basically) continue to import gas from Russia through third parties.
Those who imported their LNG from elsewhere, rely not so much on gas (hello nuclear). Of course decommissioning nuclear plants to please the greens, using coal pissing the greens, relying even more on gas does not work well.

[Sheilbh]

European is vague though. The usual suspects (east of France basically) continue to import gas from Russia through third parties.
Those who imported their LNG from elsewhere, rely not so much on gas (hello nuclear). Of course decommissioning nuclear plants to please the greens, using coal pissing the greens, relying even more on gas does not work well.

Well it depends what you mean by import. France, Belgium and Spain are 85% of European imports of Russian LNG. I've no doubt that's because they are the countries that have larger LNG terminals while east of France the infrastructure is more pipeline. The end users will be in the rest of Europe so I'm not sure European is vague in this context - it's Europe in action.