Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

For now.

[Duque de Bragança]

Unsurprisingly, Lula on the same line as Mijairzinho (Bolsonaro) on the Russian war on Ukraine (again):
Makes Scholz look good (Scholz is trying at least). 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-mercosur-olaf-scholz/

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Brazil's freshly inaugurated President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traded barbs late Monday on who's responsible for Russia's invasion in Ukraine, as the latter suggested that Kyiv could also be at fault.

Scholz arrived to the capital Brasília late Monday as part of a South American trip aimed at advancing a long-delayed EU-Mercosur trade and political cooperation deal, and to rally countries of the Global South behind the West's support for Ukraine.

Yet on Ukraine, Scholz received a brutal rebuff.

Following the amicable start of a joint press conference, in which the Brazilian president said that he wants to finalize the EU trade deal "by the end of the current semester," the mood turned sour after Lula raised the war in Ukraine and rejected Germany's appeal to support Kyiv with weapons and ammunition.






"If one doesn't want to, two can't fight," Lula told reporters, implying Ukraine as well had a role in Russia's invasion.

"I think the reason for the war between Russia and Ukraine also needs to be clearer. Is it because of NATO? Is it because of territorial claims? Is it because of entry into Europe? The world has little information about that," Lula added.

While he said that Russia committed "a classic mistake" by invading Ukraine's territory, he also argued that neither side was showing sufficient willingness to resolve the war via negotiation: "No one wants to back down a millimeter," he said.

The remarks by the left-wing president could be read as an affront particularly to Western leaders, who cheered Lula's election last year as a chance to lead Brazil out of the international isolation that former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro had established.

Scholz — one of the first foreign leaders to visit the country following Lula's inauguration at the beginning of this month — earlier in the press conference said, "We are all happy that Brazil is back on the world stage."

After Lula's remarks on Ukraine, the German chancellor stated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was not just a European problem, but "a blatant violation of international law" and that it undermines "the basis for our cooperation in the world and also for peace."

Lula, for his part, criticized mediation efforts to date: "Until now, I sincerely haven't heard very much about how to reach peace in this war." He instead proposed to establish a peace-oriented club of nonaligned countries like China, Brazil, India and Indonesia, which he said have thus far not been involved in discussions on the war.

He also rejected the possibility that Brazil could help Ukraine to fend off Russian missile or drone attacks by selling its units of the German-made Gepard air defense tanks along with corresponding ammunition: "Brazil has no interest in handing over munitions that can be used in the war between Ukraine and Russia," Lula said. "We are a country committed to peace."

Scholz retorted by arguing that Brazil's past may have been much less peaceful if its South American neighbors were applying a similar imperialistic logic as Putin is currently doing in Ukraine.

"What kind of territorial conflicts would all be possible if everyone simply leafed through their history books, like the Russian president, and looked at where a border used to be? If you make that the yardstick, then we won't have peace in the world," he said.

Bloomberg a little more "diplomatic"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/lula-rejects-weapons-to-ukraine-plan-proposed-by-germany-s-scholz

Lula Brushes Off Germany's Appeal for Brazil to Send Weapons to Ukraine

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva turned down a German request to send ammunition to Ukraine as part of the international effort to help Kyiv repel the Russian invasion.

"Brazil has no interest in passing on ammunition so that it will be used in the war," Lula told reporters at a press conference in Brasilia alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Scholz has been trying to rally support for Ukraine during a four-day visit to South America after agreeing earlier this month to send German battle tanks, armored fighting vehicles and a Patriot missile battery to the government in Kyiv.

While the front lines in the conflict have been relatively stable so far this year, Russia has been attacking residential areas and the Ukrainian power grid with missiles, and both sides are looking to build up their supplies ahead of renewed fighting expected in the spring.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric offered the clearest response to Scholz's appeals, condemning President Vladimir Putin's "war of aggression."

"We will always defend multilateralism, the peaceful solution of conflicts and, above all, the validity of human rights," Boric said after meeting with Scholz in Santiago Sunday. Boric said he had promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to help with the clearing of land mines after the war.

"I am very thankful for Chile's clear position on this question and really also touched because it is important that there are states which help to argue here with a clear position," Scholz said at a joint presser with Boric. "It is also important that there are other democracies in South America which share this view."

In Argentina, however, Scholz was less successful, with President Alberto Fernandez refusing to offer any military assistance follow a meeting in Buenos Aires on Saturday. "The chancellor and I wish for peace to return to the region as soon as possible," Fernandez said. 

Blaming Zelenskiy

Scholz has tried to establish a rapport with the South American leaders by talking about his own experiences on their continent. In Buenos Aires, he told his audience that he had first visited Argentina in the 1980s as a young Socialist and then again later as a tourist in Patagonia. In Santiago, he recalled a visit to Chile during the final phase of the Pinochet dictatorship.

On his last stop in Brasilia, he encountered in Lula a leader who remains ambivalent about the Russian invasion and who has in the past criticized Zelenskiy and blamed him for the conflict.

Lula, in line with Brazil's traditional foreign policy, likes to portray himself as a mediator of conflicts in a multipolar world, rather than an automatic ally of the US and the European Union. A German government official suggested that Lula's reluctance to condemn Putin may also be shaped by the large quantity of fertilizers that Brazilian farmers buy from Russia.

At their joint appearance, Scholz said that many countries, including Brazil, could get drawn into territorial conflicts if other leaders decided to "leaf through the history books" like Putin - a reference to the Russian leader's claims on Ukrainian territory, which are disputed by many academics.

