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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Grey Fox

Both Orban and Erdogan will eventually die. Orban's loyalty to Putin is probably not so easily transferable in a Post Ukraine Liberation world.

I don't know if Erdogan's Turkey will keep being so Islamic when he dies.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Barrister

Quote from: Grey Fox on January 27, 2023, 02:26:45 PMBoth Orban and Erdogan will eventually die. Orban's loyalty to Putin is probably not so easily transferable in a Post Ukraine Liberation world.

I don't know if Erdogan's Turkey will keep being so Islamic when he dies.

Orban is only 59 years old.  Erdogan a bit older at 68.

If waiting for either/both to die is your strategy that could still be a matter of decades.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Grey Fox

We never know what can happen, don't negotiate with bad faith actors.

NAFTA 2.0 is a mistake we made because we didn't wait for Trump to leave office.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Iormlund

Fast-tracking Ukraine would be a pretty bad move for the EU. Not only are they very far from meeting all criteria, but we still have to deal with Poland and Hungary.

In any case even the initial wave of Warsaw Pact accession took over 10 years. Can't see Ukraine getting in any faster than 15.

Iormlund

Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 02:16:13 PMAgriculturally there's a reason it's always called the breadbasket of Europe, so yeah, investing in Ukrainian agriculture should pay off in a big way.

How would an organization that has a huge surplus of food production benefit from even more of it?

The Larch

No amount of sympathy will get Ukraine into the EU once the war is over, it'll be a several decades process. NATO maybe, the EU no way.

That doesn't mean that the EU will not get itself involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine, of course.

Sheilbh

Quote from: The Larch on January 27, 2023, 04:32:20 PMNo amount of sympathy will get Ukraine into the EU once the war is over, it'll be a several decades process. NATO maybe, the EU no way.

That doesn't mean that the EU will not get itself involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine, of course.
Agree on both.

Although I think there is a risk over that time period that the EU falls out of love with the idea of Ukrainian accession and they get locked into a situation like the West Balkans or Turkey before them - which would probably curdle domestically into resentment.
Let's bomb Russia!

Barrister

Quote from: Sheilbh on January 27, 2023, 04:34:16 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 27, 2023, 04:32:20 PMNo amount of sympathy will get Ukraine into the EU once the war is over, it'll be a several decades process. NATO maybe, the EU no way.

That doesn't mean that the EU will not get itself involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine, of course.
Agree on both.

Although I think there is a risk over that time period that the EU falls out of love with the idea of Ukrainian accession and they get locked into a situation like the West Balkans or Turkey before them - which would probably curdle domestically into resentment.

Remember the entire point of the Maidan protests was Ukrainians desire to be more "European", not to mention this entire war.  Heck you have Ukraine applying for full membership already.  Putting Ukrainian membership in the deep freeze would almost certainly cause great resentment and hostility.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Barrister

Quote from: Iormlund on January 27, 2023, 03:56:18 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 02:16:13 PMAgriculturally there's a reason it's always called the breadbasket of Europe, so yeah, investing in Ukrainian agriculture should pay off in a big way.

How would an organization that has a huge surplus of food production benefit from even more of it?

Have you not heard of comparative advantages?  A euro spent on agriculture in Ukraine will get more dividends than a euro spent in Germany or wherever.

And food can be exported.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Larch

Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 04:44:21 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 27, 2023, 04:34:16 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 27, 2023, 04:32:20 PMNo amount of sympathy will get Ukraine into the EU once the war is over, it'll be a several decades process. NATO maybe, the EU no way.

That doesn't mean that the EU will not get itself involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine, of course.
Agree on both.

Although I think there is a risk over that time period that the EU falls out of love with the idea of Ukrainian accession and they get locked into a situation like the West Balkans or Turkey before them - which would probably curdle domestically into resentment.

Remember the entire point of the Maidan protests was Ukrainians desire to be more "European", not to mention this entire war.  Heck you have Ukraine applying for full membership already.  Putting Ukrainian membership in the deep freeze would almost certainly cause great resentment and hostility.

It's not about freezing Ukraine's candidacy, it's a long administrative process that in the best of cases takes years or decades. If you handwave it for political convenience it'll open a huge can of worms.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 04:44:21 PMRemember the entire point of the Maidan protests was Ukrainians desire to be more "European", not to mention this entire war.  Heck you have Ukraine applying for full membership already.  Putting Ukrainian membership in the deep freeze would almost certainly cause great resentment and hostility.
I don't disagree. But Ukraine's big, poor and heavily agricultural - expansion is always difficult (see France's veto of North Macedonia - who changed the name of their country to get membership) and requires unanimity. It's not going to be a quick process.

I think it's a real challenge for the EU at the minute because Ukraine is literally fighting to join. The symbolic importance of Europe is not lost on the EU and I don't think anyone can fail to be moved by the Rada clapping in the EU flag when accession talks opened. The challenge is for the EU to manage that, keep Ukraine moving forward towards accession and also make sure that expectations are grounded/realistic.

But I think there is a risk that we see in the West Balkans and Turkey where expectations have been dashed or accession has ended up in stasis - and there is a lot of disillusionment with Europe as an option.
Let's bomb Russia!

DGuller

I have a feeling that once the war is over, assuming it ends well for Ukraine, it's going to be forgotten pretty quickly.  Right now Ukraine is a de facto ally of both EU and NATO, so a lot of people are feeling legitimately embraceful of it, but the Western attention span is pretty short when we're not facing a crisis.  That said, if Ukraine manages to win both the war with Russia and then the war on the Russian way of governance, then EU and NATO will be open to admitting it.

DGuller

Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 04:46:13 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on January 27, 2023, 03:56:18 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 27, 2023, 02:16:13 PMAgriculturally there's a reason it's always called the breadbasket of Europe, so yeah, investing in Ukrainian agriculture should pay off in a big way.

How would an organization that has a huge surplus of food production benefit from even more of it?

Have you not heard of comparative advantages?  A euro spent on agriculture in Ukraine will get more dividends than a euro spent in Germany or wherever.

And food can be exported.
:yes: Free trade agricultural policy is a core founding principle of EU.

Habbaku

The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.

-J. R. R. Tolkien

Jacob

Yeah, a dollar spent in Ukraine may result in more food produced than a dollar spent in Western Europe, but West European farmers probably won't be convinced by those advantages.