Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

France pulling a reverse Germany and going back on their pledge to send lecrecs?

Not really.
https://www.businessinsider.com/france-leclerc-tanks-ukraine-official-worry-about-logistics-2023-1

They worry about the logistics of having many different systems to train Ukrainians on.

[Syt]

 

[The Brain]

You can't live your life through the rear-view mirror.

[Admiral Yi]

Shoulda paid a little more for the deluxe graphics package.

[Grey Fox]

A tank's a tank.

[Legbiter]

At least they know it's German, that's something right?

[Iormlund]

I would've expected an IFV at most. I guess my expectations are too low.

[Legbiter]

This is apparently one of the more potent memes the NAFO fellas have developed and used on Russian trolls. Enjoy.

[crazy canuck]

Why wouldn't it all just be given to the Finns?

[PJL]

Looks unrealistic - can't see Ukraine being in the EU by 2027. 2037 at the earliest.

[Barrister]

Looks unrealistic - can't see Ukraine being in the EU by 2027. 2037 at the earliest.

I feel like once this war is over Ukraine is going to be fast-tracked into NATO/EU almost immediately (unless if that is somehow prohibited by whatever peace deal).

[Sheilbh]

I feel like once this war is over Ukraine is going to be fast-tracked into NATO/EU almost immediately (unless if that is somehow prohibited by whatever peace deal).

Not sure - the political intent/will is there, but as has been pointed out if Ukraine were to join the EU as is, Poland would be a net contributor (as opposed to the biggest net recipient) and the vast majority of CAP would be going to Ukraine. Ukraine is very poor (pre-war, Ukrainian GDP per capita was around the level of Indonesia or Guatemala) and does have issues with corruption.

If it was just a foreign policy issue maybe, but it would transform many countries' relationship with the EU, present huge challenges for the EU's institutions and risks for politically powerful constituencies in member states. There's a lot of work to do within the EU before Ukraine can join. Plus Ukraine would still need to meet the acquis which would involve lots of reforms and while there's lots of support for Ukraine, expansion has always had mixed popularity. My guess is at least 5-10 years.

I think the EU would create something in the interim that is more than just accession status (a la the West Balkans - frozen in accession talks for decades) that was meaningful for Ukraine. But I don't think it's going to be a quick process.

NATO can move more quickly because it's a different sort of organisation but I think that probably depends on how at risk countries feel Ukraine still is because of what Article 5 means. I think it's more likely to happen quickly but also a maybe.

Edit: To be clear - absolutely not impossible on either front, but I don't think it'll be quick and easy.

[Barrister]

I feel like once this war is over Ukraine is going to be fast-tracked into NATO/EU almost immediately (unless if that is somehow prohibited by whatever peace deal).

Not sure - the political intent/will is there, but as has been pointed out if Ukraine were to join the EU as is, Poland would be a net contributor (as opposed to the biggest net recipient) and the vast majority of CAP would be going to Ukraine. Ukraine is very poor (pre-war, Ukrainian GDP per capita was around the level of Indonesia or Guatemala) and does have issues with corruption.

If it was just a foreign policy issue maybe, but it would transform many countries' relationship with the EU, present huge challenges for the EU's institutions and risks for politically powerful constituencies in member states. There's a lot of work to do within the EU before Ukraine can join. Plus Ukraine would still need to meet the acquis which would involve lots of reforms and while there's lots of support for Ukraine, expansion has always had mixed popularity. My guess is at least 5-10 years.

I think the EU would create something in the interim that is more than just accession status (a la the West Balkans - frozen in accession talks for decades) that was meaningful for Ukraine. But I don't think it's going to be a quick process.

NATO can move more quickly because it's a different sort of organisation but I think that probably depends on how at risk countries feel Ukraine still is because of what Article 5 means. I think it's more likely to happen quickly but also a maybe.

Edit: To be clear - absolutely not impossible on either front, but I don't think it'll be quick and easy.

So while in a just world Russia would be paying reparations to Ukraine after the war, I don't really see that happening in more than a symbolic way, so I hope Europe (along with US and Canada) step up in a big way to help rebuild post-war.

Ukraine absolutely still struggles with corruption (surprised nobody posted about the arrests/resignations a couple of days ago) but seems to at least be contending with it.  Agriculturally there's a reason it's always called the breadbasket of Europe, so yeah, investing in Ukrainian agriculture should pay off in a big way.

We'll see.  I mean I can see it having a somewhat unique status within the EU for a long time, maybe like what you're suggesting, but a lot closer to full membership than being in accession status.

[Valmy]

Adding more countries into NATO requires we appease the malcontents Hungary and Turkey somehow.

[Barrister]

Adding more countries into NATO requires we appease the malcontents Hungary and Turkey somehow.

"once this war is over"