"Brazil does not want to have any participation, even indirect," Lula said. "We should be looking for who can help to find peace between Russia and Ukraine."

[mongers]

Old bloke goes batty, news at 11.

[Josquius]

Suddenly the hope brought by the Brazilian election looks shaky.

[Barrister]

Suddenly the hope brought by the Brazilian election looks shaky.

He's an unreconstructed leftist who politically came of age during the military dictatorship.  During his first presidency Brazillian foreign policy was dominated by the BRIC grouping of developing powers (being Brazil, Russia, India and China).

He may be a better President than Bolsonaro, but I wouldn't get your "hope" up too much.

[Admiral Yi]

Another tankie unveiled.

[Valmy]

Suddenly the hope brought by the Brazilian election looks shaky.

He's an unreconstructed leftist who politically came of age during the military dictatorship.  During his first presidency Brazillian foreign policy was dominated by the BRIC grouping of developing powers (being Brazil, Russia, India and China).

He may be a better President than Bolsonaro, but I wouldn't get your "hope" up too much.

Well it was BRICS and included South Africa. I always found that somewhat wishcasting. If we are talking about actual emerging powers it is really only IC.

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are developing into something alright but into world powers? Not a chance.

[Sheilbh]

Well it was BRICS and included South Africa. I always found that somewhat wishcasting. If we are talking about actual emerging powers it is really only IC.

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are developing into something alright but into world powers? Not a chance.

Wasn't it just made up by a Goldman Sachs guy to describe the big emerging market economies. It just took on a life of its own - in part because the BRICS started having meetings together and everyone else started referring to it.

It's not a surprise given Lula, or Brazil's stance generally, or Latin American reluctance to just row in behind the US/join blocs. It also isn't particularly important in the context of Ukraine.

In the context of more global competition, I think the West could maybe do with a bit of reflection on how it engages with the rest of the world and gets them on side. I think the approach with India is possibly a useful model.

[Jacob]

Well it was BRICS and included South Africa. I always found that somewhat wishcasting. If we are talking about actual emerging powers it is really only IC.

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are developing into something alright but into world powers? Not a chance.

I think the idea was that Brazil and RSA wanted to be more independent of US/Western European influence and be "big players" regionally able to treat with Washington and Brussells as equals. India kind of is in that position already, but they're happy to get more on that wagon to increase their clout and influence. Meanwhile, China and Russia encourage the idea because they see it as a bolstering their position in opposition to the US and EU; they then frame it as being about principles but it's mostly just a raw power thing.

[Valmy]

Well it was BRICS and included South Africa. I always found that somewhat wishcasting. If we are talking about actual emerging powers it is really only IC.

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are developing into something alright but into world powers? Not a chance.

Wasn't it just made up by a Goldman Sachs guy to describe the big emerging market economies. It just took on a life of its own - in part because the BRICS started having meetings together and everyone else started referring to it.

It's not a surprise given Lula, or Brazil's stance generally, or Latin American reluctance to just row in behind the US/join blocs. It also isn't particularly important in the context of Ukraine.

In the context of more global competition, I think the West could maybe do with a bit of reflection on how it engages with the rest of the world and gets them on side. I think the approach with India is possibly a useful model.

I know I am an American. Traditionally everybody who is not Canada in this hemisphere tends to regard anything the US wants them to do with a great deal of suspicion at best. So yeah I would have been shocked and amazed if Brazil had been like "oh yeah let's send some military aid to Ukraine" for that reason but also for the fact that that sounds expensive and probably not where Brazil should be putting its resources.

Should we try to do better? Sure. And sometimes we do. But for all sorts of reasons it never really lasts.

[Valmy]

Well it was BRICS and included South Africa. I always found that somewhat wishcasting. If we are talking about actual emerging powers it is really only IC.

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are developing into something alright but into world powers? Not a chance.

I think the idea was that Brazil and RSA wanted to be more independent of US/Western European influence and be "big players" regionally able to treat with Washington and Brussells as equals. India kind of is in that position already, but they're happy to get more on that wagon to increase their clout and influence. Meanwhile, China and Russia encourage the idea because they see it as a bolstering their position in opposition to the US and EU; they then frame it as being about principles but it's mostly just a raw power thing.

Yeah I got that. It was just the absurdity of it. Sort of like Russia's version of NATO.

[Jacob]

Yeah I got that. It was just the absurdity of it. Sort of like Russia's version of NATO.

  yeah

I mean, that was one of the themes of the Putinistas propaganda before the war. The Chinese have been laying into it heavily also. They'd probably love to be the leaders of the anti-NATO. But they may have to put a bit more work in to become actual leaders.

[mongers]

With all the recent talk about tanks, most of which will take several months to be deployed, let not forget the artillery; France has just announce another 12 Caesar 155mm mobile systems to be sent, that's on top of the 18 already in use.

More 'heavy lifting' by Denmark, apparently they're sending their entire 'fleet' of 19 Caesar to Ukraine. 

And buried within the news about the British tanks, was the possible more significant aid to be provided by the 30 SA90 SP 155mm guns, just so long as they don't catch fire too often.   

[Legbiter]

And buried within the news about the British tanks, was the possible more significant aid to be provided by the 30 SA90 SP 155mm guns, just so long as they don't catch fire too often. 

They finally get to do what they were designed to do, kill Russians in the East instead of languishing in a warehouse somewhere. Same with the Leopards, Challengers and the Abrams.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtDoPvaCbFQ

Death ray?